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| 5/29 |
| 2004/9/3-4 [Politics/Domestic/Election, Politics/Domestic/President/Bush] UID:33338 Activity:high |
9/3 Sigh. Big bounce for Bush. http://csua.org/u/8x3 . Yes, I know. It's unreliable. It's pre-debates. It'll disappear. It still sucks. \_ Its also an outlier with the other polls, and it was done mostly *during* the convention... \_ Yes, it still sucks. Did they do the same poll during the Democratic convention? \_ How can it be an outlier when it's the only reputable poll taken during the convention? It can only be an outlier if there are other reputable polls taken during the convention which show a small lead or none. Do not easily dismiss the Ah-nold and Giulani effect. Do not easily dismiss the Ah-nold and Giulani effect, and the fact that Dubya delivered a speech that sounds very good. \_ Zogby, through 9/2: Bush 46, Kerry 44 American Research Group, through 9/1: Bush 48, Kerry 47 \_ I found the URL for you: http://csua.org/u/8x4 Hard to tell who's right, since Zogby leans a little left and IMO Time leans a little right, and one day can make a difference (especially with the Chechens). I'd wait for more polls, but Dubya definitely has his "We got a bounce!" line, unless Time comes out saying they goofed, which I doubt will happen. \_ Apparently even the Bush people are saying this poll is an outlier, although it seems most of the data was gathered before Bush's actual speech. Its actually the media which is currently doing the "Bush GODDA BOUNCE!" dance. \_ Well, Time is. I think the news media would have no problem saying "Tiny Bounce For Bush! Race still deadlocked!" \- did the idea futures mkts move of bush v kerry? \_ Tradesports has him as a 57/43 favorite now, where it was even right after the Democratic convention. It was 57/43 about six weeks ago, just before the Democratic convention, so they cancelled each other out essentially. \_ Not that big really, since he was +2% by that same poll a week ago. So it was an eight point bounce and that poll has a margin of error of +/- 4%. So the move was less than the total margin of error. Or am I confused about my statistics here? |
| 5/29 |
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| csua.org/u/8x3 -> sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/a/2004/09/03/politics1638EDT0674.DTL The Time magazine poll of 926 likely voters was taken Aug. Bush had 46 percent, Kerry had 44 percent and Nader 5 percent in a Time poll taken just before the convention. Veteran pollsters say that polls taken during convention weeks should be viewed with caution because they are conducted at a point when public opinion is focused on only one party and a bounce in the numbers could be short-lived. However, they also noted that polls taken during conventions can sometimes foreshadow a longer lasting bounce. Much of the poll was taken before President Bush's speech on Thursday night. Kerry campaign aides questioned the size of the Bush lead and pointed to other national polls taken in recent days that show the race is close. Bush campaign spokesman Brian Jones said it's not yet clear how much of an effect the GOP convention will have on the race, but said "the president's message is registering with voters." |
| csua.org/u/8x4 -> quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aVcgwBEfjbnk&refer=top_world_news Bush Leads Kerry 46% to 44% in Convention Week Poll by Zogby Sept. The telephone poll of 1,001 voters who indicated they were likely to vote this fall gave Bush 46 percent to Kerry's 44 percent. Kerry led Bush, 48 percent to 43 percent, at the end of July. The president has had a very good convention following a good week, where he also dominated the news with his own message _ leadership, strength, decisiveness,'' John Zogby, president of Utica, New York-based Zogby International, said. An American Research Group poll of likely voters taken from Aug. The poll of 800 people who said they were likely to go to the polls on Nov. Forty-eight percent of those polled by Zogby said they wanted someone new as president, while 46 percent said they would vote to re-elect Bush. |