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Ron Haviv / VII for Newsweek The president's party in New York WEB EXCLUSIVE By Brian Braiker Newsweek Updated: 1:35 pm ET Sept. John Kerry (52 percent to 41 percent) in a three-way race, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll. The poll was taken over two nights, both before and after Bush's acceptance speech. Respondents who were queried only on Friday, after Bush's speech, gave the Republican a 16-point lead over Kerry.
The 11-point lead represents a 13-point bounce for Bush since an Aug. The president's post-convention bounce was substantial vs. the two-point increase received by Kerry after last month's Democratic National Convention and in line with the size of other post-convention bounces. Removing independent candidate Ralph Nader from the mix actually has no significant effect on the spread between the other two candidates: Without Nader, Bush draws 54 percent of the vote, Kerry 43. The poll shows that Bush and Cheney have gained ground, and now lead, on almost all key election issues: The president's approval rating is back over the halfway mark (52 percent, with 41 percent disapproving) after having slipped to 45 percent in July; his favorability ratings (55 percent favorable versus 40 percent unfavorable) are the highest they have been all year, after having fallen to 48 percent unfavorable in the poll at the end of the DNC. And with perceptions of the president climbing back from a low over last month, more registered voters say they would like to see Bush reelected than not (53 percent versus 43 percent)--the most favorable ratio he has had since July, 2003.
Tell us what you think of President Bush in the wake of the Republican National Convention and who you'll cast your ballot for. As Bush's numbers climb, those of his challenger appear to have sunk to their lowest point this year. Solid majorities of registered voters now view the president as personally likeable (67 percent), someone who "says what he believes and not just want people want to hear" (66 percent), as a strong leader (65 percent) and someone who cares about people (53 percent)--which is significant for the "compassionate conservative" who had previously been struggling to appear empathetic. Kerry's campaign, on the other hand, may have been hurt by the television ad campaign launched against him by Vietnam veterans who question his record. Just 45 percent of all voters view Kerry favorably (down from 53 percent in late July) and 46 percent view him unfavorably (up from 37 percent). Kerry's numbers have also fallen significantly over whether voters view him as a strong leader (47 percent, down from 58 percent in late July), personally likeable (59 percent versus 67 percent previously), honest and ethical (47 percent versus 58 percent) and worthy of trust in an international crisis (44 percent versus 53 percent). Nearly half (45 percent) of all voters now feel the Massachusetts Democrat is too liberal, compared to 32 percent who view the president as too conservative. The issue that received the most attention at the RNC last week was terrorism, and terrorism is the issue that is at the forefront of Republican concerns (50 percent call it the most important in determining their vote). Overall, though, just about a quarter (28 percent) of registered voters consider fighting terror the top issue in this election, whereas a similar number (21 percent) say the same about the economy, followed by health care (13 percent), Iraq (11 percent), jobs (9 percent) and education (6 percent). The Kerry camp may find small comfort in the fact that although voters who see terrorism as the top priority overwhelmingly prefer Bush (87 percent of those who see it as the top issue with vote for the president), Kerry is still favored by those who rank the economy (61 percent), health care (58 percent) and eve, by a small margin, Iraq (51 percent) as their top issue. Following the DNC, Kerry was favored by voters on nearly every issue except terror, but the president has now extended his edge to nearly 30 points on the issues of terrorism and homeland security (60 percent versus 32 percent). Voters also choose Bush when it comes to handling tax policy (52 percent to Kerry's 32 percent) and is even viewed as better than Kerry on handling the economy in general (49 percent versus 43 percent) and education (48 percent versus 42 percent). Kerry has also lost his edge on the question of jobs and foreign competition with 44 percent of voters preferring him (and 45 percent of their support). Voter reaction to the controversial Swift Boat Veterans for Truth television ads breaks down along party lines. Just four in 10 voters (39 percent) feel the ads distort the truth, 21 percent feel they are generally accurate and another four in ten (40 percent either don't know how they feel or haven't seen the ads). These numbers suggest that the ads succeeded in turning one of Kerry's strongest characteristics, his Vietnam record, into less of a plus: For the first time, as many voters say that his military service make them less likely to vote for him as say it increases their likelihood of voting for him (19 percent versus 15 percent). Although this latest NEWSWEEK poll represents a significant shift in the numbers of both candidates, a record low number of registered voters report having watched the proceedings at home. Only about four in 10 (40 percent) voters claim to have watched at least some of the convention coverage on TV this week, less than the 48 percent who said they watched at least some of the Democratic convention in July. Overall, voters are split on whether this week's GOP show made them feel more favorable (36 percent) or less favorable (27 percent) toward the Republican Party. In late July, the Democratic Party appeared 41 percent more favorable (versus 24 percent less favorable) to voters who followed their convention in Boston. As for the actual substance of the convention, Bush's speech received similar marks to that of his challenger a month prior. Both speeches were well received, with 30 percent of voters saying Bush's speech made them more likely to vote GOP, while 10 percent say it made less likely. When asked which other individual speakers made them more likely to vote Republican, voters gave Rudy Giuliani and First Lady Laura Bush somewhat better ratings than Sen. Of the first lady's speech, 25 percent said they were as a result more likely to vote for the Republican ticket (versus 7 percent who said they were less likely); of the former New York mayor's, 24 percent were more likely (versus 8 percent less). Twenty percent were more likely to vote Republican because of McCain and 22 percent thanks to Arnold Schwarzenegger Cheney's score (19 percent more likely versus 15 less) was far below Democratic vice-presidential nominee John Edwards' rating for his DNC speech (31 percent versus 7 percent), and even below Democratic Sen. Zell Miller's controversial keynote speech at the RNC (21 percent said he made them more likely to vote Republican) in which he heaped scorn and fury upon his own party. For the NEWSWEEK poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates interviewed 1,008 adults aged 18 and older Sept. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
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