Berkeley CSUA MOTD:Entry 27685
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2025/07/09 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
7/9     

2003/3/13 [Politics/Foreign/Asia/Korea, Politics/Domestic/President/Clinton] UID:27685 Activity:nil
3/12    Beijing plans to use North Korea to help drive the US
        out of the Pacific - courtesy of FR
        http://www.brookesnews.com/031303zhang.html
        \_ The author is truly a man ahead of his time.
2025/07/09 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
7/9     

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Cache (5041 bytes)
www.brookesnews.com/031303zhang.html
Com Thursday 13 March 2003 Beijing's "long term strategic objective is to drive American bases and influence out of the Pacific region and to exercise hegemony over it". Since then events in the region have only strengthened my assessment. It has been decided in Beijing that North Korea will play a significant role in turning the Pacific-Asian region, which includes Australia and New Zealand, into Beijing's 'legitimate sphere of influence'. I think it is necessary to draw attention to these facts and they are facts because they help explain what is happening in North Korea. Without aid from Beijing and the West the regime would have imploded years ago. Furthermore, there is absolutely no possibility of successful reform. North Korea is on a permanent life support system until Beijing pulls the plug. It also means that Kim's nuclear and missile programmes were carried out with the full support of Beijing. I have said many times that I am not privy to the goings on of the inner party but my position does allow me pick up information from party officials. This information suggests that the regime's current policy on North Korea does not enjoy unanimous support and could very well change. Beijing's assessment of Clinton the man and his advisors persuaded her that Kim could successfully blackmail Washington, which he did with an ease that even surprised Beijing. The result of Clinton's cowardice was that Kim got nuclear weapons facilities and billions of dollars in aid, which relieved Beijing of the necessity of providing more aid to prop up the North. Threats, sabre rattling and outright lies got Kim and Beijing what they wanted. But Clinton has gone and Bush sits in the White House, radically changing the situation. This may have caused tension in Beijing with realists arguing that a change of tactics is now necessary, while those stuck in the Clinton era think all American presidents are basically the same as Clinton. The realists argue that Bush will not cave in as Clinton willingly did. To support their view they have argued that inciting Kim's wild fantasies could encourage Japan to resort to building a nuclear defence force, and perhaps even South Korea as well, and that this might lead to America extending its proposed anti-missile defence systems to these countries, making it even harder to dislodge America from the region. Although the Clinton school of thought argues that China can live with a nuclear armed Japan and South Korea the realists retort that why should China have to suffer nuclear weapons on its doorstep when it can avoid this situation while eventually ridding the region of American bases. It has apparently been put with some force that frightening Japan into building a nuclear strike force and strengthening its ties with the US could frustrate Beijing's plans for hegemony. And it will not allow him to launch a suicidal attack against the US. If this was five card stud, a game I used to play in Hong Kong, the Kim hand would have been thrown in ages ago. What we have is a situation that even Beijing does not quite know how to handle. The whole thing is conveyed as operating on an ad hoc basis. No matter how much Beijing party members differ on what to do with Kim, they all agree that the situation cannot continue indefinitely, particularly with Bush in the White House. First, Beijing quietly gives the nod to Bush to take out Kim's nuclear facilities and then plays the outraged world citizen while Bush goes down as the naked aggressor. This might play well in South Korea where North Korea has been funding anti-American organisations operated by North Korean agents of influence. They could create such a violent reaction that America might be forced to withdraw. The second solution would be to allow the North to completely implode and give sanctuary to Kim. This would immediately add 25 million starving North Koreans to the South's 46 million well fed citizens. The immediate effects on living standards and economic development would be devastating. It might take two generations for the economy to fully recover. As an apparent act of good faith Beijing could offer Korea nominal aid knowing that the US would be impelled to foot most of the bill. With Kim out of the way and Beijing bearing gifts, meagre as they would be, it is argued that Korea would no longer feel the need to host US forces and Japan would be relieved of the necessity to build nuclear weapons as a deterrent against the North. This situation, if it materialised, would be a win-win one for Beijing in its plans for political expansion. US forces would have been peacefully evicted out of a strategic part of mainland Asia leaving Japan feeling more optimistic about future relations with China. We will just have to wait to see which course of action Beijing will choose to take. Whatever is decided, Kim will stay in power until Beijing thinks it is time for him to go. I should add that Beijing fears that Kim might get too big for his boots and do something incredibly stupid.