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the Gallup poll released yesterday showed a dead heat among RV 's and a slight Kerry advantage among LV's, but that does not mean it wa s a good, or even pro-Kerry poll.
Steve Soto is on the c ase: Likely Voter Sample Party ID - Poll of October 1-3 Reflected Dead Heat 49%-49% Total Sample: 772 GOP: 220 (35%)* Dem: 245 (39%)* Ind: 175 (26%)* *Repercentaged as party ID was not asked of every respondent and intervie wers called back to ascertain this information from missed respondents. Likely Voter Sample Party ID - Poll of October 9-10 Reflected Kerry Winning by 49%-48% Total Sample: 793 GOP: 302 (38%) Dem: 269 (34%) Ind: 219 (28%) So, Kerry gained a point in a poll where Republicans gained eight points on Democrats. It does not take a genius to figure out the true trendline .
Chris Bowers For a while I did not feel much pressure to promote diaries. In fact, jus t two months ago there were so few diaries that I sometimes felt guilty for promoting a diary, as it would leave the front page faster than if I had just left it the diary section.
our traffic level has picked up tremendously, and we now have around two-thirds of the level of daily traffic that Dailykos had during the first two months it switch ed to Scoop. In f act, over the last twenty-four hours alone, thirty diaries have been pos ted on MyDD. I started my blogging career as a diarist at dailykos, and for a few mont hs there was nothing that made my day more than having a diary promoted to the front page. Considering this, I always love it when I promote a d iary here at MyDD, because I know exactly how good that feels. However, I can no longer promote a very high percentage of our diaries, just beca use there are so many of them.
the diaries sec tion regularly, because you will find some great news, analysis and thou ght provoking pieces. Don't be afraid to comment on some of the diaries either.
For now, in addition to the traditional rules about no one l ine diaries, using the extended copy box for more than three paragraph d iaries, and no more than two diaries a day per person, my only request i s that you never post a diary title in all caps.
Chris Bowers Election Alert Level: BLUE The trial heats show an extremely close race because, well, the race is e xtremely close. With every new day bringing around four new national tri al heats and ten new state polls, it is difficult even for someone who s pends as much time looking at polls as I do to get a feel for the daily momentum (if such a thing even exists). However, there is a fairly simpl e and accurate way we all can monitor the state of this election: only l ook at Bush's trial heat raw scores. Here is a simple formula I just put together: * With the third-party share of the national vote not expected to excee d two percent in this election, Bush and Kerry will be competing for around 98% of the popular vote. This means that in order to win, a candidate will need at least 48% of the national popular vote. A candidate might have an outside chance of losing the popular vote 48-50 but still eek out an electoral college squeaker.
incumbent Presidents do even worse than normal incumbents. This is probably the result of 100% name ID for the President among the electorate and the depth of opinions formed about Presidents as a result of their high long-term visibility.
expect to improve one point from his final poll standing to final election results. More importantly, here is how Bush stands right now: The Three Tracking Polls Mean Median Central Mean RV's 465 470 466 LV's 478 474 477 The Seven Polls completed Within the Last Week Mean Median Central Mean RV's 466 470 468 LV's 476 474 475 The Fifteen Polls Completed Since the 1st Debate Mean Median Central Mean RV's 470 470 471 LV's 478 480 478 By every measurement, if the election were today, Kerry would be favored to win. Bush is too far below 50% for the race to be considered a true t ossup. The Election Alert System would be at Blue, and Green would not b e far away considering the numbers from just last week. So, while the ra ce is close, right now Kerry looks pretty good. Of course, a shift of ju st one point in either direction would significantly change this outlook , so any letup on our part would be disastrous.
Alan S I don't agree, but it is worth discussion--Chris Let's slow down here. Are we taking ou r proverbial guns off Bush to go after Sinclair, leaving Bush laughing a t us? I wonder if this Sinclair crap will really have much impact. Fox has been blasting rightwing propaganda just as bad and blatant at this faux-docu mentary for years. Those who are going to drink the Kool Aid on this hav e already done so. Every effort spent attacking Sinclair is an effort that is not directed a t attacking Bush. Every letter to advertisers against Sinclair is not a letter to your local paper attacking Bush. Shrinks call it being reactive: letting your behavior be dictated by the actions of others. He gets us all riled up c hasing off in different directions, instead of maintaining focus on knoc king Bush off. The Kerry campaign seems to get it: there's nothing on th e web site about Sinclair that I've seen. Maybe that's how Kerry survive d Vietman, when he had real bullets to deal with. But let's think about wher e our energies are best directed.
Sinclair thinks both you and most media outlets are all a bunch of n eo-Nazis, and that Iraqi insurgents are Democratic activists: However, the accusations coming from Terry McAuliffe and others, is it be cause they are some elements of this that may reflect poorly on John Ker ry? That it's somehow an in-kind contribution of George Bush? If you use that logic and reasoning, that means every car bomb in Iraq wo uld be an in-kind contribution to John Kerry. Weak job performance ratin gs that came out last month would have been an in- kind contribution to John Kerry. I can't change the fact that these people decided to come f orward today. The networks had this opportunity over a month ago to spea k with these people. They are acting like Holocaust deniers, pretending these men don't exist.
oil prices ha ve now reached an all-time high in terms of absolute dollars, passing $5 4 per barrel earlier today. Of course, adjusted for inflation, current p rices are only around two-thirds of the record peak in 1981.
newspaper clippings of a 1974 college streaking stunt staged by hundr eds of students -- including then-18-year-old Pete Sessions -- at Southw est Texas State University. The conservative Republican congressman -- w ho wrote a column condemning Janet Jackson's nude display during her 200 4 Super Bowl halftime performance -- apparently bared his bottom with ab out 300 others in a stunt that ended with arrests and a clash with polic e "Pete Sessions exposed himself to children and strangers. He's exposed hi mself as a hypocrite as well," said Frost spokesman Justin Kitsch.
Raw Story expose on the NY 2 9th: New York Republican state senator John "Randy" Kuhl, who is vying for a s pot in the US House of Representatives, once brandished two shotguns a nd threatened to shoot his wife at a dinner party, according to divorce records acquired by RAW STORY. Ugly stuff, and more recent than some prank in the 1970's. Local newspapers have also received anonymous copies of the report, inclu ding the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle and a newspaper in Bath, New Y ork. None have printed the allegations or the court's findings. One paper, the Corning Leader, mounted a defense for the media's suppress ion. "Copies of the confidential file that were sent to newspapers in Rocheste r and Bath have not been printed," penned Leader Managing Editor Joe Dun ning in an editorial.
contents, I've been told, don't remote ly come close to Ryan's sexcapades." brandishing two shotguns at his wife and dinner guests, solicitin g other women in his ex-wife's presence. Shit, Ryan was an alterboy comp ared to what Kuhl sounds like.
Christian Crumlish, or rather, xian (which is his internet identity), has written a book that I've been expecting. It a hi storical explanation of what's happened with politics through blogs and the internet, but goes beyond that, to a...
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