6/26     Finally i read something which had some REASON and showed the
        writer has actually looked at the economy and not just the
        numbers

        "The simple truth is that many businesses don't see any need to
        buy new equipment until the earnings forecast improves. No amount
        of Fed easing can induce a business to buy computers,
        fiber-optics, semiconductors or routers it can't use
        productively.
        "The unwinding of excess inventory and the hangover from the
        investment boom are impervious to short rates," said Ian
        Shepherdson, chief U.S.  economist at High Frequency Economics."

          Now if only something like this would get the exposure it
        requires and people come to realize that the manufacturing
        activity we had the last 2 years aint coming back. Remember the
        real estate boom 87-89.  baloon broke and didn't come back until
        around like 96-97. We are in a similar situation right now with
        manufacturing. But all you need to do it  ride up to the the
        mountain behind berkeley- I can't believe I forgot its name- and
        look out at the city- the streets and markets the cars and see
        how we (humans) are just leaches sucking everything from
        somewhere else.  The whole purpose of a city - the layout , the
        homes, the streets, utility lines, it to bring consumption to the
        consumers. I remember when I first saw it- on a bike ride with
        whsv, and you begin to believe just how powerful the
        consumption distrbuters are. You think everyone of those houses
        has a computer running windows, each one has an internet
        conenction, they all have cable, they all have to go to store,
        they all need to do to school ( yes school is a form of
        consumption - at least in my definition and considering it is my
        PhD thesis it better be right- people are basing everything off
        of human capital and i want to get in as the contrarian before
        they all start to realize they were all wrong- but it should be
        based off consumption- human capital requires consumption as a
        basis building block- Investment is slightly different as it is
        based solely on savings- if you consume now you can't invest
        direct trade off- ah my mind is beginning to work again-
          all the economists modelled "learning" as an investment-this
        correctly forecast the past 3 years of expansion- but it can't
        model the abrupt slowdown. If we look at consomption we get a
        better picture of the world- and note interesting enough I have
        flipped the tables a little- this defines elderly and the yound
        as pure consumers which are "bad" as they can't invest anything
        blah blah blah-
          my golf practice got rained out....... and I aint got nothing
        better to do. sorry for the words.
        \_ Is something wrong with kinney?  Someone have lunch with him
           and be his friend, please.