9/7 After the Democratic convention and the last couple months, is it too
late to recast Kerry as anything other than the Vietnam guy?
\_ Certainly not. If he picks two or three main points and gets the
talking heads to parrot his talking points, he could easily enter
October as the "We can do better" guy.
\_ IMO, Kerry can spend a little time on Vietnam (basically be morally
outraged and say it was all done in '96), but focus on for George
W. Bush: W. stands for "Wrong".
\_ Play populist. Show how GWBs policies have favored the rich and
screwed the middle class (no-one likes to consider themselves poor).
Ask "Where's Osama?" and point out half-assed security measures.
\_ Do people have a memory that extends further back than 2 months?
\_ It's easily modified. E.g., even though there were no WMDs in
Iraq, nukular weapons are the real threat. Our use of force
in Iraq caused Libya to give up its nukular program! Anyway,
the whold world thought we'd find WMDs in Iraq!
\_ Bush had more than 2 months to change perception.
\_ Is this your first presidential campaign? The campaign season
just officially began.
\_ Gallop poll, since 1980, at the start of September (polling
number eyeballed from graph) and actual result:
1980 Reagan tied, Reagan won at 50.8%
1984 Reagan ahead at 57%, Reagan won at 59%
1988 Bush ahead at 48%, Bush won at 53.9%
1992 Clinton ahead at 50%, Clinton won at 43.2%
1996 Clinton ahead at 53%, Clinton won at 49.9%
2000 Tied, Bush won by winning the tie breaker
If you bothered to do some research, you might actually learn
something. Is this your first election?
\_ No, I have followed many campaigns. That is why I know
any question asked at the start of the campaign season
asking "is it too late" is really really stupid.
\_ I see. And it's just coincidence that the candidate
leading the race in the start of September has won
every presidential since the 1980 (that I've bothered
to look)? In fact, since the 1930's (when Gallop starting
tracking elections), only in 1960 did the leading candidate
in the start of September lose an election. In 9/1960,
Kenneday was behind 46% vs 47%, and he won the election
with 50.1% of the vote. Nah, just a coincidence.
\_ No, it just shows that elections are decided by
something other than personalities. The economy
in September determines the winner in November,
except during exceptional years.
\_ Now, how does this claim jive with your previous
claim that "*any* question asked at the start of
the campaign season asking 'is it too late' is
really really stupid."? (Emphasis added.)
\_ I believe he's claiming that this is an
exceptional year. I would tend to agree.
!the above guy
\_ Note that he didn't say "in an exceptional
year". He stated it as a general principle.
Note also that he repeatedly asked "is this
your first election?". The only reason to
ask that would be to use the history of
previous elections as a guide to what will
happen this time. This is clearly contrary
to a claim that history doesn't apply because
this is an exceptional election. |
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