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| 12/24 |
| 2004/9/16 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:33554 Activity:very high |
9/15 Bush's Convention Bounce Vanishes as Race Tightens
http://online.wsj.com/public/article/0,,SB109526872487418642,00.html?mod=todays%5Ffree%5Ffeature
\_ I think this link is what you were looking for:
http://www.electoral-vote.com
\_ electoral-vote had Kerry winning 3 days ago. It is not
an authoritative source, it aggregates results which are
not necessarily comparable. -tom
not necessarily comparable. -
\_ Nothing is authoritive. Sheesh. On November 3rd it will
all be authoritive. Until then it's just fun and games
and bullshit. "My poll is authoritive and yours is crap!"
\_ On November 3rd it may or may not be authoritive,
remember the 2000 election?
\_ It was authoritive for anyone not heavily
invested in the tinfoil or hatting industries.
\_ If Kerry wins Florida or somesuch critical
state by 5,000 questionable votes, I hope
you'll be honorable enough to remember this
conversation and not post rabid freeper
links for a month after the election.
\_ Similar, but perhaps more professional.
http://www.slate.com/id/2106527
\_ The problem with both of these is that they use results
from different by-state surveys conducted by different
organizations at different times, and they treat them as
if they are coherent. They are interesting to look at,
but even more so than other poll results, must be taken
with a grain of salt. -tom |
| 12/24 |
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| online.wsj.com/public/article/0,,SB109526872487418642,00.html?mod=todays%5Ffree%5Ffeature -> users2.wsj.com/lmda/do/checkLogin?a=t&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2F0%2C%2CSB109526872487418642%2C00.html%3Fpublicf%3Dyes The Page You Requested Is Available Only to Subscribers Please log in below to access the Online Journal (remember that all log-in information is case-sensitive). |
| www.electoral-vote.com News electoral college strong kerry Strong Kerry (109) electoral college weak kerry Weak Kerry (96) electoral college barely kerry Barely Kerry (75) electoral college tied Exactly tied (20) electoral college barely bush Barely Bush (56) electoral college weak bush Weak Bush (40) electoral college strong bush Strong Bush (142) Needed to win: 270 Aug. Enhancements News from the Votemaster We have three new polls today, including all-important Florida. Zogby's poll of Florida posted yesterday had Kerry 1% ahead. A Gallup poll taken a day later has Bush 2% ahead, so we now award Florida to Bush for the moment. Both of these polls are within the MoE so the state is still a statistical tie. The Gallup poll was based on 1002 people, so the 3% change was based on 30 additional Bush supporters in Gallup's sample compared to Zogby's. That's tiny, yet the electoral college gap narrowed today by 54 votes. We may have to wait until all the votes are counted--several times-- before we know. Missouri and Colorado are currently tied but suppose Bush squeaks through in both and the Colorado referendum fails. Then Bush picks up 20 votes in the electoral college and the score would be Kerry 280, Bush 258. In that scenario, Bush has won the three critical states: Florida, Ohio, and Missouri, and still lost the election. That's why battles are raging in some of the smaller states, like Nevada, New Mexico, and West Virginia. I don't believe that for a second, just as I am not convinced that Kerry is leading in Tennesse or that Colorado is a tie. Remember even with the impeccable methodology and no monkey business, about 5% of the time you get a sample mean that is more than two standard deviations from the true mean just due to bad luck. This site has far more about the election than just the map. |
| www.slate.com/id/2106527 election scorecard The presidential race, by the numbers. Election Scorecard Where the presidential race stands today. In the Trial Heat, respondents were asked for whom they would vote. On Job Approval, they were asked whether they approve or disapprove of Bush's performance. On Re-Elect, they were asked whether Bush deserves to be reelected or not. On Right Direction, they were asked whether things are going in the right direction or are on the wrong track. On Favorable Rating, they were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of each candidate. Pollsters consider a lead significant only if it is more than double the margin of error. If a candidate leads by more than twice the margin, we put that state's electoral votes in his "solid" column. Trial Heat Trend Bush Kerry Nader Margin of Error Dates Voters Sampled Sponsor/ Pollster Bush Kerry Since 47 45 3 31 Sept. |