Berkeley CSUA MOTD:Entry 32469
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2025/05/28 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
5/28    

2004/7/24 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:32469 Activity:nil
7/24    Bad news.  Bush is ahead on electoral votes.  http://csua.org/u/8b9
        We need to do more than just mouth off on motd.  The way I see it,
        it will take either Iraq blowing up big time or the economy
        \- between "iraq fatigue" and the "soverignty xfer" "iraq blowing
           up big time" wont do it unless there were a lot of american
           deaths [like beiruit] and i dont see that happening. bushco
           has limited their downside and takes little flack from the daily
           trucker beheadings, or any kind of civil rights disasters for
           iraqis ... but they can still get credit for anything they
           can spin into WMD, like a piece of oraange with mold growing
           on it. --psb
        seriously tanking to unseat Bush.  Not much we can do with Iraq,
        but we can certainly help the economy to tank.  Guys, stop spending
        money as much as you can.  Stop going out to dinner, stop buying
        any kind of discretionary purchase, and take your money out of the
        stock market and the banks for the next few months.  I am sure
        you can come up with more ideas.  And if you're in the position to
        stop working, quit!  If you're in a position to hire, don't!  Drive up
        the unemployment rate.  We need to do everything we can here, people!
        \_ Dem convention should give Kerry a boost.
           \_ Proabably just a couple of points of pop.  Then the Republicans
              have their convention pop, and we're back to where we are now.
        \_ Really silly troll.
2025/05/28 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
5/28    

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Cache (5376 bytes)
csua.org/u/8b9 -> www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2004/07/24/politics1251EDT0496.DTL
Tall hurdles remain in his path, including Electoral College math that favors Bush. I think it's going to be a close race," said Democratic strategist Tad Devine, who helped plot Al Gore's state-by-state strategy in 2000 and plays the same role for Kerry. I think we're going into this convention in great shape," he said. With three months remaining in a volatile campaign, Kerry has 14 states and the District of Columbia in his column for 193 electoral votes. Bush has 25 states for 217 votes, according to an Associated Press analysis of state polls as well as interviews with strategists across the country. Both candidates are short of the magic 270 electoral votes. The margin of victory will come from: * TOSSUPS -- Bush and Kerry are running even in 11 states with a combined 128 electoral votes. Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Michigan and West Virginia are the toughest battlegrounds. Two other tossups, Pennsylvania and Oregon, could soon move to Kerry's column. Some will bounce between "lean" to "tossup" throughout the campaign. Four years ago, Bush won 30 states and their 271 electoral votes -- one more than needed. Gore, who won the popular vote, claimed 20 states plus the District of Columbia for 267 electoral votes. Since then, reapportionment added electoral votes to states with population gains and took them from states losing people. The result: Bush's states are now worth 278 electoral votes and Gore's are worth just 260. Even if Kerry consolidates Gore's states, no easy task, the Democrat must take 10 electoral votes from Bush's column to close the electoral vote gap. Kerry's best prospects may be in the five tossup states won by Bush in 2000: Ohio, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire and West Virginia. Winning either Ohio's 20 electoral votes or Florida's 27 would do the trick. Bush easily won Ohio in 2000, but its lagging economy puts the state in play. Kerry must still reduce Bush's advantages among conservative, rural voters. Florida should favor Bush a bit more than in 2000, partly because of its relatively strong economy, but the war in Iraq has helped keep the race close. Nevada and West Virginia have a combined 10 electoral votes, enough to close the gap. New Hampshire, which neighbors Kerry's home state of Massachusetts, has four. West Virginia voted Democratic for decades until Bush made values an issue in 2000; In Nevada, an influx of Hispanics and the administration's push to use Yucca Mountain as a nuclear waste site make the state tougher for Bush than in 2000. Six of the 11 tossup states were won by Gore: Pennsylvania, Oregon, Michigan, Iowa, New Mexico and Wisconsin. But the margin of victory was just a few thousand votes in Iowa, New Mexico and Wisconsin -- meaning Kerry has his work cut out to keep them. Of the three, Bush likes his chances best in Wisconsin, where he is targeting rural voters in a bid to widen the electoral gap by 10 votes. Flush with money and leading a united party, Kerry increased his odds by expanding the playing field into a handful of GOP states that Bush easily won in 2000, including Arkansas, Louisiana, Arizona, Virginia and Colorado. After testing the waters, Kerry pulled his ads from Arkansas and Louisiana, and downgraded his focus on Virginia and Arizona. Hispanic voters make Colorado a prime target, but Democrats acknowledge it's a tough state to win. "The race is still fundamentally tied, and the Electoral College map reflects that," said Bush strategist Matthew Dowd. "But there is beginning to be a slight tilt toward us with Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri and Arizona no longer being seriously contested." Kerry added another Republican-leaning state to his target list when he chose Sen. Aides are divided over whether North Carolina will remain a battleground through November, but its 15 electoral votes are too tempting to ignore. Missouri, a traditional battleground, recently moved to the Bush-leaning category and is being written off by some Democrats. The Kerry campaign reduced its ad campaign in the state after polls showed him consistently 4 to 6 percentage points behind Bush, with little room for improvement. Republican advantages in rural Missouri and the fast-growing exurbs make the state tough for Democrats, but Kerry will likely keep it on the table through November in case the political winds shift. Besides, abandoning a traditional battleground would be embarrassing. The four-term Massachusetts senator has begun to gather strength in traditionally Democratic states such as Maine, Minnesota and Washington. All were tossups in the spring, but now lean toward Kerry. A good convention could push Pennsylvania and Oregon into the lean-Kerry category. Recent polls give Kerry an edge in both states, but strategists for Kerry and Bush say the races are still tossup. "There is an angry feeling toward the incumbent because of Iraq," said David Sweet, who managed Pennsylvania Gov. "I think Kerry will win in the end, but that's partly based on an assumption of things to come. Of the states won by Gore, Pennsylvania is by far Bush's top target. The president has spent millions of dollars in the state on commercials and has visited it more than any other contested state -- 30 trips since his inauguration. For Kerry, losing Pennsylvania would create a virtually insurmountable electoral vote gap.