abcnews.go.com/sections/us/Polls/iraq_election_040621.html
com June 21, 2004-- Amid rising disenchantment with the war in Iraq, President Bush has lost significant ground on the issue on which he's staked his presidency: fighting terrorism.
Click Here For the first time in ABC News/Washington Post polls, more than half of Americans, 52 percent, say the Iraq war was not worth fighting. Seven in 10 call US casualties there "unacceptable," a new high. And there's been a steady slide in belief that the war has enhanced long-term US security; Bush, moreover, has weakened in his once-strongest area. Approval of his handling of the US campaign against terrorism has fallen to 50 percent, its lowest yet -- down eight points in the last month and 29 points below its immediate postwar peak. In a hazardous turn of fortune for Bush, Democrat John Kerry now runs evenly with him in trust to handle terrorism; Bush had led by 13 points on this issue a month ago, and by 21 points the month before.
While Kerry's pressing hard on an issue Bush once owned, the president has not entirely relinquished his advantage on terrorism. On a personal level, the public by a 14-point margin picks him over Kerry to keep the nation safer and more secure. And the Massachusetts senator may be vulnerable on specifics; only four in 10 say he has a "clear plan" on terrorism, while Bush does better. But Kerry is scoring against Bush elsewhere as well, running ahead in trust to handle five of nine issues tested in this poll, from taxes to education to health care; And personally, while Americans broadly see Bush as more consistent, they see Kerry as more honest and trustworthy, by a 13-point margin, and more in touch with their problems, by 20 points. Evaluating Bush's overall job performance, 47 percent of Americans now approve while 51 percent disapprove, inching over half for the first time in ABC/Post polls. In head-to-head matchups among registered voters, Kerry has a slight four-point lead over Bush when independent candidate Ralph Nader is included, and a larger eight-point lead with Nader out of the contest. With life-and-death issues such as Iraq and terrorism as a backdrop, and the economy a continued concern, interest in the presidential contest is unusually high. More than three-quarters of Americans are following it closely, a third "very closely." By contrast, at this time in 2000, fewer than half (49 percent) were closely following the contest between Bush and Al Gore, only 13 percent very closely. Iraq Impact While time ultimately will tell, at this point it's hard to see Iraq as anything but a net negative politically for the Bush administration. In addition to increasingly negative reaction to the level of casualties, and essentially split decisions on whether the war was worth fighting or improved US security, other assessments have worsened as well. Seventy-six percent now say the war has damaged the United States' image in the rest of the world; Sixty-three percent say it's caused long-term harm to US relations with countries that opposed the war, up 12 points. And just four in 10 say it's improved long-term stability in the Middle East, down eight points.
Iraq Handover Given such views, the public seems eager to put Iraq back into Iraqis' hands. An overwhelming 82 percent approve of the transfer of power to an interim government on June 30 -- but many see it as an insufficient exercise. More than half think the United States will continue to hold the real power in Iraq, even though three-quarters would prefer to see real power shift to the Iraqis. Indeed, the public splits evenly on who should have final say on the presence of US forces in Iraq -- the United States or the new Iraqi government. And majorities say the Iraqis should have final say on a variety of other fronts -- running Iraq's oil industry, managing its economy, administering its non-US foreign aid and determining what's ultimately done with Saddam Hussein.
Others results show mixed perceptions of progress for the Bush administration: With a new interim government now in place and the formal handover imminent, half of Americans say the United States has made "significant progress" toward establishing a democratic government in Iraq. While hardly rousing, that's up by 12 points from last month. The country divides similarly, 51 percent to 48 percent, on US progress toward restoring civil order. Iraq and Al Qaeda Most Americans continue to suspect that Iraq, under Saddam, did provide support to the al Qaeda terrorist network -- a position under debate since the 9/11 commission last week reported that there was evidence of contacts, but not of an operational relationship, between the two. It should be noted, though, that the majority's suspicion of an Iraq-al Qaeda link is just that -- a suspicion, not an assertion or assumption of fact. In this poll, 62 percent think Iraq provided direct support to al Qaeda, nearly what it was (68 percent) in January 2003, before the war. But just 23 percent say there's "solid evidence" of this support; As on other "50/50 nation" issues, the public divides about evenly on whether the Bush administration intentionally misled the American public about Iraq-al Qaeda links (48 percent say so) or told the public simply what it believed to be true (50 percent). Terrorism The murder Friday of Paul Johnson, an American working in Saudi Arabia, can't have helped public views of the terrorism situation; indeed, Bush's approval rating on terrorism was better in interviews Thursday night, before the slaying, than subsequently. At the same time, Bush's trouble on this central issue has been brewing; he had 70 percent approval on terrorism in mid-December, 64 percent in February and 58 percent in May, en route to his 50 percent now. In this poll, by contrast, it's no better than his middling ratings in several areas. And he does worse in a variety of others -- including health care (57 percent disapprove), the deficit (56 percent disapprove, albeit better than the 65 percent disapproval in March), international affairs and Iraq.
History Bush's position is an uncomfortable one in historical terms. In all but one case since 1948, incumbent presidents whose approval ratings were below 50 percent in June or July of an election year either lost (Bush's father, Jimmy Carter, Gerald Ford) or didn't run (Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman in 1952). Still, at 47 percent Bush's approval rating is higher than others' in the group -- closest to Ford, who lost narrowly. Bush's father's approval rating in June 1992, by contrast, was 12 points lower. Kerry As noted above, Kerry leads Bush in trust to handle a range of specific issues; moreover, Kerry's standing on some of these have improved. Kerry leads Bush by 12 points in trust to handle prescription drug benefits, up from three points in April. But the change on education, among others, is important as well; neutralizing the Democrats on this issue was crucial to Bush's 2000 campaign.
People who say Iraq is their most important issue pick Kerry over Bush in trust to handle it by nearly a 2-1 margin, 60 percent to 32 percent. Those who say it's terrorism pick Bush to handle that issue by a similar margin, 67 percent to 31 percent.
Top Issues Bush Kerry Terrorism 67 percent 31 percent Iraq 32 percent 60 percent Economy 38 percent 59 percent Economy The economy is one area in which the headwinds against Bush may be easing. In March, Bush's disapproval for handling it was higher, 59 percent, and Kerry (riding his primary bounce) had a bigger lead in trust to handle it. While just 45 percent now say the economy's in good shape, it was worse, 39 percent, in March, and worse still, 30 percent, last fall. At the same time, using Ronald Reagan's famous formulation, 45 percent of Americans say most people are worse off than when Bush took office, while just 17 percent say most are better off. This was a bit more negative last fall, but it's still not at all good. To the extent that Bush may try to claim the Reagan mantle, Kerry might well respond with the better-off question that same president enshrined in the political lexicon. Plans Fifty-five percent say Bush does have a clear plan for dealing with ...
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