Berkeley CSUA MOTD:Entry 33538
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2017/11/19 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
11/19   

2004/9/15 [Politics/Domestic/President/Bush, Computer/SW/Apps] UID:33538 Activity:high
9/15    http://www.electoral-vote.com
        Has nice popups per state which shows currently numbers and the way
        each state voted in 2000, gives details on how the numbers are
        gathered, compiled, and generated.  Excel spreadsheet and xml is
        available free from the site.  Updated once per day in the morning.
        \_ woah! bush wins!  I guess we don't have to have an election now,
           since the compueter and the polls tell us who should be president.
           \_ you're a moron.
        \_ This is a great site.  It was posted on the motd a while ago and
           I've been following it for a few weeks.  Every time a state poll is
           conducted the thing jumps around.
2017/11/19 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
11/19   

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www.electoral-vote.com
News electoral college strong kerry Strong Kerry (109) electoral college weak kerry Weak Kerry (96) electoral college barely kerry Barely Kerry (75) electoral college tied Exactly tied (20) electoral college barely bush Barely Bush (56) electoral college weak bush Weak Bush (40) electoral college strong bush Strong Bush (142) Needed to win: 270 Aug. Enhancements News from the Votemaster We have three new polls today, including all-important Florida. Zogby's poll of Florida posted yesterday had Kerry 1% ahead. A Gallup poll taken a day later has Bush 2% ahead, so we now award Florida to Bush for the moment. Both of these polls are within the MoE so the state is still a statistical tie. The Gallup poll was based on 1002 people, so the 3% change was based on 30 additional Bush supporters in Gallup's sample compared to Zogby's. That's tiny, yet the electoral college gap narrowed today by 54 votes. We may have to wait until all the votes are counted--several times-- before we know. Missouri and Colorado are currently tied but suppose Bush squeaks through in both and the Colorado referendum fails. Then Bush picks up 20 votes in the electoral college and the score would be Kerry 280, Bush 258. In that scenario, Bush has won the three critical states: Florida, Ohio, and Missouri, and still lost the election. That's why battles are raging in some of the smaller states, like Nevada, New Mexico, and West Virginia. I don't believe that for a second, just as I am not convinced that Kerry is leading in Tennesse or that Colorado is a tie. Remember even with the impeccable methodology and no monkey business, about 5% of the time you get a sample mean that is more than two standard deviations from the true mean just due to bad luck. This site has far more about the election than just the map.