Berkeley CSUA MOTD:Entry 33797
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2025/07/11 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
7/11    

2004/9/28 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:33797 Activity:very high
9/28    I can not believe it: All Kerry needs to do is beat a fucking
        chimp and he is not even going to be able to do that. What
        a fucking tool. Who the hell are these people who voted Gore
        and are now going to vote for Bush!?
        \_ That's my argument.  If Kerry can't even beat a fucking chimp,
           how is he able to run a country effectively?  I was for Gore, but
           Kerry just isn't cutting it for me.
           \_ Kerry appears to be losing because fucking stupid sheep-like
                voters such as yourself are herding along with what they're
                told is the flow.
                \_ "Think about how dumb the average American is. Now realize
                    that half of all Americans are dumber than that."
                        -- Jeff Foxworthy
                        \_ that's the median.  the median and the average
                           are only the same for a symetrical distribution,
                           which seems unlikely.
                           \_ I do not understand the concept of this
                              thing you call a "joke."  It does not
                              compute. *bzzzt*
                    \_ That would be right if he said "median American"
        \_ Kerry is winning. The polls are cooked (see Gallup)
           \_ Yeah, all of them.  Just look at http://www.electoral-vote.com to see
              how all the polls that show Bush trending up in nearly every
              battleground state are cooked.
              \_ So, Lone Starr, now you see that evil will always triumph
                 because good is dumb.
        \_ If everyone who voted for Gore voted for Kerry, then Kerry
           would also lose. In fact, the margin of victory would be even
           wider for Bush this time because of population shifts adding
           electoral votes in Bush's favor. The real questions are:
           1. Who would vote for Kerry that voted for Bush last time?
           2. Why don't Democrats vote?
           \_ I'm starting to think America really deserves four more years
              of this stupid crap.  Fucked economy, spiralling foriegn
              commitments, maybe a few more countries with the bomb, investment
              fleeing to other countries, outsourcing, the complete
              disappearance of the middle class...Maybe then we'll finally
              get a decent sweep up in '08 and we can start to fix things.
              Unfortunately the judicial branch is going to be fucked for
              a whole generation.
              \_ This was Nader's argument in favor of running in '00.
              \_ Seriously, we need more dems in office so we can have a
                 booming economy like Germany and France have.
                 \_ False analogy, sorry, you lose.
              \_ Outsorcing is simply a free market at work. What do you
                 all anti-outsorcing whinners are expecting the government to
                 do? Take money out of someone's pocket and put it into yours,
                 or perhaps make everyone pay artificially high prices for your
                 skills and the products you make? (which is how protectionsm
                 works more or less).
                 \_ Well... yeah.
2025/07/11 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
7/11    

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Cache (1806 bytes)
www.electoral-vote.com
News electoral college strong kerry Strong Kerry (109) electoral college weak kerry Weak Kerry (96) electoral college barely kerry Barely Kerry (75) electoral college tied Exactly tied (20) electoral college barely bush Barely Bush (56) electoral college weak bush Weak Bush (40) electoral college strong bush Strong Bush (142) Needed to win: 270 Aug. Enhancements News from the Votemaster We have three new polls today, including all-important Florida. Zogby's poll of Florida posted yesterday had Kerry 1% ahead. A Gallup poll taken a day later has Bush 2% ahead, so we now award Florida to Bush for the moment. Both of these polls are within the MoE so the state is still a statistical tie. The Gallup poll was based on 1002 people, so the 3% change was based on 30 additional Bush supporters in Gallup's sample compared to Zogby's. That's tiny, yet the electoral college gap narrowed today by 54 votes. We may have to wait until all the votes are counted--several times-- before we know. Missouri and Colorado are currently tied but suppose Bush squeaks through in both and the Colorado referendum fails. Then Bush picks up 20 votes in the electoral college and the score would be Kerry 280, Bush 258. In that scenario, Bush has won the three critical states: Florida, Ohio, and Missouri, and still lost the election. That's why battles are raging in some of the smaller states, like Nevada, New Mexico, and West Virginia. I don't believe that for a second, just as I am not convinced that Kerry is leading in Tennesse or that Colorado is a tie. Remember even with the impeccable methodology and no monkey business, about 5% of the time you get a sample mean that is more than two standard deviations from the true mean just due to bad luck. This site has far more about the election than just the map.