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| 2004/10/14 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:34118 Activity:high |
10/13 CNN: http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/14/snap.poll/index.html "Early poll: Kerry clear winner in debate" CBS: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/10/13/opinion/polls/main649227.shtml "Uncommitted voters pick Kerry" Fox: "Three's a Charm, Bush campaign suggests the president put in his best debate performance yet" ABC: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=163784 "Last Presidential Debate Is a Draw" Summary: CNN/CBS say that Kerry won. Fox and ABC say it's a tie. We expected Fox to deny any Bush defeat, but what about ABC? Is it yet another subsidiary of Sinclair? Or is it yet another Fox alike, co-owned and run by Bush friend/family? \_ eh, I watched it, IMO, Kerry won. \_ eh, I watched it, IMO, Bush won. \_ Fox is aligned with the Bush Corporation. ABC is owned by Disney. Traditional family value, conservative. We all know Kerry won, but these news broadcast corporations can say whatever they want and change how voters vote. \_ Traditional family values like homosexuality? \_ We all know Kerry won? Kerry looked stiff as a board and did not pass the living-room test. \_ ABC's poll had 38% Republicans, 30% Democrats. Democrats said Kerry won, 81% to 5%, Republicans said Bush won, 72% to 12%, independents said Kerry won. So really, ABC's poll says Kerry won, it just was skewed by their sample population. -tom \_ CNN said this was the first debate where they had as many Democrats watching as Republicans. Previously the people they talked to broke down as the ABC poll. I do agree with the suggestion that independents gave it to Kerry in all three debates. \_ I got calls from two Kerry-supporting friends within minutes of the end of the debate, and they both said Kerry won and Bush acted the fool. A blog post by another friend, a Bush-supporter called it a big victory for Bush. Another blogger friend, an Anyone-But-Bush fanatic, wrote that it was a slamdunk for Kerry. It sounds to me like no one's convincing the faithful one way or the other. |
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| www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/14/snap.poll/index.html John Kerry appeared to gain more momentum he ading toward November 2, easily beating President Bush in the third and final debate, a poll taken late Wednesday night suggests. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. The numbers were similar to the results of a poll taken the night of the first debate September 30 in Miami, Florida. That night Kerry was favore d by a 53 percent to 37 percent margin. Kerry and Bush were almost even in the second debate on October 5, with t he numbers falling with the margin of error. The respondents Wednesday were 511 registered voters who watched the deba te. Their political affiliations broke down as 36 percent Republican, 36 percent Democratic and 28 percent independent. The poll is a reflection of immediate impressions of only those voters wh o saw the debate on television, and cannot be applied to all registered voters. Views of all Americans can change in the days after a debate. Kerry scored big gains, as 42 percent of respondents said they had a more favorable opinion of him after the debate. When asked who would handle domestic issues better, Kerry scored higher i n health care (55-41). There was no clear leader on the economy (Kerry 5 1, Bush 46), education (Kerry 48, Bush 47) or taxes (Bush 50, Kerry 47). Kerry's biggest win came on the question of who expressed himself better, where 61 percent of respondents chose him over Bush (29 percent). The president was viewed as more likeable, but Kerry appeared to responde nts as having the better understanding of issues (49-37). As expected, both campaigns declared their candidate the clear victor. "I think tonight that Americans saw someone who's ready to be commander-i n-chief," said Mary Beth Cahill, Kerry's campaign manager. "Someone who has plans for where he wants to lead this country. I think that he did e xtraordinarily well and he delivered a faithful and optimistic vision of where the country can go in the future." Karl Rove, a senior adviser to Bush, disputed the accuracy of such instan t polls, noting that a similar snap poll in 1984 showed Walter Mondale w on the second debate with President Reagan. "The president was the clear, commanding victor tonight," Rove said. "It' s going to give us a great momentum rolling out on the trail here for th e last 19 days." |
| www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/10/13/opinion/polls/main649227.shtml Before the third debate, 31 percent of uncommitted voters said Kerry had clear positions on the issues. That number went up to 59 percent after t he shootout in Tempe. Bush scored some of his highest ratings when he discussed his personal faith and said that he prays a g reat deal. Immediately after the debate, CBS News interviewed a nationally represent ative sample of more than 200 debate watchers assembled by Knowledge Net works who were "uncommitted voters" - voters who are either undecided ab out who to vote for or who have a preference but say they could still ch ange their minds. Some 71 percent of these voters said the debates had helped them decide w hom to vote for this year. The remaining 29 percent said the debates wer e not helpful in this way. While the uncommitted voters came away from the debate believing that bot h men had clear positions on the issues, Kerry's position improved drama tically. The percentage that thought he had clear positions almost doubled during the debate: Before the third debate, only 31 percent said Kerry had clea r positions on the issues. After the debate, 64 percent said he had clear posi tions on the issues. Immediately after the debate, CBS News interviewed a nationally represent ative sample of more than 200 debate watchers assembled by Knowledge Net works who were "uncommitted voters" - voters who are either undecided ab out who to vote for or who have a preference but say they could still ch ange their minds. Kerry scored a clear victory over Mr Bush on Social Security, with 71 pe rcent of the uncommitted voters saying the Democrat would protect the pr ogram for them. Overall, 54 percent of these voters came away from the debates with a bet ter opinion of Kerry. Many said the debates had no effect on their opinion of the candidat es. Thirty-six percent said that of Kerry, and 45 percent said that of t he president. The uncommitted voters in the poll graded the candidates with a sliding s cale using remote controls during the debate. In their real-time evaluat ions of the debate: Kerry scored well on "kitchen table" issues. Most uncommitted voters we re approving when the Democrat talked of lost jobs and American workers subsidizing the loss of their own jobs. Kerry got some of his highest ra tings of the night when he said he would raise the minimum wage and woul d fight for women to have equal pay. The president scored some of his highest ratings when he discussed his personal faith and said that he prays a great deal - especially when he said that his faith gives him strength and calms him in times of trouble . He also got high marks when he talked about his wife Laura, and how th ey met. Mr Bush also did well when he discussed his view on the sanctity of marr iage, and as he explained his stand against partial birth abortion. This CBS News poll was conducted online by Knowledge Networks among a nat ionwide random sample of 211 uncommitted voters - voters who don't yet k now who they will vote for, or who have chosen a candidate but may still change their minds - who have agreed to watch the debate. Knowledge Net works, a Silicon Valley company, conducted the poll among a sample of ad ult members of its household panel, a nationally representative sample g iven access to the Internet via Web TV. This is a scientifically representative poll of undecided voters' reactio n to the presidential debate. The margin of sampling error could be plus or minus 7 percentage points for results based on the entire sample. |
| abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=163784 Among registered voters who watched the debate, 42 percent called Kerry t he winner, 41 percent said Bush won and 14 percent called it a tie. That 's similar to the outcome of the second debate, while Kerry won the firs t among viewers by a nine-point margin. The audience for the third debate was a bit more Republican in its allegi ance: Among viewers, 38 percent identified themselves as Republicans, 30 percent as Democrats and 28 percent as independents. That makes the dra w more of an accomplishment for Kerry. It occurred in part because Democrats who watched were more apt to stand by their man. Among Democratic viewers, 81 percent called Kerry the winn er, and five percent said Bush won; among Republicans who watched, 73 pe rcent said it was Bush's win, and 12 percent gave the win to Kerry. Kerry runs evenly with Bush in vote preferences, despite the Republican a dvantage in political allegiance among debate viewers, in part because t he independents who tuned in were more Democratic-leaning in their vote preference, breaking 52-43 percent, Kerry-Bush. The audience for a debate poll can depend on a variety of factors, includ ing, for instance, whether viewers find it interesting enough to stay tu ned, and what else is on television. Part of doing well in a poll of deb ate viewers means getting people who support you to tune in. That's one reason Dick Cheney won the vice presidential debate by eight p oints, 43-35 percent over John Edwards; As noted, there was also a draw between Kerry and Bush in their second de bate. Kerry's win in the first debate breathed new life into his campaig n, promoting an eight-point rise in his personal favorability rating and a closer contest between the two candidates. This survey was conducted by telephone among a random-sample panel of 566 registered voters who watched the presidential debate. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa. |