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Growing public optimism about the nations economy has helped lift support for the President. Kerry is the choice of 45% of registered voters, Bush the choice of 44%. This is a sharp turnaround for the Bush campaign in the span of just one month; in May, Kerry had opened up a wide 8-point lead over Bush.
Both have failed so far to convince a majority of voters that they share their priorities, could deal well with a crisis or with the economy -- and both candidates evoke more negative than positive opinions from the voting public. ECONOMIC GAINS Growing belief that the economy is improving appears to be helping the President. As he did last month, Bush receives support from most voters who think the economy is getting better but today there are more such voters.
Kerry has a similarly lopsided lead among those who say the economy is getting worse, but that is now a shrinking portion of the electorate. Last month 30% of voters said the economy was worsening, while today 21% do. The President is also helped by the return of very strong support from his Republican base. Today 90% of Republican voters say they plan to back Bush in November a figure more in line with the levels of support the President was used to seeing throughout his tenure in the Oval Office. Last month, in the wake of the Iraqi prison scandals, Bush had slipped a bit among GOPers and 84% were behind him helping Kerry build what was a large lead. Kerry does continue to hold a lead among Independents, 44% to 37% for Bush though the President has cut into that margin: last month Kerry was up 16 points. And the election continues to look like it will come down to a relatively small number of swing voters, because most say their minds are already made up. Kerrys image has suffered slightly in the past month: he is now viewed slightly more unfavorably than favorably by voters. Like last month, however, he still elicits no opinion from many a reminder that Election Day is still far off and many voters have yet to see or hear much about the challenger. This is not unusual: in 1992 Bill Clinton was also unknown to more than one-third of the electorate at this point. George W Bush who not surprisingly is far better known also gets more negative than positive ratings.
Kerry, meanwhile, inspires the strong support of less than one-third of his voters, while 37% are with the Democrat mainly because they dislike George W Bush. Over the weekend, the Green Party decided not to give Ralph Nader its nomination this year, making it more difficult for Nader to appear on all state ballots. If he were added to the ballot everywhere, he would hurt Kerry marginally: Bush would have 43% of the vote to Kerrys 42%, with Nader garnering 5%. The war in Iraq and the economy remain the top issues on the minds of voters.
But this is not necessarily a positive for Bush: while many voters value resolute decision-making, some see more value in flexibility. One-third of those who think Bush does stick to his positions think this is a bad characteristic in him. Meanwhile, Kerry has been charged with flip-flopping on the issues, and that charge has stuck: in stark contrast to views of Bush, only 39% of voters think Kerry takes positions and sticks to them; Those who think he does stick to positions overwhelmingly applaud that characteristic; Kerry is seen as being much more likely to listen to different points of view: 71% say he does. A smaller majority - 54% - see the President as someone who listens to various points of view. Kerry is seen as more likely to be able to admit mistakes though neither candidate is seen by most as able to do that. Half of voters think of Bush as someone who cannot admit a mistake.
Bush continues to have an advantage over Kerry on saying what he believes: 58% of voters think Bush says what he believes, compared to just 34% who say the same about Kerry. Yet as the campaigns struggle to define themselves and their opponents, neither candidate is seen by voters as sharing their priorities. Only 41% of voters think Bush shares their priorities, and just 42% think Kerry shares their priorities for the country. Nor has either candidate yet given the public confidence that they could deal well with a crisis. For Bush, the unease he elicits on this measure is a reversal from earlier this year, when dealing with crises was one of his strongest suits. These numbers are virtually the same as they were in April, though down significantly since March. Just 33% have confidence in Kerrys handling of an international crisis, while 52% are uneasy about his approach, little changed since two months ago. And neither candidate has made much headway in the past month in convincing voters that they would make the right decisions about the economy. On both evaluations handling a crisis and handling the economy, more voters have an opinion about the incumbent than about the challenger, typical at this time in a campaign. Both candidates are seen by a majority as having the skills needed to negotiate with other world leaders. RATINGS OF THE PRESIDENT President Bushs overall job approval remains low. This rating is virtually the same as it was one month ago. Moreover, most Americans continue to disapprove of Bushs handling of the situation in Iraq. Only 36% approve of his handling of it, and 58% disapprove. Bush receives similar marks on his handling of foreign policy. Only 39% approve of the Presidents handling of foreign policy while 52% of Americans disapprove. Bushs rating on the economy has risen 4 points since last month. Just 40% approve of the Presidents handling of the economy, and more than half disapprove. Handling of terrorism still remains a positive for the President. Over half - 52% - now approve of Bushs handling of the campaign against terrorism.
Now, half of voters say Bushs presidency has divided Americans, while 32% say it has brought Americans together. The feeling that Bush has divided Americans has increased since February. THE ECONOMY It appears that Americans more positive views of the economy are helping George W Bush remain competitive in this race. The number who thinks the condition of the economy is good is the highest since December 2003.
And more Americans than last month also think things in the country are headed in the right direction, though that group is still a minority. Despite more positive perceptions of the nations economy, a majority of Americans still say things in this country have seriously gotten off on the wrong track. Many voters continue to think the policies of the Bush Administration have decreased the number of jobs in the US 45% say Administration polices of decreased jobs, 24% say their policies have increased the number of jobs, and another quarter say the policies of the current administration have had no effect on jobs.
This poll was conducted among a nationwide random sample of 1053 adults, interviewed by telephone June 23-27, 2004. The error due to sampling could be plus or minus three percentage points for results based on the entire sample.
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