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Commentary 10 Classified Ads 11 Letters 12 People Search 13 Health 14 Weather 15 TV Guide 16 MusicNetDaily 17 Movies 18 Stocks WND Exclusive STRATFOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATE Uniting Jordan, Iraq post-war goal? Eastern Editor's note: In partnership with Stratfor, the global intelligence company, WorldNetDaily publishes daily updates on international affairs provided by the respected private research and analysis firm. Look for fresh updates each afternoon, Monday through Friday. In addition, 19 WorldNetDaily invites you to consider STRATFOR membership, entitling you to a wealth of international intelligence reports usually available only to top executives, scholars, academic institutions and press agencies. The plan could be Washington's best scenario for ensuring a stable post-war Iraq. The idea of a central Iraq populated by Sunni Arabs joining with Jordan to form one Hashemite kingdom is being considered as one way to secure such gains. Israeli terrorism expert Ehud Sprinzak recently echoed this sentiment on Russian television Sept. In a nutshell, the plan may involve uniting Jordan and Sunni-populated areas of Iraq under the rule of the current Jordanian regime. This could be done if Iraqi Sunni leaders appeal to King Abdullah with such a request, which has a weak but still legally valid justification, as Abdullah is the second cousin of the last Iraqi king, Faisal II, who was overthrown in 1958. Who is floating the Iraq-Jordan idea, and who might benefit from its realization if it ever comes through? Although it might be wishful thinking by some Iraqi opposition members and Israeli media, it also could bring strategic benefits to the United States, Israel and Jordan. Vice President Dick Cheney and Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz, both considered the most hawkish of Bush administration officials. The fact that the Western-based Iraqi opposition completely depends on Washington supports these allegations. And Washington showed much interest in the Jordan-Iraqi opposition talks in which the Hashemite idea was discussed. An example is Afghanistan, in which the government of President Hamid Karzai still controls only the capital. The fiercest fighting could be expected for control over the oil facilities. But uniting Jordan and Iraq under a Hashemite government may give Washington several strategic advantages. After eliminating Iraq as a sovereign state, there would be no fear that one day an anti-American government would come to power in Baghdad, as the capital would be in Amman. That in turn would help the United States gain direct control of Iraqi oil and replace Saudi oil in case of conflict with Riyadh. As discussed in the Israeli media, the richest oil areas would go not to the Hashemite kingdom but to a widely autonomous Kurdish region that still could be formally a part of the Hashemite state. Were more states to adopt this example, the geopolitical influence of both Saudi Arabia and Egypt would decline, making it easier for Washington to deal with them. Possible benefits for Israel and Jordan The interest of Israeli experts and media to the Jordan-Iraq plan could be explained by the benefits Israel may get if the plan goes through. Iraq, arguably Israel's most determined foe, would be eliminated. Baghdad's end would deprive the Palestinians of much financial and other assistance, which could reduce the effectiveness of attacks against the Jewish state. In addition to his huge territorial gains, he also would get a chunk of Iraqi oil. And Palestinians, who currently make up half of Jordan's population, would become a minority in the new state, with much less potential to stir up trouble. The plan may not be free of negative consequences for Washington, however. Iraq's Shia majority - whose anti-Hussein opposition seems currently divided between the United States and Iran - probably would not agree to become a part of the new kingdom. Iran may interfere by urging Iraqi Shias to join with Tehran. Washington might counter by agreeing to attach the Shia Iraqi region to Kuwait, Israeli media speculates. Finally, it is unclear how Sunni tribal and other leaders inside Iraq would react. At this point, it does not seem that any decision has been made. Even if Washington did opt for a Jordan-Iraq plan, it would not make this goal public until Hussein was overthrown in order to secure Arab and Turkish support of the war, however half-hearted it would be.
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