www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,122378,00.html
Just as both candidates are viewed as equally likely to inspire confidence in the presidency, there is little change in the tight presidential election, according to a Fox News poll released Thursday.
The national registered voter poll finds the Republican incumbent would receive the support of 43 percent to Kerry's 45 percent, if the presidential election were held today.
search) conducted the national registered voter poll for Fox News on June 8-9. President Bush's overall approval rating held steady in the new poll, with 48 percent approving and 45 percent disapproving of the job he's doing as president. While there is little difference between how men and women rate the president's job performance, Republicans are about four times as likely to approve as Democrats, and whites are more than twice as likely as blacks are to approve. The poll finds optimism about the nation's economy and continued majority support for military action in Iraq. On the economy, today 53 percent believe it is recovering, up from 45 percent in late March. A 55 percent majority feels optimistic about the country's economy right now and 38 percent pessimistic, a sentiment that is essentially unchanged for over a year. "A belief in a strong national economy is crucial to the reelection chances of an incumbent president, and this year is no exception," notes Opinion Dynamics Corporation Senior Account Executive Lawrence Shiman. "The increase in the percentage of the public saying the economy is improving is a positive development for the president." There are clear differences between groups on the economic outlook. Republicans are far more optimistic about the economy -- 78 percent to 40 percent of Democrats. In addition, men are slightly more optimistic than women (60 percent and 53 percent respectively). On Iraq, 60 percent support the US military having taken action to disarm Iraq and remove Saddam and 34 percent oppose. However, only 39 percent agree that the Iraq war will ultimately make the United States safer, while 46 percent disagree. Similar to views on the economy, support for the war in Iraq is divided along party lines. Fully 89 percent of Republicans support the action compared to 40 percent of Democrats and 51 percent of independents. By a large margin, the economy and Iraq are the two most important issues to voters right now, far overshadowing issues such as education and health care. Overall, the president is seen by more voters as the best candidate to handle defense and international issues, while Kerry gets the nod on most domestic issues. Voters think Bush would do a better job than Kerry on handling the issue of terrorism (by 15 percentage points), a "national crisis" (+14 points), foreign policy (+5 points) and the situation in Iraq (+4 points). Kerry is chosen over Bush as the candidate who would do a better job handling the issues of health care (by 14 percentage points), social security (+11 points), gas prices (+7 points), education (+4 points) and the economy (+3 points). The candidates receive the same amount of support on handling the issues of taxes. When looking at candidate quality measures, Bush has an advantage over Kerry on which candidate has the personality and leadership qualities a president should have (46 percent to 35 percent), and also a lead, though smaller, on which one has a more optimistic outlook on the future of the country (42 percent to 40 percent). Kerry and Bush are rated equally on which candidate would "inspire more confidence in the presidency." Voters have a more positive than negative view of both Bush and Kerry. A 52-percent majority has a favorable opinion of Bush and 41 percent unfavorable. Voters have a more divided opinion of the Democratic candidate, but many are still unable to rate him. Kerry has a 44 percent favorable and 37 percent unfavorable rating, with 19 percent unsure. "Despite the fact that the campaigns have run negative advertising in many key states, the percentage of the public with an unfavorable view of each candidate is not increasing and has even decreased in the case of Kerry. This may mean recent negative advertising has had little effect," comments Shiman. Almost twice as many voters hold a negative view of Nader as a positive view (23 percent favorable, 43 percent unfavorable, 34 percent unsure). With a 68 percent favorable rating, first lady Laura Bush has extremely high popularity.
search) favorably (25 percent) than unfavorably (18 percent), more than half (57 percent) either have never heard of the Democratic contender's spouse or have yet to form an opinion of her. Gas Prices Makes Families Change Plans The continuing rise in gasoline prices is increasingly causing changes for American drivers. Today 42 percent report changing driving habits or travel plans because of high gas prices, up from 32 percent four months ago (February). At 47 percent, those living on the West coast are the most likely to say they have made changes because of the high prices. While OPEC and domestic oil producers shoulder most of the public's blame for rising gas prices, more than one in five think the Bush administration is responsible. When asked directly if the president has control over gas prices opinion is split. Nearly half (46 percent) think the president can control gas prices (20 percent think he has "a lot" of control and 26 percent "a little"), but 48 percent think the president does not have control over gas prices.
Many others (29 percent) think he'll be remembered for his glass-half-full optimistic outlook for the country. Fewer than one in ten think Reagan's legacy will be focused on his domestic policies. Overall, almost two-thirds of voters today say they supported Reagan's policies and less than 20 percent say they opposed them. In what may be attributable to a rally effect, today even four in 10 Democrats and 69 percent of independents say they supported Reagan's policies. Polling was conducted by telephone June 8-9, 2004 in the evenings. The sample is 900 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Results are of registered voters, unless otherwise noted. LV = likely voters "Battlegrounds" include the following states: Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Wisconsin. The remaining non-battleground states are divided into "Red States" (voted for Bush in the 2000 election) and "Blue States" (gave their electoral votes to Gore). Please tell me whether you have a generally favorable or unfavorable opinion of each. Approve Disapprove (DK) 8-9 Jun 04 48% 45 7 18-19 May 04 48% 43 9 4-5 May 04 49% 43 8 21-22 Apr 04 50% 44 6 6-7 Apr 04 49% 44 7 10. In the presidential election, let's say the Republican ticket is President George W Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney versus a Democratic ticket of Senator John Kerry for president and Missouri Representative Dick Gephardt for vice president. If the election were held today, which ticket would you support? SCALE: 1 Republican ticket, Bush-Cheney 2 Democratic ticket, Kerry-Gephardt 3 (Neither) 4 (Not sure) Bush-Cheney Kerry-Gephardt (Neither) (NS) 8-9 Jun 04 44% 45 3 8 Battlegrounds 41% 47 5 7 18-19 May 04 43% 42 3 12 11. In the presidential election, let's say the Republican ticket is President George W Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney versus a Democratic ticket of Senator John Kerry for president and former Vermont Governor Howard Dean for vice president. If the election were held today, which ticket would you support? SCALE: 1 Republican ticket, Bush-Cheney 2 Democratic ticket, Kerry-Dean 3 (Neither) 4 (Not sure) Bush-Cheney Kerry-Dean (Neither) (NS) 8-9 Jun 04 44% 45 3 8 Battlegrounds 42% 48 4 6 12. What do you think is the most important issue for the federal government to address today? Which political party -- (The Republican Party) or (The Democratic Party) -- do you think has a better vision for the future of the country? Would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about the US economy right now? Yes No (NS) 8-9 Jun 04 53% 40 7 Dem 32% 61 7 Rep 78% 16 6 Ind 53% 40 7 23-24 Mar 0...
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