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Contents * 10 Note to readers * 11 Summary * 12 Revisited--The Real Reasons for the Upcoming War With Iraq: A Macroeconomic and Geostrategic Analysis of the Unspoken Truth + 13 Synopsis + 14 Background on Hydrocarbons and US Geostrategy + 15 References * 16 Addendum: Notable International Monetary Movements + 17 European Commentary on the Essay: The Real Reasons for the Upcoming War With Iraq' + 18 Saving the American Experiment (March 10, 2003) + 19 References * 20 Post-War Commentary (January 1, 2004) + 21 Conclusion + 22 References * 23 Additional Recommended Reading Note to readers: I would like to thank the hundreds of people from all over the world that emailed me positive feedback throughout 2003 with respect to my research and Internet based essay on the Iraq war. Based on your overwhelmingly positive feedback and my own sense of patriotic duty, I am currently writing a book based on this research. Additionally, I am also working with a former government economist to construct an empirical model studying the possible effects of the dollar's valuation in response to a euro currency pricing mechanism for OPEC producers. The results of will hopefully be included in the proposed forthcoming book, tentatively entitled: Petrodollar Warfare: Oil, Iraq, and the Future of the Dollar (Available Fall 2004). For those who are already familiar with my original pre-war essay from January and March 2003, you may want to skip the opening parts of this essay and review the expanded section explaining the importance of Hydrocarbons regarding Peak oil and US Geostrategy, and then review my somewhat lengthy update from January 1, 2004. The main flaw from my original essay a year ago was an excessive focus on the macroeconomic perspectives of the Iraq war. In this essay, and in the forthcoming book, I have attempted to remedy this deficiency by including a detailed analysis of the oil depletion/geostrategic aspects, which appear to be second coalescing factor that lead to the Iraq war. Iraq enigma is simple yet shocking -- it is in large part an oil currency war. One of the core reasons for this upcoming war is this administration's goal of preventing further Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) momentum towards the euro as an oil transaction currency standard. However, in order to pre-empt OPEC, they need to gain geo-strategic control of Iraq along with its 2nd largest proven oil reserves. This is projected to occur around 2010, with Iraq and Saudi Arabia being the final two nations to reach peak oil production. The author advocates graduated reform of the global monetary system including a dollar/euro currency trading band' with reserve status parity, a dual OPEC oil transaction standard, and multilateral treaties via the UN regarding energy reform. Such reforms could potentially reduce future oil currency and oil warfare. The essay ends with a reflection and critique of current US economic and foreign policies. What happens in the 2004 US elections will have a large impact on the 21st century. Revisited -- The Real Reasons for the Upcoming War With Iraq: A Macroeconomic and Geostrategic Analysis of the Unspoken Truth "If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, it expects what never was and never will be . The People cannot be safe without information. Those words by Thomas Jefferson embody the unfortunate state of affairs that have beset our nation. As our government prepares to go to war with Iraq, our country seems unable to answer even the most basic questions about this upcoming conflict. First, why is there a lack of a broad international coalition for toppling Saddam? If Iraq's old weapons of mass destruction (WMD) program truly possessed the threat level that President Bush has repeatedly purported, why are our historic allies not joining a coalition to militarily disarm Saddam? Iraq has reconstituted its WMD program. Indeed, the Bush administration's claims about Iraq's WMD capability appear demonstrably false. Third, and despite President Bush's repeated claims, the CIA has not found any links between Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda. To the contrary, some intelligence analysts believe it is more likely Al Qaeda might acquire an unsecured former Soviet Union Weapon(s) of Mass Destruction, or potentially from sympathizers within a destabilized Pakistan. Moreover, immediately following Congress's vote on the Iraq Resolution, we suddenly became informed of North Korea's nuclear program violations. Kim Jong Il is processing uranium in order to produce nuclear weapons this year. President Bush was informed in January 2001of North Korea's suspected nuclear program). Despite the obvious contradictions, President Bush has not provided a rationale answer as to why Saddam's seemingly dormant WMD program possesses a more imminent threat that North Korea's active nuclear weapons program. Well, behind all the propaganda is a simple truth -- one of the core drivers for toppling Saddam is actually the euro currency, the -- 26 euro dollar symbol . Iraq enigma is simple yet shocking. The Real Reasons for this upcoming war is this administration's goal of preventing further OPEC momentum towards the euro as an oil transaction currency standard, and to secure control of Iraq's oil before the onset of Peak Oil (predicted to occur around 2010). However, in order to pre-empt OPEC, they need to gain geo-strategic control of Iraq along with its 2nd largest proven oil reserves. The following is how an individual very well versed in the nuances of macroeconomics alluded to the unspoken truth about this upcoming war with Iraq: "The Federal Reserve's greatest nightmare is that OPEC will switch its international transactions from a dollar standard to a euro standard. Iraq actually made this switch in Nov. Furthermore, despite Saudi Arabia being our client state,' the Saudi regime appears increasingly weak/threatened from massive civil unrest. Iraq 27 3 . Undoubtedly, the Bush administration is acutely aware of these risks. Hence, the neo-conservative framework entails a large and permanent military presence in the Persian Gulf region in a post-Saddam era, just in case we need to surround and control Saudi's large Ghawar oil fields in the event of a Saudi coup by an anti-western group. But first back to Iraq. Gulf War become inevitable under Bush II. Only the most extreme circumstances could possibly stop that now and I strongly doubt anything can -- short of Saddam getting replaced with a pliant regime. Further, the dollar-euro threat is powerful enough that they will rather risk much of the economic backlash in the short-term to stave off the long-term dollar crash of an OPEC transaction standard change from dollars to euros. Bush administration as the truth could potentially curtail both investor and consumer confidence, reduce consumer borrowing/spending, create political pressure to form a new energy policy that slowly weans us off Middle-Eastern oil, and of course stop our march towards a war with Iraq. This quasi state secret' is addressed in a Radio Free Europe article that discussed Saddam's switch for his oil sales from dollars to the euros, to be effective November 6, 2000: "Baghdad's switch from the dollar to the euro for oil trading is intended to rebuke Washington's hard-line on sanctions and encourage Europeans to challenge it. But the political message will cost Iraq millions in lost revenue. At the time of the switch many analysts were surprised that Saddam was willing to give up approximately $270 million in oil revenue for what appeared to be a political statement. However, contrary to one of the main points of this November 2000 article, the steady depreciation of the dollar versus the euro since late 2001 means that Iraq has profited handsomely from the switch in their reserve and transaction currencies. Indeed, The Observer surprisingly divulged these facts in a recent article entitled: Iraq nets handsome profit by dumping dollar for euro,' (February 16, 2003). Saddam Hussein has earned Iraq a windfall of hundreds of millions of euros. It was reported in 2003 that Iraq's UN reserve fund had swelled from $10 billion dollars to...
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