Berkeley CSUA MOTD:Entry 33353
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2025/05/24 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
5/24    

2004/9/4 [Politics/Domestic/President/Bush] UID:33353 Activity:nil
9/4     Frances comes. Bush will declare Florida a disaster area, pump lots
        of Federal fundings, and Florida will vote for Bush. Four more years.
        That, is my prediction.
        \_ This proves it -- Satan is on the side of Bush (he sent the
           unholy hurricane as an election aid).
        \_ Even with Florida voting Republican, the electoral college is
           still roughly split 50-50 according to
           http://www.electoral-vote.com To win this election, all things
           being equal, it would be enough for Kerry to win in one or two swing
           states like Colorado, Iowa, Arkansas, Pennsylvania and maybe Arizona
           or Missouri most of which are split roughtly 50-50 right now.
           Though, I think you are probably right about Florida. If I was
           JFK.v2, I'd ignore it from now on and concentrate on the states I
           have mentioned above.
2025/05/24 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
5/24    

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Cache (1806 bytes)
www.electoral-vote.com
News electoral college strong kerry Strong Kerry (109) electoral college weak kerry Weak Kerry (96) electoral college barely kerry Barely Kerry (75) electoral college tied Exactly tied (20) electoral college barely bush Barely Bush (56) electoral college weak bush Weak Bush (40) electoral college strong bush Strong Bush (142) Needed to win: 270 Aug. Enhancements News from the Votemaster We have three new polls today, including all-important Florida. Zogby's poll of Florida posted yesterday had Kerry 1% ahead. A Gallup poll taken a day later has Bush 2% ahead, so we now award Florida to Bush for the moment. Both of these polls are within the MoE so the state is still a statistical tie. The Gallup poll was based on 1002 people, so the 3% change was based on 30 additional Bush supporters in Gallup's sample compared to Zogby's. That's tiny, yet the electoral college gap narrowed today by 54 votes. We may have to wait until all the votes are counted--several times-- before we know. Missouri and Colorado are currently tied but suppose Bush squeaks through in both and the Colorado referendum fails. Then Bush picks up 20 votes in the electoral college and the score would be Kerry 280, Bush 258. In that scenario, Bush has won the three critical states: Florida, Ohio, and Missouri, and still lost the election. That's why battles are raging in some of the smaller states, like Nevada, New Mexico, and West Virginia. I don't believe that for a second, just as I am not convinced that Kerry is leading in Tennesse or that Colorado is a tie. Remember even with the impeccable methodology and no monkey business, about 5% of the time you get a sample mean that is more than two standard deviations from the true mean just due to bad luck. This site has far more about the election than just the map.