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NEW YORK — Osama bin Laden, Saudi-born millionaire turned Islamic terror chieftain, has been on the radar of the United States since the days when both he and the CIA were fighting the Soviet Army in Afghanistan. Now, he is public enemy number one. NBC News investigative producer Robert Windrem has tracked bin Laden’s activities since the mid-1990s. Here are some questions and answers about bin Laden:
Interactive: Wanted: Osama bin Laden
Where is Osama bin Laden?
No one knows for sure. The U.S. has followed leads putting bin Laden in a wide variety of places in the Islamic world, from Yemen to Saudi Arabia to Iran. The last definitive evidence of his location was lost at the Afghan border with Pakistan in December 2001, when a voice believed to be his was last overheard in Tora Bora. In late 2001, combined U.S. military and intelligence operatives in Afghanistan searched the mountainous regions of western Pakistan, where they had picked up a pattern of phone communication between bin Laden and friends. Most intelligence analysts think bin Laden is still holed up in Pakistan’s treacherous border zone. An audio tape recording of bin Laden has proved that he was alive at least till late October, 2002.
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How often does U.S. intelligence know where he is?
Before Sept. 11, 2001, U.S. intelligence had gotten a better grasp on how he operated and from where. “We are getting better at finding him. There are days and days where we don’t know where he is,” said one U.S. official. On other days, the United States has “different degrees of specificity as to where he is. Does he move every night? Not every night ... but he moves a lot.” Vice President Dick Cheney said on Sept. 16, 2001 that the United States did not know where bin Laden currently was. That has held true. By late 2002, when an audio tape proved he had survived the Afghan campaign, U.S. agents concluded that bin Laden is hiding in a locale where he doesn’t move around much. Photo reconnaissance has not captured any “signatures” showing regular movement by guards or vehicles that might belong to bin Laden. While some 1,100 CIA analysts and covert operatives staff the terrorism hunt, operating out of Virginia, there are about 50 special officers who focus solely on the terrorist leader.
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How does bin Laden disguise his movements?
During his time in Afghanistan, bin Laden regularly varied the details of his movements. He varied not only the number of vehicles in his convoys, for example, but also the type of vehicle as well. On some travels, he gave his entourage hours’ notice of his departure. At other times, he left at a moment’s notice. Post-9/11, far less is known. U.S. experts believe only a hard core of no more than 20 dedicated guards knows of his presence, and they are pledged to die rather than give him up.
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How does he communicate?
His biggest problem remains communications, which the United States has successfully compromised during his time in Afghanistan. For a time, he used satellite phones, but that ended after a leak revealed that the U.S. was listening in.
More simple methods followed, primarily based on couriers. Bin Laden’s couriers often carry encrypted floppy disks and meet in third countries. Once in the hands of the target nation’s cell, the disk is de-encrypted. He has also used faxes from remote locations and in some cases, Internet-based e-mail. In addition to encryption, al-Qaida has used various code words and aliases to disguise identities. Bin Laden has been described in al-Qaida communications as “the Sheikh,” “Hajj,” “Abu Abdullah” and “the Director.” Fazul Abdullah Mohammed, mastermind of the embassy bombings, used at least three aliases. Ramzi Yousef, mastermind of the World Trade Center, used 15, as well as 11 passports. One law enforcement source said al-Qaida has been trying to recruit Americans as couriers, knowing an American passport is easier to use worldwide. Currently, bin Laden is believed to be hiding in Pakistan. Personal couriers riding on motorcycles and buses apparently pass messages from bin Laden in the tribal areas to al-Qaida’s hideouts in Pakistani cities like Peshawar and Karachi.
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Can he travel outside Afghanistan?
U.S. officials had hoped not, but the November 2002 audio tape bearing his voice seemed to prove otherwise. Officials doubt he is moving around much now, but they concede that he may have altered his appearance, and that would make such movements harder to detect.
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How is bin Laden’s terror network, al-Qaida, structured?
Bin Laden is the undisputed leader, called “emir” or “prince” by his followers, who must take a sworn oath to him, violation of which is punishable by death. Beneath him is the “shura al-majlis” or “consultative council,” which includes his top lieutenants. His two aides are Egyptians: Ayman al-Zawahiri, a physician and leader of al-Jihad, the violent Egyptian group responsible for the Luxor tourist massacre in 1995. Muhammed Atef, his military commander, also served in al-Jihad.
A “fatwah” committee of the council makes the decisions to carry out terrorist attacks.
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Where does al-Qaida operate?
Al-Qaida is believed to have operations in 60 countries, active cells in 20, including the United States. It is also believed to operate training centers in both Afghanistan and Sudan, the first beginning operations in 1994 with representatives from Egyptian, Algerian, Tunisian and Palestinian extremist groups. Among the countries or regions identified as having active cells of al-Qaida are Pakistan, Afghanistan, Kosovo, Chechnya, Philippines, Egypt, Tunisia.
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How does al-Qaida network operate?
Its operations are meticulous, with some plans in the works for months if not years. They are also clever, and bin Laden himself is very much hands-on.
Some examples:
* The 1993 World Trade Center bombers cased the twin towers multiple times, looking not just at security but the points under the trade center where an explosion could do the most damage.
* The East Africa embassy bombers phoned in credible threats to the embassy and then observed the embassy response.
* The 1995 assassination attempt of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, was based on surveillance of Mubarak’s security arrangements in Ethiopia two years earlier. Similarly, bin Laden operatives videotaped security arrangements at President Clinton’s 1994 visit to Manila, knowing he had already committed to visiting the Philippine capital for an Asian-Pacific summit two years later. The tapes were sent to bin Laden, then living in Sudan.
“He may have begun as a venture capitalist for terrorism,” said one high-ranking intelligence officer of his evolution as a terrorist. “But there is no doubt now that he is operating like a CEO.”
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How long is an operation in the planning stages?
The minimum appears to be four to six months, with some plans evolving over years. The surveillance of the East Africa embassy bombings began in 1993, five years before the bombing was carried out.
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How are operational responsibilities divided?
Each operation has a planning cell and an execution cell, with the execution cell arriving on the scene in some cases only weeks before the attack is carried out.
In most cases, like the 1993 World Trade Center bombing and the embassy bombings, an outsider recruits local country nationals to operate as a cell. Cells rarely number more than 10 people. In rare cases are the bombers — either the planners or the operators — older than 30. At the time of the two bombings, the masterminds were both 25.
Plans are made in one location, then the bomb is made in another. In the 1993 World Trade Center bombing, the planning took place in a Jersey City, N.J., apartment, the materials were stored in a self-storage facility and the bomb was put together in a garage. Similarly in Nairobi, the planning was done at a run-down hotel in downtown, while the bomb was put together in a suburban villa.
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How much do these operations cost? Bin Laden has enormous resources. Is he using up most of his money?
“Terrorism is not an expensive sport,” said one senior Treasury Department official who tracks terrorists’ money. The total cost of the 1993 World Trade Center attack amounted to around $18,000, including purchase of equipment, rental of the van used in the bombing, purchase of a car, rental of two apartments, a garage and the self-storage space as well as plane tickets. Not included in the cost: $6,000 in unpaid phone bills.
Although at the time of the embassy bombings, the CIA and others pegged bin Laden’s wealth at $300 million, subsequent intelligence gathering has resulted in a significant reduction of the estimate, although the number is still in the tens of millions.
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Does he focus on one target at a time or simultaneously plan various attacks?
Said one official of his recent planning, “He is planning several hits, and at some point he’s going to break through.” U.S. officials note that the embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania were to be accompanied by other, near-simultaneous bombings in other world capitals. One in Tirana, Albania, was foiled days before it took place, so a series of coordinated attacks is well within his operational capabilities. In a November 2002 audio recording, bin Laden warned of ‘spectacular’ attacks against America and its allies. Officials say they believe some of these attacks might already have been in the planning stages.
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How important is operational security to al-Qaida?
Very, say officials. They have seen repeated instances where if operatives encounter something unexpected, they will “go back to square one” out of fear that operational security has been breached. There is little autonomy, little spontaneity in operational matters and changes in plans must be approved at higher levels. The cell leader on the scene can call off an operation without consulting anyone higher, said a senior intelligence official.
Said one counter-terror official: “They have one idea ... alter it for them, then they go back to the drawing board. They are not agile. They have to reload, and that takes months ... about four to six months.”
“They are very willing to trade time for operational security.”
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Has the United States had any success against his operations?
If we were to gauge our progress on the war on terror by the criteria laid out by the president a year ago - of whether or not we find bin Laden dead or alive - we haven’t made a lot of progress. Yet, in the past year, “Numerous senior leaders of al-Qaida ... have either been eliminated, incarcerated or detained someplace,” according to National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice.
And several planned attacks and plots have been foiled by intelligence agencies of various countries working in close cooperation with one another.
Without providing details, CIA Director George Tenet has publicly testified that the CIA has disrupted “several” terrorist attacks against Americans. U.S. officials confirm those disruptions have involved planned attacks by bin Laden. But pride in those successes diminished considerably after the Sept. 11, 2001 catastrophe.
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Are his operations limited to bombings or does he have aspirations in the nuclear, biological and chemical areas?
Officials from intelligence, military, emergency management and national security agencies say bin Laden is branching out: planning assassinations using “contact poisons,” obtaining “rudimentary” chemical and biological materials, trying to acquire radioactive material.
The newest information, which one official called “fascinating,” is that bin Laden may be returning to an old strategy: assassination. One Pentagon official involved in tracking bin Laden says the man officials call “the terrorist prince” has been obtaining “contact poisons ... KGB-like pellets” that would be used in assassinations and in some cases are difficult or impossible to detect in an autopsy. The official noted that in the early 1990s bin Laden and his al-Qaida network were involved in assassination attempts on Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and Jordanian Crown Prince — now King — Abdullah as well as planning to kill Pope John Paul and President Clinton.
He added that public U.S. intelligence reports on bin Laden’s training camps have noted the network has instructed terrorists in assassination and kidnapping.
The contact poisons are among “rudimentary chemical and biological stuff” bin Laden has obtained recently. However, one official said the network’s efforts to obtain such materials is “scattershot and unfocused ... all over the board” without a pattern to indicate what he might be planning.
“He is looking for all sorts of stuff,” adding that twice bin Laden operatives tried to obtain nuclear materials. Bin Laden’s German operation was the victim of a sting operation in 1993 when it tried to buy highly enriched uranium on the Soviet black market. A year later, another similar attempt failed. The bin Laden operatives in charge of those attempts, Mamdouh Salim and Ramzi Yousef, are in U.S. custody. Moreover, Russian intelligence has told the United States that it believes bin Laden has been working with Chechen rebels to obtain radioactive material for a “radiological dispersal device” or “dirty bomb” that would spray the potentially deadly material over a small area. An official involved in planning emergency response to a terrorist attack says the United States has taken the intelligence seriously.
However, officials cautioned that there is “no sense of a technical sophistication” in bin Laden’s camp and that “this stuff is much more difficult to use than people think.
“After all, Saddam Hussein spent $8 billion on nuclear weapons and came away with (nothing). He doesn’t know how to do this. He is spending every night in a different mud hut, so we’re not too worried that he is reprocessing plutonium.”
On the other hand, the official added, “if he is stumbling onto something, there is no doubt he will use it.”
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Why haven’t we tried to grab him?
Before Sept. 11, 2001, plans to do just that had been discussed by the Clinton and Bush administrations. “We are serious about going after him,” said one senior Bush administration official. “He is serious about going after us. If we can nail his ass, we will. But it is going to be action and reaction for a long time.”
Doing a “snatch-and-grab” operation from “time to time looks appealing,” said a Pentagon official.
Of course, it never happened.
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How is his health?
A senior counter-terrorism official said the latest CIA analysis is that he is “a hypochondriac ... but then he has chosen a stressful lifestyle and that can manifest itself in strange ways ...”
Nevertheless, he is known to have an enlarged heart, chronically low blood pressure and is missing toes on one foot from a battle wound suffered in Afghanistan. He is regularly attended by a physician.
Since Sept. 11, reports that he is dependent on kidney dialysis have emerged, and that led Pakistan’s President Musharraf to surmise that he probably died in the mountains of Afghanistan for lack of treatment. Obviously, that was incorrect.
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Is there any indication he works with governments in the Middle East?
Aside from Afghanistan, where bin Laden has long-standing ties — including some possible family ties — with the ruling Taliban, there are indications bin Laden has some contacts with both the governments of Iran and Pakistan.
The connections with Iran are described in recent Justice Department papers filed in the embassy bombing case. The United States alleges that on two different occasions in the early 1990s, a senior religious leader from Iran met with bin Laden’s representatives in Khartoum to discuss putting aside religious differences — bin Laden is a Wahabi Muslim, Iran is Shiite — and cooperating against Western interests. However, there is no information to suggest any joint operations were ever planned or carried out.
The link with Pakistan is more current. One issue that distresses U.S. officials is intelligence that bin Laden, Kashmiri Muslim rebels in India and Pakistan’s Inter-Service Intelligence [ISI], its quasi-autonomous military intelligence agency, are involved in “monkey business” together. The United States used the ISI in the 1980s to fund, train and arm the Afghan mujahedin, including bin Laden, in its fight against the Soviet Red Army.
Calling it a “stew,” a “crazy soup” and a “cozy relationship,” two officials noted that the key to the relationship is Pakistan’s use of rebel insurgents in Kashmir, the troubled region that has been the subject of three wars between Pakistan and India. Muslim fighters, financed by the ISI but trained by bin Laden, have been operating in the Indian part of Kashmir.
“The Pakistanis have interest in working with people who can help them in Kashmir. Bin Laden has an interest in helping Muslim fighters. It is a cozy relationship.”
In fact, said the officials, the United States now believes that most of those killed in last August’s attack on bin Laden camps in Afghanistan were Kashmiri insurgents training to kill Indians. And that linkage, they note, is critical to understanding both bin Laden’s network and the future of religious terrorism. Bin Laden, they note, has had connections over the years with other terrorist groups in Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Egypt, Chechnya, Bosnia, Albania, Algeria, Uruguay and Ecuador.
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