3/17    Does anyone think the housing market will crash like the stock market?
        I heard housing prices are already down some 4%
        since beginning of the year.
        \_ No.  It's only going to get worse.  Look back at 1998's prices, the
           last time the housing market "crashed".  Prices now are way higher
           than before that so-called crash.  If you have some fantasies about
           buying some jobless dotcommer's house for a song, forget it.
        \_ 4% is peanuts.  They're still going up in my area.  The town houses
           are now up to where the low end houses were a year ago in my area.
        \_ In my area the housing prices are up. Last fall houses like mine
           (okay my parents) were going for ~ 750K - 900K, today my mom and I
           went walking and we saw several houses for sale with the prices
           ranging from 950K - 1.1M.
           I'm giving up my plan to move to Saratoga, San Jose is too expensive
           for me. Guess I'll have to start looking somewhere cheaper like
           Campbell or Freaqmont.
           I'm giving up my plan to move to Saratoga, as even San Jose is too
           expensive for me. Guess I'll have to start looking somewhere cheaper
           like Campbell or Freaqmont.
           \_ Fremont homes are about 630k-700k
                 \_ Uh no, homes in my uncle's neighborhood (Ardenwood) are
                    more like 350k to 450k. Still, I don't fancy living that
                    close to the riff-raff. Oh well, I guess I'll just have
                    to wait for my portfolio to recover.
                    \_ um. no, 600k for homes in aredenwood
                       \_ Well, the house two doors down from his is listed
                          for 425k. I just saw it today. Mind you he's near
                          880, Deep Creek and Paseo Padre and the houses in
                          his area are older ~ 15 yrs.
                          The nicer ones are about 600k, but I'm not
                          interested in paying 600k to live that close to
                          riff-raff.
                    \_ but by then, everyone else's will recover too and
                       prices will go back up
                       \_ Well, its pay 400k for a house in freqmont now
                          or wait till my 400k becomes 1m and buy a house
                          then. In Saratoga, the prices for the houses I'm
                          looking at have hovered around 950k to 1.25m for
                          the last 5 years. Not many buyers on the high end.
                    \_ Ardenwood?  Ew.
              \_ I hear Modesto is still fairly cheap.
              \_ And Fremont is a pit, too.
                 \_ what's wrong with Fremont?
                 \_ is your head too big already?
        \_ anyone know a good contractor or architect?
           want to demolish a home, rebuild one w/ a basement
           \_ Are you in CA? If so, you probably can't get a permit to build
              a basement because of the earthquake zoning laws for residential
              properties.
              \_ a number of new homes in the Bay Area have included basements.
                 besides, wouldn't it be okay with some sort of rolling
                 foundation (like in the Winchester House)?
              \_ my uncle did that with a new house after a teardown. Added
                 a whole other basement floor with office, big-screen movie
                 room, 2 bedrooms, pool-table and separate entrance
                 \_ which contractor did he use? can you email me- turin
              \_ actually houses w/ basements  are better to survive
                earthquakes because you have easy access to install steel
                support mounts on the main supports thus reinforcing them.
                \_ Well there are other problems with basements and earth-
                   quakes. I remember Prof. Chopra in CE explaining in some
                   class, something about standing waves or something. Wish
                   I had been paying attention. Oh well, it was almost 6 yrs
                   ago and I only took CE because of some stupid department
                   policy.
           \_ Going to pay 500k for a knock down and another 300 to build
              over it?
              \_ demo jobs are 20-40k and done in 2 days (demolition)
           \_ Just be prepared to wait 6-9 months for them to have time.
                \_ That's "to have to time to get started on it".
        \_ Depend on the price-range the house is in and location.
           I bet the most expensive homes will take a hit. More moderately
           priced homes, maybe not so much. Those in excellent school
           districts or easy commutes...you know. I personally know of two
           recent sales, in Union City and San Jose, both got sold
           for slightly above asking price, but each only had two bids.
           But both i would consider sort of on the high-priced-end for
           this uncertain economic time. My aunt sold a Los Altos home
           about 1.25 year ago for an outrageous profit. The guy who bought
           it did some minor remodeling and 9 mos. later put it back on the
           market, asking $1,000,000 more than he bought it for. The
           house is still for-sale. Not sure if it even got any offers.
           \_ I have been house hunting in San Francisco for six months,
              and I can tell you that houses here have definitely gone
              down. About 10% for the 1M+ properties and a bit less for
              the "reasonable" 500M one bedroom condos. -ausman
              \_ 10% down for a million+ house isn't a big deal.  The numbers
                 on that end of the scale are semi-random anyway and much more
                 dependent on the details of that particular seller and
                 location than the market as a whole.  500k for a one bedroom
                 condo is insane even if it was 600k the week before.