www.newspolls.org/story.php?story_id=33
A close race decided by assumptions" WRITER/REPORTER: Thomas Hargrove and Guido H Stempel III SOURCE: Scripps Howard News Service DATE: October 14, 2004 BODY: Democrat John Kerry leads President Bush by 5 percentage points, ye t Bush is ahead of Kerry by 4 points. Both statements are true even though they're based on the same poll. The latest survey conducted at Ohio University's Scripps Survey Research Center offers a rare glimpse into the extremely close 2004 presidential race and the impact that different assumptions about likely voters have on survey results. Unlike most other polls that report just one set of figures on the presid ential race, this survey of 1,022 adult residents of the United States p rovides so-called "horse-race" data for Kerry and Bush based on a variet y of methods. These somewhat conflicting findings offer insight into the mechanics of public opinion research. The most elementary kind of poll is a household survey in which adults ar e interviewed by telephone after they are randomly selected. Researchers usually begin at this level since it makes the fewest assumptions about who should be interviewed, although household polls include people who are not voters, not citizens or even not living legally in the United St ates. At this broadest level of public opinion research, President Bush is doin g poorly. Only 43 percent approve of the job he has done as president an d 53 percent say it's "time for someone new" when asked, "Would you like to see President Bush be re-elected to a second term?" Among this vast group, Kerry is trouncing Bush 50 percent to 44 percent. Poll respondents were asked: "Are you currently regis tered to vote at the address where you now live?" Registered voters tend to be older than av erage, are more likely to have children and more likely to own their own homes. Among 867 registered voters in the survey, the race tightens slightly wit h Kerry at 50 percent and Bush at 45 percent. From this point on, the 15 5 people who said they are not currently registered will be ignored. An important way to determine who's likely to show up at polling places o n Nov. The registered voters were asked: "How often would you say that y ou vote in major elections for president, governor or US senator?" Sev enty-two percent said "always," sixteen percent said "almost always." When looking only at people who say they "always" or "almost always" vote , the race changes. Bush now leads with 48 percent to Kerry's 47 percent among people with a history of voting. They will participate in ele ctions when they are unhappy with the direction America is taking. And t here is a definite unease about America's war on terrorism, its military operations in Iraq, the economy and vexing domestic problems like healt h care and the solvency of the Social Security program. The poll asked: "Do you think America basically is headed in the right di rection or in the wrong direction?" For many months, the Scripps Center has tracked a broad unease on this question. In the current poll, 46 per cent say the nation is on the wrong path and 42 percent say it's headed in the right direction. Sixty percent of registered voters who say they "rarely" vote in major el ections also say America is headed in the wrong direction. If they go to the polls next month, they will support Kerry over Bush by more than a 2-to-1 margin. These marginal voters are often ignored by pollsters because, by their ow n admission, they usually aren't players in the political process. But " rarely" does not mean never, and there are plenty of signs that marginal voters are taking interest in this election. Voters were asked: "How much attention would you say you have been giving to the presidential election. Would you say you have been following the race very closely, somewhat closely or not too closely?" About 90 perce nt of regular voters say they are either "very closely" or "somewhat clo sely" watching the race. But about 75 percent _ an extraordinarily high number _ of registered voters who "rarely" vote in major elections say t hey also are watching the presidential race closely. Another way to gauge how likely a voter is to cast a ballot is by asking how much passion he or she feels for the candidates. People in the poll who expressed an intention of supporting either Bush or Kerry were asked : "How certain are you that you will vote for this man?" Bush has a slight advantage over Kerry when it comes to the depth of feel ing in his supporters. Eighty-nine percent of voters who say they suppor t Bush also say they are "very certain" they will vote for him, compared to 80 percent of Kerry's supporters. If more stringent assumptions are made on who is certain to vote, Bush ta kes the lead over his challenger Among people who say they are "very cer tain" of their vote and who "always" participate in major elections, Bus h leads Kerry 52 percent to 48 percent. The project was funded in a grant from th e Scripps Foundation. A survey of this type has a margin of error of about 4 percentage points when looking at all participants in the poll. The margin rises, however, when subgroups within the poll are examined. The margin is nearly 6 per cent for the most likely voter calculation. Fill in the form with your email address and click "Get Story" button to retrieve the text of the story. SUMMARY: John Kerry leads the presidential race by 5 percentage points am ong registered voters. But George W Bush leads among the most likely of voters. Assumptions pollsters make in this close race can determine the leader in a poll. WRITER: Thomas Hargrove is a reporter for Scripps Howard News Service. Guido H Stempel III is director of the Scripps Survey Research Center at Ohio University.
org is the official Web site for the Scripps Survey Research Ce nter at Ohio University. Results of surveys administered by the center, as well as stories posted on this site, can be used by journalists, news media, and the public, provided credit is given to the center (for data ) and the news service (for stories).
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