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| 11/23 |
| 2004/3/18-19 [Finance/Investment] UID:12747 Activity:moderate |
3/18 I flipped open my WSJ today and there are two articles on the
front page, one saying that commodity prices are shooting
through the roof, the other saying that asian countries may
be slowly diverting their trade surplus investment from US
treasuries to their own economies. Does that mean inflation
is coming and interest rates will be rising?
\_ I dunno. If you do, you could be the next Soros. But I think
it is a pretty safe bet that interest rates will be rising
sooner or later.
\_ It's not enought just to know that inflation is coming.
You also need to know how to make money off that.
\_ If you think bond interest rates will rise, you could
short bonds. If you're wrong, you're screwed, of course.
If you think there will be inflation, buy some stable
commodity's futures on margin.
\_ Soros is a scumbag.
\_ Mmmm.. unsolicited insult. Go motd.
\_ unsolicited? since when are insults ever solicited?
you are a fucking idiot. you managed to solicit an
insult with your incredible stupidity.
\_ I will explain. You tossed a pointless statement
into a discussion with nothing to tie it in. Do
you like being ineffective? Or do you just like to
rant? Maybe Tourette's?
\_ fuck you! -motd
\_ Done. -yermom
\_ just because he tossed millions to http://moveon.org to create
negative ads about President Bush...
\_ no because he made billions destroying economies.
\_ what soros did to se asia economies was fantastic.
force those economies to become more transparent
and less corrupt. - se asian
\_ hahaha yes how ethical of him to grab a few
billion along the way. im sure he did it for the
children.
\_ nothing unethical about it. if it's un-
ethical, then all traders and the whole
free market system is unethical.
\_ someone is going to do it
\_ the biggest US treasury bond holders are Japan and China. If they
stop buying US assets, the US will run out of money. The only
way to seduce (for lack of better word) investment back in US
would be to raise the interest rate, but this would come at the
cost of the domestic economy, and everyone who has to pay off their
loan either in mortgage or credit card. It really comes down to
whether foreigners continue to "lend" to us. (Of course, this
excludes the political and military chips we have which no one
else in this world has).
\_ raising interest rates will have *zero* effect on current
mortgage holders or most CC holders who have locked in rates.
so you think japan is going to do what? invest in their own
zero rate bonds? go to the EU? China is going to do the same?
very nutty.... i love the motd. some of the most pompus are
the least informed but don't let that stop you.
the least informed but don't let that stop you.
\_ Most CC holders have locked in rates???
\_ yea but I have noticed that in the past, people have been
getting 30 or 15 year fixed but these few years, it
seems that everyone I asked has been getting 5-year
ARM so they may very well get hit if interest rate goes
up. As for Japan and China, they may use the money to
bail out their debt-laden banks, which is one way
to invest in their local economies.
\_ anyone who gets an ARM when fixed interest rates are
\_ the problem is if things turn bad, it's going
to hurt the whole economy.
below 6% is a fucking moron who gets what he deserves.
\_ do you understand that an ARM doesn't instantly go up?
a 5 year arm is rate locked for (guess what?) 5 years.
after that the rate is allowed to rise a small amount
every year until it hits a maximum amount which is not
allowed to be too far above current rates. people getting
5 year arms are either selling in the next 5-7 years, are
putting the money saved back into the loan which will
dramatically reduce the total cost over term or are
blazingly stupid. As for J/C, their banks should *not*
be saved. Especially in Japan, there is a direct link
between their multiple attempts to waste money trying to
save their inefficient and poorly run banks and their
current dismal economy which has been in the dumps for
more than 10 years.
\_ there are many ways to "save" the banks. even
if you do it the right way (like in the US S&L
bailout), it requires money, money potentially
diverted from US treasuries purchases. As for
5 year ARMS, many people are already a few years
into it, and the interest rate can go up by
like 2.5% at the 5 year juncture which is a 50%
jump if the rate is originally 5%. Many
people are stretching thin on mortages, buying
bigger houses than they should, thinking
that housing price will increase and they can
just sell and make a profit after 5 years.
We saw plenty of "blazingly stupid" behavior
during the internet bubble, so I am not
surprised at all.
\_ if they're a few years into an ARM, they can get
\_ ARMs were not very popular, but are getting
more popular. http://www.dqnews.com
a fixed-rate mortgage at probably the same rate
they're already paying, so they should refinance.
Do you have any documentation of the idea that
there's a huge glut of stupid ARM holders? -tom
\_ ARMs were not very popular, but are getting
more popular. http://www.dqnews.com |
| 11/23 |
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| www.dqnews.com -> www.dqnews.com/ Most Common Last Name: Garcia was the most common last name of homebuyers in California in 2002. Top Lender Update: Washington Mutual remained Californias most active home mortgage lender in 2003, followed by Wells Fargo Home Mortgage and Bank of America ranked by residential loan $. Least Expensive Communities: San Bernardino county has some of the lowest median home prices in the state. Most Expensive Communities: In the 4th quarter of 2003, the five CA cities with the most million-dollar sales were: Manhattan Beach, La Jolla, Newport Beach, Rolling Hills Estates and Hillsborough. Adjustable-rate Mortgages: California home buyers chose ARMs for 60 of their purchases in February of 2004. ARM usage was highest in the Bay Area and lowest in the Central Valley. Refinancing Boom: California residential refinancing activity in 2003 was up 46 from 2002. The fourth quarter of 2003 saw a slowing, down 26 from the same period a year ago. |
| moveon.org -> www.moveon.org/front/ The Movie the White House Doesn't Want You to See On Memorial Day weekend, Hollywood is releasing a summer blockbuster movie that's making the Bush administration very nervous. Because it's a disaster movie about a potential climate crisis. While "The Day After Tomorrow" is more science fiction than science fact, everyone will be talking about it -- and asking "Could it really happen?" This is an unprecedented opportunity to talk to millions of Americans about the real dangers of global warming and expose President Bush's foot-dragging on the issue. Responding to Torture Reports and photographs of Iraqi prisoners being tortured and abused by US and British troops have shocked the world. We've got to support an immediate, independent, impartial and public investigation into all allegations of torture. To be credible, the investigation should be done by an international body, including representatives of Arab nations. We've got to get to the bottom of this, and we've got to do it now. Censure Bush for Misleading Us In an attempt to evade responsibility for the misleading statements that pushed the nation into war, Bush has announced plans to form an independent inquiry to look into what went wrong. An inquiry would serve the Bush administration well: it would envelop the issue in a fog of uncertainty, deflect blame onto the intelligence services, and delay any political damage until 2005, after the upcoming election. Despite repeated warnings from the CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency, President Bush and his administration hyped and distorted the threat that Iraq posed. And now that reality is setting in, the President wants to pin the blame on someone else. Congress has the power to censure the President -- to formally reprimand him for betraying the nation's trust. MoveOn's 50 Ways to Love Your Country How to Find Your Political Voice and Become a Catalyst for Change Written by MoveOn members across the country, from Hawaii to Maine, from political figures to teachers, this collection of essays shares compelling personal stories and action items with resources for taking inspiration a step further. Simple ideas are illuminated, such as "His Last Vote," about a dying man's wish to cast a ballot, as are more dynamic actions, such as "Start a Petition," which chronicles a couple's quest to protect wolves from trappers in Alaska. MoveOn's 50 Ways to Love Your Country answers the question that more and more citizens are asking: "What can I do?" Protect our Kids from Mercury Pollution Under energy industry pressure, President Bushs EPA plans to defer controls on mercury emissions by power plants for at least a decade. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that 49 million women of childbearing age in the US -- that's 8 percent -- have unsafe levels of mercury in their blood. The people hit hardest will be new-born infants -- every year over 630,000 infants are born with levels of mercury in their blood so high they can cause brain damage. We have just a few weeks to get public comments to the EPA on this plan to defer mercury controls. It's time to tell the EPA and the White House that our kids come first. Al Gore Speaks on Global Warming and the Environment Beacon Theater, New York January 15, 2004, Noon In this, his third major speech sponsored by MoveOn, Mr Gore issued an indictment of the Bush administration's inaction on global warming, linking the issue to national security. He showed that global warming is not a future threat -- it is happening now. And yet, the President is choosing to help his coal- and oil-company supporters rather than advance modern technologies that can affordably solve this critical problem. Support Kerry's call to fire Rumsfeld May 7, 2004 In the wake of revelations of torture and abuse of Iraqi prisoners, John Kerry has launched an important petition calling for President Bush to fire Donald Rumsfeld. Getting rid of Secretary Rumsfeld would be a huge step forward for all of us who oppose the Bush war policy, and Kerry needs to hear our support. Help win the election this Saturday May 3, 2004 This Saturday, we're joining other grassroots groups in the largest day of voter mobilization in American history. MoveOn members will gather at parties across the country to make over 100,000 phone calls in one afternoon to swing state voters. In an election that could be won or lost with a handful of votes, we'll work to turn out every last progressive voter and send George Bush packing. |