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| 11/23 |
| 2004/10/12 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:34052 Activity:very high |
10/12 http://electoral-vote.com is now fucked. What else is anyone using? Thanks. \_ Uh yeah... all the stuff below is nice and all but I just wanted to know what other sites people are using that do a similar thing. Please post URLs you're using. Thanks. --op \_ "Given that all the hate mail and threats I get come entirely from Republicans, I can make an educated guess which side is trying to silence me, but I won't say. And I won't surrender to cyberterrorists." I dunno, it works for me. \_ Fallacious conclusion. Pubs might be all huff while Dems are DOS attack. \_ Ever heard of Occam's razor? The most likely explanation is \_ Ever heard of Occam's razor? The simplest explanation is usually the correct one. \_ [motd fact checker wuz here!] \_ Apparently motd fact checker is an idiot. He removed my statment: "Apparently you haven't heard of it either. That's not what it says." \_ Tempest, meet Teacup. \_ This is precious. Why would a Republican be against a site that's currently showing that Bush would win? This is classic liberal "I'm being supressed by the Evil Vast Right Wing Conspiracy!" \_ who knows, maybe the dems are taking a hint from karl rove. there is at least one well documented case of Rove printing up nasty unmarked fliers about his OWN candidate and then dumping them in the middle of the night on voters porchs. the opposition couldn't really deny it since it would make them look like scum if they drew attention to it. brilliant. - danh \_ Because up until today, it was showing that Kerry would win for several months at least. \_ Are you nuts? It was showing that Bush would win for pretty much the entire month of September and much of AUgust. \_ Okay, you got me: Showing a Kerry win for the last month or so, and also pre-GOP-Convention bounce. \_ You're still an idiot. In this month only 8-11 show Kerry with a lead. \_ You are both mistaken: http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/graph.html \_ Yes, I should talk out of my ass less. But yeah, what I meant was that long two- month period before the GOP Convention, I guess \_ Still works fine. \_ Try http://www.slate.com/id/2107683 |
| 11/23 |
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| www.electoral-vote.com/info/graph.html Electoral College Graph Graph of electoral votes over time This graph shows the current number of electoral votes for each candidate since May 24, Remember that after some event is in the news, it takes s everal days before it is reflected in the polls. The brown horizontal li ne shows the 270 electoral vote mark needed to be elected president. The gray vertical lines show the boundaries between the months. |
| www.slate.com/id/2107683 Bush's job appro val is 50 or below in the four polls begun Oct. In the two post-debate surveys that asked whether he deserves re-election, the p ercentage saying no is 50 or above. Wrong track is above 50 and ahead of right direction by double digits in nearly all October polls. How to read the tables: The following tables track the latest polls. In t he Trial Heat, respondents were asked for whom they would vote. On Job A pproval, they were asked whether they approve or disapprove of Bush's pe rformance. On Re-Elect, they were asked whether Bush deserves to be re-e lected or not. On Right Direction, they were asked whether things are go ing in the right direction or are on the wrong track. On Favorable Ratin g, they were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impressi on of each candidate. The sixth table shows the latest state polls and tallies the electoral vo tes for each candidate if those polls hold true on Nov. Pollsters consider a lead s ignificant only if it is more than double the margin of error. If a cand idate leads by at least twice the margin, we put that state's electoral votes in his "solid" column. In the table of state polls, each state is marked dark red, light red, li ght blue, or dark blue, depending on which candidate is leading (red for Bush, blue for Kerry) and by how much. When a state poll is tied, we le ave the electoral votes with the candidate who led in that state's previ ous poll (since the average of the two polls leans that way), but we ind icate the tie by shading thestate gray on the map and in the table. |
| electoral-vote.com News electoral college strong kerry Strong Kerry (95) electoral college weak kerry Weak Kerry (91) electoral college barely kerry Barely Kerry (74) electoral college tied Exactly tied electoral college barely bush Barely Bush (56) electoral college weak bush Weak Bush (70) electoral college strong bush Strong Bush (148) Needed to win: 270 Oct. Compare the pollsters link under the map for a detailed co mparison. Other than the Rasmussen tracking polls, which average data over 7 or 14 days and thus don't move quickly, the only poll today is the 13th poll i n Oklahoma since Sept. The answer is simple: control of the US Se nate may hinge on the race between Brad Carson and Tom Coburn th ere. The polls are really about the Senate race, but once you have order ed a poll (typically for $10,000 to $15,000) depending on the number of questions, asking about the presidential race doesn't add much to the co st. Carson is currently slightly ahead, but it is very tight. Based on today's polling data, it looks like the new Senate will be 51 Re publicans and 49 Democrats (including independent Jeffords who caucuses with the Democrats). While I don't talk about the Senate rac es every day, there are almost-daily updates to the Senate page. It is n ow listed on the menu as well as at the bottom of the page. The battle f or the Senate may motivate many people to vote in states where the presi dential race is a done deal, such as Oklahoma, South Dakota, Alaska, and others. There is also a huge battle for the House, but senators are mor e fun to watch in action. The site has had technical problems repeatedly in the past several days a nd has been down several times. I didn't want to discuss this, but I don 't want anyone to think the problem was an incompetent hosting service. The site has been subjected to a full-scale, well-org anized, massive attack with the clear intention to bring it down. The at tackers have tried repeatedly to break in, but the server is a rock-soli d Linux system which has stood up to everything they threw at it and has n't crashed since I got it in May While our troops are fighting and dyi ng to bring freedom of speech to the Iraqi people, there are forces in A merica who find this concept no longer applicable to America. I don't kn ow who is behind this attack yet (although we are working it), but it is too professional to be some teenager working from a home PC. Given that all the hate mail and threats I get come entirely from Republicans, I c an make an educated guess which side is trying to silence me, but I won' t say. For $150, I upped my server capacity by adding an additional Pentium 4 with lots of bells and whistles. I burned thr ough half a dozen web hosting companies before finding them. The others all promised the moon in their ads but the promised service vanished ins tantly as soon as they got paid. Hostrocket is a big company, with tens of thousands of customers, many of them large companies, and the technic al staff is knowledgeable and very oriented towards helping the customer s They have done a wonderful job dealing with this attack. If you need a web hosting company for your business where reliability and customer s ervice are top priorities, I recommend them very highly. In the event that the site goes down again, one way to at least get the score and the daily commentary is via the RSS feed. RSS information page now and print it out for future use. I f the site goes down, you won't be able to get to it then. It is still there, but you h ave to go the actual file each day. As I said yesterday, I think the current map is actually a better pr edictor of the outcome than an average of the past 30, 60, or 90 days, n o matter how weighted. Media news: The Sinclair Broadcast Group, which reaches about 1/4 of all American homes, has ordered its stations to pre-empt regular programming just before the election to run a long attack ad on John Kerry thinly d isguised as a documentary on Vietnam. com has the story, including links to articles in the New York Times, Los Angeles Ti mes, and Washington Post. For big companies, freedom of speech is still applicable. |