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Sue Ann Bowling may be of interest, particularly the stunning shift of temperatures at about 1976, and the comment about upper level winds. At the time she wrote that article in 1987, the "PDO" (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) had not yet been noticed, much less named. Large Negative Southern Oscillation Daily Values (4 Apr 04) updated (14 Apr 04) First, the caveat: ** Daily values are not the SOI but contribute to the calculation of the monthly SOI (Southern Oscillation Index). However, daily values that are more negative than -50 (in the "Long Paddock" scale) are not common. Since June of 1991, and prior to the first of this month, there were only eighteen of them 10 listed here, seven in 1992, four in 1997, and seven in 1998. Those years may seem familiar to observers of ENSO activity. For a reminder, see a graph of inverted three month SOI averages that 11 you may recall. The daily values may bear watching for a while, so this item may be updated frequently. Reality Checks Bounce (26 Mar 04) updated (28 Mar 04) According to the Evening Times of Glasgow, Scotland, 12 Thousands ignorant of global warming. ONE in 10 Scots believes that climate change is not a reality, according to a new study. Considering the way some people talk about "climate change", reality is not the first word that comes to mind. And 66% of Scots do not think the effects of global warming will be seen for another 50 years or more according to research by the Energy Saving Trust. Federal scientists have found the "smoking gun" that proves human activity is having an effect on earth's climate. The only question is whether we will act before it is too late. For example, there are the questions of what magnitudes, and what kinds, of effects? For another, how does the alledged "smoking gun" "prove" any such effects? Not surprisingly, answers to those questions are not to be found in that editorial. Indeed, the editorial does not even explicitly identify the alledged "smoking gun"; When writing a few days ago about an AP CO2 "story", I was reminded of a common lament about inept news "reporters": don't those guys have editors? It would seem that regarding this Citizen-Times editorial, the editor needs an editor. Perhaps NCDC Director Thomas Karl could help the editor find a way through the smoke. Climate change, usually termed global warming, is one of those subjects that is ripe for demagoguery. Santer also happened to be in a position to slip that bit into chapter eight of the IPCC SAR in what seems to have been an example of "climate change science" in action. Most frightening is the possibility of a large-scale meltdown of the polar ice sheets, resulting in higher sea levels. Paradoxically, increases in some pollutants could actually help cool the planet in the short run by blocking some of the sun's heat. This is believed to be the reason that the surge in fossil fuel use after World War II did not result in warming until the 1970s. Perhaps someday the editor would care to elaborate on that "believed" "reason", possibly by referring readers to something such as a graph displaying the UK CRU's 15 estimates of global, and hemispheric, temperature variances from a recent average. Perhaps there might be a suggestion that the relative changes between the northern, and the southern, hemispheres might support such a "believed" "reason" on the supposition that "increases in some pollutants" may have occurred mainly in the northern hemisphere, inasmuch as that was where most of the fighting occurred, and most of the "surge in fossil use" occurred, and there were smoking guns all over the place, and they were real. As an exercise for our visitors, I will let you discover what the editorial has to say about the Kyoto Protocol. Hint: the editor seems not to have read Fred Singer's excellent recent 16 article. Discordant Accord (23 Mar 04) 17 The Kyoto Protocol: A Post-Mortem A recent article by S. Fred Singer concisely summarizes some of the history, and some of the bizarre aspects, of the Kyoto Protocol. Here are just a couple of samples: "But the facts have always made it clear that Kyoto would be outrageously costly and completely ineffective-as designed, it would not even noticeably influence the climate. And more importantly, in light of recent developments, the treaty is essentially defunct. When confronted with that little-publicized fact, supporters of the Protocol admit that Kyoto is intended only as a first step, and that greenhouse gases will someday have to be further reduced by between 60 and 80 percent of 1990 emission levels. CO2 Report Makes the Rounds (21 Mar 04) updated (23 Mar 04) 18 Carbon Dioxide Reported at Record Levels Atmospheric CO2 concentrations have been measured at the Mauna Loa Observatory, and monthly, and annual, averages have been posted in ppmv at a 19 CDIAC website for several years. Here are graphic summaries of annual averages, and annual increases, since 1960. On Saturday, March 20, an AP (Associated Press) story began making the rounds, and by Sunday, it was posted on several dozens of "news" websites hither and yon, and perhaps beyond yon. How much of the story might be credible is anyone's guess. Aside from the generic CO2 phobia displayed, there are statements that are particularly pertinent to the "story" of the story, but are either false, or too vague to tell the "story". The "hovered around 379 parts per million on Friday, compared with about 376 a year ago" part is too vague, and possibly false. It's so vague that one cannot be sure that the author has a grasp of his subject. It does not specify the period for which the average of 379 ppm was calculated. If so, it is not comparable to the monthly averages available at CDIAC. If so, someone must have a time machine at their disposal in order to be able to compare last year's annual average with this year's annual average, since this year is not yet quite complete. So, it seems that we must wait a while to find out the real "story" of the story. Miceal O'Ronain has provided, in both 21 tabular , and 22 graphical , forms, nice compilations of year to year differences of monthly averages of Mauna Loa CO2 measurements. Whether the observations support all of the inferences that the authors suggest is another question, but making the observations, noticing that they contradict the "climate models", and saying so in public, is useful information. In addition to the useful information the press release includes assorted silly statements. As for the inference that the feedback loop can be quantified by comparing humidity measurements in the tropical upper troposphere with tropical sea surface temperatures, such an inference may be viewed as requiring more studies, and more funding. At the link you can find a brief article which seems to 24 accept that inference. A very different kind of study of atmospheric water vapor may be of 25 interest to some. A summary graph based on that study, but including data from 1988 through 1999, 26 seems to indicate that global average atmospheric water vapor content can vary disproportionately to global average sea surface temperatures. In viewing that graph, it is useful to keep in mind that the recently reported study concentrated on tropical phenomena, not global, and that tropical seas, particularly in the "warm pool" vicinity, emit much more water vapor per square kilometer than cooler seas. As has been mentioned from time to time, some things, including atmospheric phenomena, may not be as simple as they may sometimes appear, regardless of what this, or that, computer model may suggest. Lomborg Announcement (12 Mar 04) Scientific Dishonesty Committee Withdraws Lomborg Case The Danish Committee on Scientific Dishonesty (DCSD) today announced it would not reopen the case concerning Bjrn Lomborg's book, "The Skeptical Environmentalist". In December 2003 The Danish Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation completely rejected the DCSD finding that "The Skeptical Environmentalist" was "objectively dishonest" or "clearly contrary to the standards of good scientific practice". The Ministry, which is responsible for the DCSD, found that the committee'...
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