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Released: June 08, 2004 If Election Held Today - Kerry To Win 296 to 242, New Zogby Interactive Presidential Battleground Poll Reveals In the two weeks since the last Zogby Interactive poll, the American political scene has changed somewhat, and the poll numbers reflect that, for the first time in months, there were no major problems erupting in either Iraq or the domestic economy, not counting an occasional spike in local gas prices. The poll numbers reflect a slight improvement for the President. Based on interactive polls conducted June 1-6 by Zogby Interactive of Utica, New York in 16 battleground states around the country, Democratic presidential challenger John Kerry would defeat the incumbent today by an Electoral College tally of 296 to 242. However, races in several states are simply too close to call. Two weeks ago, Mr Kerry held a 102-vote lead in the Electoral College, 320-218. Most of the change comes in two key states - Ohio (with 20 votes) and Missouri (which has 11) - which both switched from the Kerry to the Bush column. Again, the races there are very close and could flip several more times before November. Mr Kerry, meanwhile, has captured two states - Iowa and West Virginia - that had favored Mr Bush two weeks ago. Since the last interactive polling was done, Republican President Bush went before the nation in what was billed as an important speech on the future of Iraq, where he vowed, as he has before, to stay the course. A new government has been established there since the last polling, and the latest 16 state-by-state surveys show Mr Bush benefited from that turn for the better. Mr Bush took advantage of geography in delivering that speech, which was carried live on cable - but not broadcast - television, and which received wide coverage in print. The speech was delivered at the Army War College in Carlisle, Pennsylvania, an important state in the election and one monitored by Zogby Interactive. Mr Bush is within striking distance in the Keystone state, but remains stuck several points behind Mr Kerry. The next day the President crossed the border into Ohio, making his 17th appearance there, this time in the economically depressed city of Youngstown. He pitched the wonders of health clinics that provide care to the needy, and which are partially funded with federal money. In Ohio, Mr Bush has seen a pleasant reversal of fortune, having regained a slight lead in what is perhaps the most critical of all states in the 2004 contest. But in Ohio, as in Florida, Iowa, and elsewhere, the races are too close to declare a definitive favorite. Mr Kerry spent time since the last polling on the West Coast in Washington and Oregon, perhaps sensing that he needs to shore up the entire western coastline if he is to have any chance to win. The poll suggests Mr Kerry's western swing was worth it - he leads in both Oregon and Washington. Al Gore won all three western coastal states four years ago. Meanwhile, Mr Kerry, who has been hammered since nailing down the nomination with the charge that he "flip-flops" on issues, appeared to do so again during the last two weeks when his campaign let slip that he was considering not accepting his party's nomination at the Democratic National Convention in his home town of Boston. Following an uproar, including criticism from fellow Massachusetts Sen. Edward Kennedy, he announced that he would indeed accept the nomination at the convention. Because the situation played into Republican stereotypes about Mr Kerry, he ended up a net loser for allowing the trial balloon take flight. Beginning with Mr Bush's speech at the war college on May 23, the candidates have talked more about their plans for the US in world affairs, no doubt in part because polls have shown that what happens overseas has gotten the attention of the American electorate. Both campaigns have promised more to come in the next three weeks leading up to the handoff of power from coalition forces to a sovereign Iraqi government. Mr Kerry and Mr Bush are both on television with advertising buys in the key states included in the poll, plus a handful of others. Mr Kerry's main ad is biographical in nature, though he has added issue ads. Mr Bush's are mostly negative, emphasizing Mr Kerry's propensity to "flip-flop" on issues. Millions are being spent on the ads, and with good reason. With the run-up to the Democratic convention promising to dominate the news after the July 4 holiday, and with the Olympics in August, the Republican convention in September, and the debates in October, June could be the last chance for the campaigns to wage their campaign battles on their own terms not dictated by events. Their standing in this edition of the poll sets the scene for what could be a mad dash to July. Of course, events in Iraq are unpredictable and dramatic developments could quickly change the political landscape here at home. Two happenings over the weekend just past are almost certain to have at least a short-term impact on the standing of the race. The passing of former President Ronald Reagan on Saturday, June 5, is going to lead to a week chock-full of television and radio retrospectives that warmly tout his conservative political philosophy. Having warned the nation a decade ago that he was suffering from Alzheimer's disease, Mr Reagan had grown to be a focus of sympathy among many Americans who now remember him more for his buoyant optimism and less for his public failings, including the Iran-Contra scandal that rocked his second term. Mr Kerry announced Sunday he had canceled five days of campaign events in honor of Mr Reagan. Celebrations of the 60th anniversary of the D-Day allied invasion at Normandy that turned the tide in an awful war that had to be fought may remind Americans that war is indeed a hellish experience. It may also remind them it is an enterprise from which Americans tend not to shrink, a thought that could bolster Mr Bush, even during bad days in Iraq. Pollster John Zogby: "The President had two good weeks and Senator Kerry is still playing a very cautious game. Thus, Mr Bush has picked up two states and tightened the race in several others. Kerry still leads among younger voters and will need to prove that he can energize them enough to come out and vote. He also leads in several of the states on the basis of strong support among independents and moderates. He is, however, not doing as well among Democrats as the President is doing among Republicans. The worst news for the Senator is that he is down in Ohio and Missouri and that Blue State New Mexico is only a tie. Losses in any of these states could spell doom for Kerry. Thus while the overall picture appears looks good for Kerry again, the closeness of most of these must-win states shows how competitive the race is this year. The President does particularly well among voters over 65. It will be important to see if this holds up as Democrats and seniors' groups vigorously attack the new Medicare program on prescription drugs.
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