csua.org/u/8f6 -> www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A34914-2004Aug2.html
Polls Kerry Leads Bush in Post-Convention Poll Washington Post-ABC News Poll Shows Voters Favor Kerry 50-44 By Richard Morin and Dan Balz Washington Post Staff Writers Monday, August 2, 2004;
The new poll shows Kerry now claims the support of 50 percent of all registered voters, compared with 44 percent for Bush, with independent candidate Ralph Nader at 2 percent. On the eve of the convention, Bush led Kerry 48 percent to 46 percent. Among those most likely to vote, the race is tighter: Kerry holds a 2-point advantage over Bush in the current poll. By historical standards, Kerry's post-convention bounce is modest, at best -- a fact that set off a debate between his and Bush's campaign advisers. The Bush team said Kerry's failure to gain more significant ground from his national convention puts him at a serious disadvantage for the fall, while Kerry advisers said the electorate is already so polarized and partisans so energized that there was far less chance for a big bounce this year. Bush expects a bounce of his own from the GOP convention at the end of this month, and his advisers said before the Democratic convention their goal was to bring the race back to even by the time their convention ends. Kerry advisers, tamping down expectations for a big bounce in the polls, said they hoped their convention would begin to improve Kerry's standing with the voters on issues and on character traits associated with the presidency. The Post-ABC survey suggests that Democrats made some immediate progress toward achieving those goals, although Kerry's challenge will be to lock in some of those gains before they dissipate, as usually happens. Kerry effectively introduced himself to many voters who had only a vague impression of him and reestablished himself as the candidate who better understands the problems of average Americans, the poll found. He also appeared to answer, at least for the moment, questions about his fitness to assume the presidency in a time of crises abroad and terrorist threats at home. Kerry, who emphasized his military service and began his acceptance speech by announcing he was "reporting for duty," is viewed by 52 percent all voters as better able to serve as commander-in-chief while 44 percent back Bush. And he has erased the president's double-digit advantage as the candidate best able to deal with terrorism. But the survey also suggests that the Democrats were less successful in answering questions about Kerry's specific plans for dealing with the situation in Iraq, the terrorist threat and the lackluster economy -- issues that rank at the top of voters' agendas. A bare majority of voters -- 53 percent -- say they now have a clear idea of where Kerry stands on the issues, up from 46 percent immediately before the convention. Nearly half -- 46 percent -- continue to say they are uncertain about his positions, a vulnerability that Republicans will likely try to exploit in the weeks leading up to the GOP convention. And one in five voters say they could switch support to the other candidate, unchanged from before the Democratic convention. A total of 1,200 randomly selected adults, including 940 self-described registered voters, were interviewed Friday through Sunday. The margin of sampling error for the overall results is plus or minus 3 percentage points and slightly larger for results based on likely voters. The Post-ABC News poll suggests Kerry benefited from his convention. His support among voters increased 4 percentage points while Bush's dropped by an equal amount, about half the historic average, according to data collected by political scientist James Campbell of the State University of New York at Buffalo. Other polls suggested a somewhat smaller bounce for Kerry, or no increase at all. Taken together, all of the recent surveys suggest no dramatic surge in support for the Democrat, although most found that Kerry had improved his standing with voters on key issues and traits. According to the Post-ABC survey, Kerry has regained much of the ground he had lost to Bush on a broad range of issues immediately before the convention. The Democrat reclaimed the advantage over Bush as the candidate best able to deal with the economy, transforming a 1-point deficit into an 11-point lead over Bush on this key voting issue. Kerry also runs about even with Bush as the candidate best able to deal with the situation in Iraq and has erased the president's double-digit advantage on the campaign against terrorism. At the same time, Kerry increased his advantage on education and health care, issues where he now leads the president by a dozen or more percentage points. Efforts by Democrats to counter GOP claims that Kerry would be a weak and indecisive leader also showed at least temporary and partial success. Bush still is viewed as the stronger leader, but Kerry has managed to cut the president's advantage by more than half. Currently 50 percent of all voters see Bush as the stronger leader, while 44 percent say Kerry is. The Democrat is now viewed as more honest and trustworthy than Bush, by 47 percent to 41 percent. Immediately before the convention, those numbers were essentially reversed. Kerry also has widened his advantage as the candidate who best understands the problems of average Americans. While Bush was seen on the eve of the convention as the candidate who most closely shared their values, Kerry now has a 50 to 44 percent advantage over Bush on that question. The survey also suggests that perceptions of Kerry as a dour pessimist may have eased somewhat. He is now viewed more favorably than Bush by the public. And the proportion who say he's an optimist rose from 55 percent on the eve of the convention to 65 percent immediately after. Overall, 56 percent of Kerry's supporters say they were "very enthusiastic" about him, compared to 41 percent barely a week earlier. Bush's approval rating stood at 47 percent, with 49 percent saying they disapproved of how he is handling his job. That represents a statistically insignificant deterioration in his standing on a crucial indicator.
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