Berkeley CSUA MOTD:Entry 33401
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2025/07/13 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
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2004/9/7 [ERROR, uid:33401, category id '18005#4.8325' has no name! , , Politics/Domestic/President/Bush] UID:33401 Activity:nil
9/7     What does history suggest when the polls have the election
        tied on Sept 1 and again one week after the end of the
        Republican convention?
        http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm
2025/07/13 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
7/13    

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www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm
Tuesday April 13, 2004-Once again, the race for the White House is tied. In the latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll, President George W. The Presidents Job Approval is at 51 As you would expect, the President leads among men, but trails among women. Bush also lead among white voters, but trails among minority voters. Eighty-three percent 83 of Bush voters say they are certain they will vote for him. Later this week, Rasmussen Reports will release state polling data, including a look at the Presidential race in Florida and the new dynamics of the Senate race in Colorado. Tomorrow we release updated ratings for the Presidents handling of the economy and the situation in Iraq . The Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern. Just 26 of American voters believe the terrorists are winning , down from 30 last week. A reduction in pessimism may also be the best way to describe recent gains in the nations economic confidence. Forty-three percent 43 of Americans now believe the recession is over . Thats up from 37 before the report of strong job creation in March. Sign up for our free Weekly Update Real Clear Politics offers a nice commentary on how to deal with the avalanche of polling data coming your way in 2004. More than anything else, they suggest focusing on the Presidents Job Approval rating. Heres part of their analysis: As a crude measuring stick for the state of the presidential race, an over 50 job approval for the President should translate into a Bush victory. A 45 - 49 job approval will mean a close race, but I would give President Bush the advantage. Our most recent statewide poll finds Kerry leading Bush 50 to 44 in Washington . That result is almost identical to Al Gores margin of victory in that state four years ago. Rasmussen Reports data also shows Bush leading in Missouri , Kerry leading in Iowa , and a toss-up in Minnesota . Other recent Rasmussen Reports state polling shows Kerry leading Bush by 4 points in both Michigan and Ohio while the candidates are essentially tied in Pennsylvania . The national telephone survey of 1,500 Likely voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports over the past three nights. Margin of sampling error is /- 3 percentage points with a 95 level of confidence.