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chart attached graphical line California voters favor Sen. John Kerry over President Bush by a 12- percentage-point margin, a lead that has remained steady since Kerry emerged as the presumptive Democratic nominee in February, according to a Field Poll released today. The survey of 633 California voters, conducted over six days immediately after the Democratic convention, shows that Kerry's popularity in the state has increased over the past two months even as the head-to-head contest with the Republican Bush remains unchanged. Among self-described likely voters, 53 percent said they would vote for Kerry if the election were held today, while 41 percent would choose Bush. When Ralph Nader's name was added, 51 percent said they would vote for Kerry, 40 percent for Bush and 2 percent chose Nader. Though a majority of Kerry voters said their preference is driven by anti- Bush sentiments, 58 percent of all respondents said they had a favorable impression of Kerry, up 10 percentage points from May Forty-two percent said they had a favorable impression of Bush, a drop of 2 percentage points from May The poll has a statistical margin of error of plus or minus 41 percentage points. "The convention seems to have had a positive influence on voters' impression of Kerry,'' said poll director Mark DiCamillo. However, he added that he did not expect any significant changes in the matchup barring an unforeseen development. "Partisan opinions are so firmly held -- held in such a consistent manner for so long -- change would require a major event,'' DiCamillo said. California, which has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since George HW Bush in 1988, remains far more pro-Kerry than the rest of the country. A nationwide poll released Thursday by Fox News showed Kerry ahead of Bush among likely voters 48 percent to 43 percent. The survey of 775 voters had a statistical margin of error of 4 percentage points. A smaller sample of registered voters in 15 "battleground'' states showed Bush and Kerry in a statistical dead heat. Polls gauging the candidate's strengths will be critical in determining strategy for the final three months of the campaign. Reflecting California's position as a state not viewed as a battleground, the group of musicians -- including Bruce Springsteen -- who announced a tour Wednesday of 34 cities to drum up support for Kerry will come closest to the state on Oct. Bush is scheduled to be in Santa Monica -- a Democratic bastion -- for a fund-raiser next Friday, according to documents circulated by the campaign. It will be Bush's first visit to the state since March, and anti-war groups are pledging to protest the visit already. "We continue to see a real opportunity in California,'' said Bush-Cheney spokeswoman Tracey Schmitt, who would not confirm details of the president's trip. Meanwhile the Kerry campaign has said the Massachusetts senator will be in California before Aug. That raises the possibility that both candidates could cross paths in the Democratic-leaning state next week. The San Francisco-based Field Poll found support for Kerry is strongest in the Bay Area, where he is ahead of Bush 63 percent to 27 percent. Bush's strongest showing comes in the Central Valley, where he is ahead of Kerry 48 percent to 40 percent. "If you remove the Bay Area from California, it would be pretty much a dead heat,'' DiCamillo said, observing that Bay Area residents sometimes live in a political bubble. "Everywhere I go, people ask me in disbelief why Kerry is not leading (by more) in the election,'' DiCamillo said. John Edwards of North Carolina, while 38 percent said Vice President Dick Cheney. Edwards is viewed as favorable by 57 percent of voters, as compared to 40 percent for Cheney. Among Democrats, Kerry leads Bush 83 percent to 11 percent. Among Republicans, Bush is ahead 81 percent to 15 percent.
Kerry Voter preference for president (among California likely voters) Poll including Ralph Nader Nader 2% Bush 40% Kerry 51% Undecided 7%. Poll without Ralph Nader Kerry 53% Bush 41% Undecided 6% Presidential preferences by subgroup Kerry-Edwards Bush-Cheney Undecided Statewide 51% 40 9 Party Democrats 83% 11 6 Republicans 15% 81 4 Nonpartisan/other 48% 29 23. Region Los Angeles County 55% 39 6 Other Southern California 44% 47 9 Central Valley 40% 48 12 San Francisco Bay Area 63% 27 10 Other Northern California* 55% 41 4 Relatively small sample. Telephone survey was conducted in English and Spanish July 30Aug. Results have a sampling error of plus or minus 41 percentage points.
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