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| 5/25 |
| 2004/7/27 [Politics/Domestic/Election, Politics/Domestic/Immigration] UID:32497 Activity:insanely high |
7/26 And here's why Kerry isn't polling up 15 and isn't going to win.
Clinton was right, "it's the economy, stupid",
"Consumer confidence hits two-year high"
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040727/D843769O0.html
\_ Well, the Dems have been hammering Bush on the economy for at least
the last year, cherry-picking stats to talk down the economy even as
it's been recovering. Now that the economy is in robust recovery,
they've lost that point and look a bit silly. On top of that they
said that Bush's tax plan would ruin our economy. Tax receipts in
June were the highest for the month of June since 2000, so not only
is the economy rolling, but the federal budget is doing well too.
\_ ha we are like 30 trillion in debt up to our assholes, so doomed
\_ Thanks to FDR, LBJ, and leftists. [formatd on all this]
\_ i am reasonably sure this country did not have huge
trade and budget deficits until the early 80s,
after someone ramped up spending while simultaneously
slashing government revenues. are you still pissed
about that new deal thing?
\_ Whoa. So how long have you and reality been divorced?
\_ 30 trillion? I'd love to see the URL for _that_!
\_ Here's a guy who says we are 52 Trillion in debt,
counting unfunded pension and Social Security
liability:
http://www.fulcruminquiry.com/article76.htm
The Economist says that it is only $10.5 B though.
You can come up with almost any number for a
liability 75 years from now though.
\_ 10.5 B or 10.5 T ?
\_ Learn to indent. Yes, the fed. gov't needs to cut spending.
But the point is that tax receipts are now higher than in 2000
(well, we'll see if we're in a trend). That puts us in a
great position to pay down some debt. Unless of course Kerry
gets his way and (1) gets universal health care and (2)
relaxes restrictions on the immigration of people with AIDS.
\_ Both fears are bogus. If we established universal
healthcare (which Kerry has not even proposed) we could
fund it with all the money employers are now spending on
for-profit HMOs. Listing restrictions on immigration of
AIDS patients would not change immingration restrictions in
general. We would not be flooded with diseased poor
Africans because we are not flooded with poor Africans
right now.
\_ HMO money goes from corps to HMOs to give health care
to employees. Universal HC as you describe it would
take money from corps to the government to give HC
to everyone. That guarantees fewer dollars per person
and therefore lesser health care. No thanks.
\_ No, not really. See Canada vs. US health care
spending. Single payer appears to be a more
efficient way of allocating resources. You can
get better overall health care with fewer dollars
spent. That is what I believe, anyway.
\_ Oh, I see. You've got yours so screw everybody else.
\_ So you're in favor of helping those in need at
the expense of others? Ok, how about this: would
you be willing to lower your GPA from 4.0 to 3.0
so 3 other people can raise theirs from 1.7 to 2.0
and not get kicked out of school? Didn't think
so. You got yours and screw everyone else.
\_ yes, I am for providing help to students
to help them learn better, and hence improve
their GPA.
\_ Great. What classes will you be taking
next semester? (Assuming you normally
would pull up the curve, of course.)
\_ This is bankrupting Europe and it would
bankrupt us. Do you want to provide free
health care for all of Mexico?
\_ It is not bankrupting Europe. Who told you
such nonesense. Canada is doing better than
ever and they have single payer healthcare.
\_ I wonder how many people who waxes
rhapsodic about the Canadian healthcare
system ever had to rely on it. My
grandfather was covered under the Canadian
system, and he was given the choice of
either wasting away slowly and painfully
while waiting > 1 year for back surgery or
paying his own way in the US.
\_ Oh, trolling for anti-immigrant sentiment now
eh?
\_ No. It is the immigrants that are
bankrupting Europe and they will also
bankrupt the US if we adopt the same
policies.
\_ Uhm, they're not immigrants until they've
left their country of origin, dumbass.
\_ Huh?
\_ really? so how come we are still the
most powerful country in the world
after these centuries of immigration?
\_ Because we don't provide free
universal health care and other
socialistic perks. Immigration is
great. Giving money away to
anyone who wants some is not.
\_ No. Criticizing ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION is not
anti-immigrant sentiment. When will you
knee-jerk lefties learn that?
\_ According to the Economist, immigrants are
a net win for Spain because they're supporting
the pension system which is strained because
Spainiards of the past few decades decided to
have fewer children.
\_ Net win? There are other variables than
budget numbers. This idea of needing to
bring in a bunch of people to support the
welfare apparatus is complete bullshit. If
they structured the system properly, instead
of setting up a ridiculous Ponzi scheme,
then they would have a long term solution.
\_ These incoming immigrants are having
more children of their own. Who will
support them?
\_ I'm pretty sure I've heard John Kerry say that everyone
should be covered by the same insurance that members of
congress have.
\_ how does universal health care in europe and other countries
work from the doctor's point of view. do they have to be
part of the system? can they set their own rates?
\_ They do not have to be and many are not. You pay
cash. Doctor's salaries are low overall and there is
a shortage of doctors. Hospitals import immigrant
doctors from, say, Russia and pay them low wages.
They accept it because otherwise they get sent back.
\_ Well, there really are two economise in America today. The rich
are doing very well, fueld by tax cuts, but middle income and
lower middle class sorts are seeing lower real wages and actual
overall tax increases, since the states have raised taxes so much.
So I am not so sure that the Republican line is going to play
too well with the Wal-Mart voter. Also, the leading indicators
are looking pretty bad according to these guys:
http://www.businesscycle.com
\_ Today the party announced that the chocorat is being increased to
25 grams.
\_ That a good economy benefits the incumbent is an accepted fact,
but I think Bush has bigger problems. In fact, I see the
population throwing out Bush as it stands up on its feet after 9/11.
\_ I see the prolitariat throwing off the shackles of
capitalism after they realize the evils of tax cuts. |
| 5/25 |
|
| apnews.myway.com/article/20040727/D843769O0.html Full Image NEW YORK (AP) - Consumer confidence rose for the fourth straight month in July thanks to steady improvements in the job market, the Conference Board reported Tuesday, putting the indicator at a two-year high. The New York-based research group reported that its index for consumer confidence rose to 1061 in July, up from 1028 in June and well ahead of the figure of 1020 that investors had been expecting. It was the highest level for the indicator since June 2002. Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center, said the gains were fueled by a better outlook for jobs, "and unless the job market sours, consumer confidence should continue to post solid numbers." A measure of consumer expectations for future economic conditions rose sharply in June, while another one gauging their sense of current conditions edged higher. The group's "expectations index" jumped to 1058 from 1008 last month, while the "present situation" index was up to 1065 from 1059 (AP) The index of leading economic indicators declined slightly in June, according to the Conference... Full Image "Everything you see here is corroborating what we've seen in other indicators - that the labor market is improving," said Josh Feinman, chief economist at Deutsche Asset Management. While the turnaround in employment over the last several months has been gradual, Feinman said he expected the improvements to hold. "I think it's pretty solid," Feinman said of the employment gains. But he added that "it hasn't been super fast - it's like an oil tanker changing directions." The better-than-expected reading from the Conference Board helped lift stocks. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 58 points to 10,020 in morning trading, rising above the 10,000 mark for the first time since Friday. The broader Standard & Poor's 500 index rose nearly 3 points to 1,087. The survey found that consumers' expectations for the next six months were somewhat more optimistic than last month. Respondents who said they expected business conditions to worsen declined to 70 percent from 91 percent, while those expecting better conditions was relatively unchanged at 232 percent versus 235 As for current conditions, the survey also painted a picture that was favorable overall, but with a few dark spots. About the same number of people as last month said they thought business conditions were "good" - 256 percent versus 258 percent. But those saying conditions were "bad" edged up to 191 percent from 174 percent. However, respondents saying that jobs seemed to be plentiful rose to 198 percent from 183 percent, and the number saying jobs were hard to get was essentially unchanged, at 260 percent versus 262 percent. The Conference Board's indexes were derived from responses received through July 20 to a survey mailed to 5,000 households in a consumer research panel. The figures released Tuesday include responses from at least 2,500 households. The figures for June were revised after all the surveys were tabulated. |
| www.fulcruminquiry.com/article76.htm Library THE COMING DISASTER IN GOVERNMENT PENSIONS June, 2004 Population aging in developed countries is an enormous and growing problem. The threat is greatest is Europe and Japan, but the United States is hardly safe. According to a study by Laurence Kotlikoff of Boston University, the present value of the gap between the US Social Security's promised outlays and projected revenues is $51 trillion. Simply stated, if we were to immediately set aside and invest everything in the entire United States to pay for existing Social Security obligations, we would still have an over 20% shortfall. Our elected officials are unwilling to address or even realistically talk about this looming crisis. If our elected officials were held to the most basic accounting standards that exist in private industry, most would be in jail for publishing false and misleading information. Instead of addressing the problem, the US is running incredible budget deficits, and hiding the problem with accounting gimmicks. Click here for our prior article on how much larger the US budget deficit would be if the Social Security fund were kept separate from other government activities. The ignored problem is getting worse, and will be thrust upon our children and grandchildren. More realistically, since the looming obligation is clearly too large to actually be paid, the problem will be thrust on those under 50-year olds foolish enough to rely on Social Security to provide retirement funding. Since the creation of Social Security, the large increase in support for the elderly was financed by increasing taxes, but the impact of the increased cost was masked by spreading the higher cost over a then-growing labor force. At the same time, a general long-term decrease in defense spending allowed savings in one area to be allocated to the elderly. With overall defense spending at historically lower levels and the increased amounts now being spent on the War on Terrorism, shifting of resources is no longer possible. The US is not alone in this problem, as most of the developed nations face the burden of supporting an older population. A population can age because of either increased longevity, or from reduced birth rates. Russia is aging mainly from dramatically reduced birth rates. In Europe, women of child-bearing age average only around 15 children, while it takes around 21 children to maintain a stable population without immigration. According to United Nations' estimates, the median age in the European Union will rise from 38 to 49 by 2050. Estimates from other forecasters has the average age increasing even more, to age 52 in Europe and 55 in Japan. Thankfully, increased aging will affect the US considerably less. The reason for the dramatic difference is that US birth rates are near replacement levels, and (ii) the US has always been good at accepting immigrants (who are generally younger) and assimilating them into its population. What Needs to be Done Here is the hard medicine that needs to be swallowed if the US is to deal with this problem: 1 Because government entitlements comprise two-thirds of all federal spending, there is no meaningful long-term scenario for balancing the budget without reducing support to the elderly. The sooner we act on this, the less painful the ultimate medicine will be. As a starting point, the Social Security normal retirement age has already been extended to 67, starting in 2008. The normal retirement age should be indexed to life expectancy, so that the age for normal benefits will continue to increase. About two dozen nations have implemented some form of "funded" privatized pension systems, including Australia, Hong Kong, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. The transition is difficult because of the cost of allowing younger workers to divert payroll taxes into private accounts while simultaneously paying benefits to existing retirees. However, the long-term savings could be increased by allowing those workers with large enough private balances to forego past public accumulated benefits in exchange for avoiding future taxes that would otherwise be paid. These people should either get payroll tax relief, or receive increased benefits when they do retire. These create substantial fiscal exposure when the medical advances become an entitlement for everyone. Whether we like it our not, the economic reality will force us to have a painful discussion about death, and who pays for avoiding it. However, decreasing benefits to the elderly is considered political suicide, so changes will not likely occur until the crisis is obvious to all. What will likely happen instead is that the federal government will gradually increase taxes to cover what the Congressional Budget Office estimates (without benefit cuts) will be a doubling of government spending as a percentage of GDP. Some of the additional taxes will come from additional income and payroll taxes, but this author expects that energy taxes will also increase disproportionately. Fulcrum Financial Inquiry is a financial and economic consulting firm. We help clients with financial forecasts, dispute resolution, business appraisals, and investment advice. |
| www.businesscycle.com ECRI monitors over 100 proprietary cyclical indexes for major economies covering more than 85% of world GDP. We regularly interpret these indexes to form a sophisticated cyclical forecast that is much more accurate than most people believe possible. Founded by Geoffrey Moore, whom the Wall Street Journal called "the father of leading indicators," ECRI enjoys close interaction with business, government and academic communities. Latest Research Releases * ECRI Weekly Update 23 Jul 04 Promptly highlights subtle shifts in our outlook based on intra-month updates of our leading indexes. This report is the only place we report our Weekly Future Inflation Gauge, along with the Weekly Leading Index. This week the US Long Leading and Leading Construction Indexes were also updated. More Info * US Cyclical Outlook 21 Jul 04 Updates our cyclical outlook for US economic growth, employment and inflation, as well as the cyclical outlook for key sectors of the economy including services, manufacturing, construction and foreign trade. This issue also includes a special report on the relationship between growth and inflation, and various inflation measures. More Info * International Cyclical Outlook 25 Jun 04 Updates our worldwide cyclical outlook for 18 economies in Europe, Asia and North America. This issue also includes a special focus section on the relationship between inflation pressures and international stock prices. The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) is updated every Friday and leads turning points in the economy by about 8 months. It is more promptly available and more accurate than any other widely available leading index. International Cycle Dates ECRI determines the reference cycle chronologies for 20 economies employing the same strict methodology used to establish the official business cycle dates for the United States. In addition, growth rate cycle chronologies are also presented. |