Berkeley CSUA MOTD:Entry 33685
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2024/12/24 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
12/24   

2004/9/22 [Politics/Domestic/California, Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:33685 Activity:nil
9/20    Bush has gained 10 points on Kerry in just one month in California.
        At this rate, Bush will be ahead of Kerry by two points on Oct
        22 and win California in a landslide:
        http://www.rasmussenreports.com/California%20Sept%205.htm
        \_ By your logic, Bush will have over 100% support in Ca in less
           than a year.  Fuck off.
           \_ Didn't some other motd poster claim that Gore had more than
              100% of the vote in some parts of PA?  So it is theoretically
              possible...
              \_ Just 2 or 3 precincts, but still.  It made me laugh.  --cons
        \_ According to http://www.electoral-vote.com Rasmussen leans right.
           \_ And Zogby leans left.  So?  Talk to me on November 3rd.
2024/12/24 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
12/24   

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2010/8/29-9/30 [Politics/Domestic/California, Politics/Domestic/Immigration] UID:53942 Activity:kinda low
8/29    OC turning liberal, maybe there is hope for CA afterall:
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        \_ and the state is slowly turning conservative. Meg 2010!
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2010/7/15-8/11 [Politics/Domestic/California] UID:53885 Activity:nil
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4/15    Guess who is not on this list (States with worst projected deficits):
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2009/9/2-9 [Politics/Domestic/California, Politics/Domestic/California/Arnold] UID:53319 Activity:low
9/2     California will survive its crackup:
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8/12    Thanks for destroying the world's finest public University!
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2008/11/21-28 [Politics/Domestic/Election, Politics/Domestic/President/Reagan] UID:52063 Activity:nil
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2008/11/12-26 [Politics/Domestic/Gay, Reference/Tax] UID:51924 Activity:nil
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www.rasmussenreports.com/California%20Sept%205.htm
Click Here September 5, 2004--During the week of the Republican National Convention, Senator John Kerry leads President Bush in California by eight points. The latest Rasmussen Reports survey finds Senator John F Kerry with 50% of the vote in California and President George W Bush with 42%. Just before the Convention, Kerry held a nine-point advantage. Premium Service during the final two months of the campaign includes daily tracking for Florida, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania along with frequent updates for many other states and key Senate races. State data will be provided for the public site on a regular, but less frequent, basis. Thirty-eight percent (38%) of California voters believe the country is heading in the right direction while 55% believe we have gotten off on the wrong track. Sign up for our free Weekly Update Sign Up This telephone survey of 608 Likely Voters conducted by Rasmussen Reports from August 27-Sept 3, 2004. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
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www.electoral-vote.com
News electoral college strong kerry Strong Kerry (109) electoral college weak kerry Weak Kerry (96) electoral college barely kerry Barely Kerry (75) electoral college tied Exactly tied (20) electoral college barely bush Barely Bush (56) electoral college weak bush Weak Bush (40) electoral college strong bush Strong Bush (142) Needed to win: 270 Aug. Enhancements News from the Votemaster We have three new polls today, including all-important Florida. Zogby's poll of Florida posted yesterday had Kerry 1% ahead. A Gallup poll taken a day later has Bush 2% ahead, so we now award Florida to Bush for the moment. Both of these polls are within the MoE so the state is still a statistical tie. The Gallup poll was based on 1002 people, so the 3% change was based on 30 additional Bush supporters in Gallup's sample compared to Zogby's. That's tiny, yet the electoral college gap narrowed today by 54 votes. We may have to wait until all the votes are counted--several times-- before we know. Missouri and Colorado are currently tied but suppose Bush squeaks through in both and the Colorado referendum fails. Then Bush picks up 20 votes in the electoral college and the score would be Kerry 280, Bush 258. In that scenario, Bush has won the three critical states: Florida, Ohio, and Missouri, and still lost the election. That's why battles are raging in some of the smaller states, like Nevada, New Mexico, and West Virginia. I don't believe that for a second, just as I am not convinced that Kerry is leading in Tennesse or that Colorado is a tie. Remember even with the impeccable methodology and no monkey business, about 5% of the time you get a sample mean that is more than two standard deviations from the true mean just due to bad luck. This site has far more about the election than just the map.