www.andrewsullivan.com -> www.andrewsullivan.com/
The best news from Iraq is that the moderate Shiite establishment is actively trying to defuse the al Sadr rebellion. Adnan said that if the Americans agreed not to send forces into Najaf, and not to seek the immediate arrest of Mr. Sadr on the pending warrant, which charges him with complicity in the April 2003 murder of a rival cleric, Mr. The clerics at the meeting included the sons of three of Iraqs most venerated grand ayatollahs, including Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who is regarded as the countrys most powerful religious figure. Better still, if this showdown forces the other Shiite figures into a more proactive and constructive role - as potential rulers of Iraq - then we will have found people to whom real power can be transferred. Alas, I was giving a talk down here in Mississippi when the president was talking and so cannot write about his appearance or demeanor. Better to have made a speech a month ago, taking responsibility for the lack of WMD stockpiles and reminding Americans that we still have a very long slog ahead of us in Iraq. But, unless I missed a truly bad performance, the transcript looks competent to me. MORE ENCOURAGEMENT: Yes, I think John Kerrys faith in the United Nations is misplaced. But I was struck by how grown-up his Washington Post op-ed was yesterday. Can you imagine him saying anything like that during the primary season? It was at least a relief that the Democrats are not going to use Iraq as a political football in the future quite as egregiously as they have so far. The most reassuring passage: The president must rally the country around a clear and credible goal. But the stakes are too great to lose the support of the American people. What he doesnt see, I fear, is the scope of the enemy represented in Iraq and looming in neighboring countries. The problem now, as Michael Ledeen has rightly insisted, is that you cannot deal with Iraq alone. Iran, in particular, is eager to intervene - and is meddling to prevent representative government from coming about in Iraq. We cannot challenge every regime at once, of course, but we do need to keep in mind that the conflict is regional, that other terror-masters are involved, and that stabilizing Iraq is the beginning, not the end, of a real strategy to roll back Islamist terror. AND MORE: A heartening story of American Kurds thanking returning United States Soldiers. Im also encouraged by the relatively mature way in which the West has responded to the hideous hostage-taking by various extremists in Iraq. This time, we seem to have taken this appalling tactic in stride and refused to accede to it in any way. Im not saying, of course, that we shouldnt be mortified by the cost to human life - and the families and friends of the captured. But I am saying that being able to withstand this attempted blackmail - and not succumb to media hype - will prevent further such kidnappings in the future. By broadcasting so much obvious propaganda on a daily basis, we are now inured to it, unshocked.
Im with Mickey in believing that earlier elections - even by the not-terribly-reliable basis of ration-cards - would be preferable to later elections. Mickeys key point: An early election would make it clear to all Iraqis that any disruptive violence was not designed to drive out the occupying infidels but rather to disrupt the election campaign and prevent Iraqis from determining their own fate. An early election would give voice and power to the so-called silent majority of pro-moderation Iraqis that polls show exists, before continued occupation erodes more of their moderation. That may be too clever, but its direction seems to me to be the right one. We need above all Shiite leadership to navigate a way past al Sadr to power. Sistani now has many cards and it does not hurt the coalition to defer to him. In fact, deferring to such leaders while reinforcing civil order is exactly what our strategy must be. We must remember that our goal is to give Iraq back to the Iraqis. If that means lowering our standards - and I do not mean as low as al Sadr - then lower them. BUSHS RESPONSIBILITY: Its worth saying here what we now know the president got wrong - badly wrong. The war-plan might have been brilliant, but the post-war plan has obviously been a failure. The president has no excuses for not adjusting more quickly to this fact: he was told beforehand;
And yes, Iraq was slowly imploding under Saddam and some version of what we are now witnessing was inevitable - and, without the war, it would have happened without our stabilizing presence. Yes, balancing keeping order and winning hearts and minds is not an easy operation to pull off. But with the troop levels we maintained - especially given the limited international support - we made things far harder than they might have been, and our beleaguered troops are dealing with the aftermath. But the president is in part responsible for making it even harder than it might have been. THE KIND OF LEADER WE NEED: Check out this interview with Wale Al-Rukadi, vice-secretary general of theCouncil of Iraqi Tribes. ANTI-SEMITISM WATCH: David Bernstein notices an ugly, but typical, statement in Iraq. EMAIL OF THE DAY: With respect to the Lords Gym, a reader suggested something else: Proposed design for Lord Gyms restrooms: LORDs JOHN Personal evacuation in a Christian setting.
In general, it is his observation that the US Army has become woefully overstretched in Iraq, Afghanistan, and with our other worldwide commitments US Armys troop strength is 40 of what it was 12 years ago. Although I do not agree with his pessimism, I do think he makes a credible argument for why our efforts to rationalize and democratize Iraq are likely to fail. First, there is no tradition whatsoever in Iraq for the rule of law or at least none sense the time of Hammurabi. Second, Iraq is a state comprised, like Yugoslavia, of many disparate and often vengeful minded nations and tribes. Third, the whole society, despite its modern technological trappings, is still essentially organized around the tribal unit, which makes the development of a pluralistic and rational society extremely difficult. Although I have a much more optimistic view on this subject at least in the longterm of the next two decades, assuming the US stays the course, I found his comments to be very sobering. His most pessimistic views were reserved for the future of the US military, especially the Army and the reserve forces. The Armys longterm morale appears to be at severe risk due to its being so overstretched. Re-enlistments by the very backbone of the Army senior NCOs and Officers are going to start dropping like a rock unless the situation changes in the estimation of my brother. This is doubly the case with the Reservists, upon whom the military has become so dependent. In addition, our military personnel are terribly underpaid given the missions that they are called upon to fulfill during this wartime era. Many military families live at near subsistence level incomes, are required to make huge sacrifices in terms of risk to loved ones and constantly having to move, and struggle to make ends meet. The harshest of his criticisms were reserved for Rumsfeld who obdurately and stubbornly has refused to even give any hearing to these concerns by the military. I got the impression that Rumsfeld is largely loathed by the brass and the rank and file in the Army, and probably in the other services as well.
As each attack brings about American attempts to restore order, so they then characterise it as American brutality. As each piece of chaos menaces the very path toward peace and democracy along which most Iraqis want to travel, they use it to try to make the coalition lose heart, and bring about the retreat that is the fanatics victory. They know their victory would do far more than defeat America or Britain. The truth is, faced with this struggle, on which our own fate hangs, a significant part of Western opinion is sitting back, if not half-hoping we fail, certainly replete with schadenfreude at the difficulty we find. Look, I do not blame those who claim they opposed the war and so feel ...
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