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| 7/10 |
| 2004/2/18 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:12293 Activity:very high |
2/17 So this is the end of Kerry since the primary reason people were
voting for him was his 'ability to beat Bush'. Here's the link:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm
The nation is finally coming to it's senses. Putting up a dog like
Kerry for such a lame reason made no more sense than the (R) putting
up Dole in 96 "because it was his turn". Voters don't give a man "his
turn" anymore than they will accept a man because he's has nothing more
going for him than a claimed ability to beat the opposition. In fact,
since that is Kerry's only claim to the nomination it seems to me that
he actually has no claim at all. In the end people vote for a man and
what he stands for. Since Kerry stands for nothing but himself he
would have gotten killed in November. It's better this way. By the
convention it'll be Edwards and then there will be two competing men
and their different philosophies to choose from, not the lesser of
evils as usual. This is going to be the best election since the first
Kennedy/Nixon election.
\_ At last, the Voice of Reason speaks. Look, genius: just a few
weeks ago, all the professional pundits were convinced that Dean
was an all but unstopable frontrunner, with Clark as a close runner
up. Guess what? They had zero ability to predict the future
or the will of the voters. Not because they're all idiots,
although many of them are, but because it's basically a next
to impossible task. Zogby's personal prediction at this point
is that no matter what happens, it's going to be very close, and
damn near impossible to predict, and I sure believe him more than
some random motd pundit. After all, he actually predicts things
for a living, rather than getting some group of partisain
fans all worked up, as most pundits do for their paycheck (
except for those who write code for a living.)
\_ Actually, the media tanked the Dean nomination after the
allegedly hyper speech after the loss in Iowa. The liberals
in the media want to win, and a liberal that is not ashamed
to talk like a liberal always loses in a landslide. Dean
gave them an opening to start bad-mouthing him, and they took it.
In the same way that the Bush talking point of "Gravitas"
made it's way through all television media in a day, so it
was with tanking dean.
\_ Also putting an (R) in front of a tax and spend liberal social
and fiscal like Arnold doesn't make him a Republican either.
I wish the Republican party did not sell out McClintock
in order to secure a "win" with a man totally opposed to every
Republican ideal. Congratulations to the Democratic party for
winning the recall election.
\_ Your own Rasmussen report seems to think otherwise:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Democratic%20Nomination%20Analysis.htm |
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| www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm Tuesday April 13, 2004-Once again, the race for the White House is tied. In the latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll, President George W. The Presidents Job Approval is at 51 As you would expect, the President leads among men, but trails among women. Bush also lead among white voters, but trails among minority voters. Eighty-three percent 83 of Bush voters say they are certain they will vote for him. Later this week, Rasmussen Reports will release state polling data, including a look at the Presidential race in Florida and the new dynamics of the Senate race in Colorado. Tomorrow we release updated ratings for the Presidents handling of the economy and the situation in Iraq . The Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern. Just 26 of American voters believe the terrorists are winning , down from 30 last week. A reduction in pessimism may also be the best way to describe recent gains in the nations economic confidence. Forty-three percent 43 of Americans now believe the recession is over . Thats up from 37 before the report of strong job creation in March. Sign up for our free Weekly Update Real Clear Politics offers a nice commentary on how to deal with the avalanche of polling data coming your way in 2004. More than anything else, they suggest focusing on the Presidents Job Approval rating. Heres part of their analysis: As a crude measuring stick for the state of the presidential race, an over 50 job approval for the President should translate into a Bush victory. A 45 - 49 job approval will mean a close race, but I would give President Bush the advantage. Our most recent statewide poll finds Kerry leading Bush 50 to 44 in Washington . That result is almost identical to Al Gores margin of victory in that state four years ago. Rasmussen Reports data also shows Bush leading in Missouri , Kerry leading in Iowa , and a toss-up in Minnesota . Other recent Rasmussen Reports state polling shows Kerry leading Bush by 4 points in both Michigan and Ohio while the candidates are essentially tied in Pennsylvania . The national telephone survey of 1,500 Likely voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports over the past three nights. Margin of sampling error is /- 3 percentage points with a 95 level of confidence. |
| www.rasmussenreports.com/Democratic%20Nomination%20Analysis.htm February 6, 2004--Less than two months ago, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry fell behind the Reverend Al Sharpton in polls among Democrats nationally. The former front-runner's campaign was pronounced dead by most pundits and there was plenty of chuckling at how "poorly" he handled the shake-up of his campaign staff. The first question can be answered with a sports analogy that the Senator from Massachusetts no doubt remembers. In 1978, the Boston Red Sox had a seemingly insurmountable lead over the despised New York Yankees. In mid-August, the Yankees trailed Boston by 14 games, fired their manager, and seemed lost. Bucky Dent hit a famous home run and the Yankees went on to win another World Series. It is still possible for Kerry to suffer the fate of the 1978 Red Sox. However, it's worth remembering that a collapse of that magnitude has happened just once in more than 100 years of major league baseball. Those odds seem about right for the Democratic nomination process. Barring some stunning revelations about the Senator, there is probably a 1-in-100 chance for anybody else to win the nomination at this time. How did the struggling candidate of December take command of the race in January? At the beginning of 2004, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean was the man to beat. The other Democrats competed to become the last alternative to Dean in the race. Strategies designed by rivals to work against Dean would not work against Kerry. Using another sports analogy, it was as if a football team spent months preparing to play against an untested opponent with a high-powered passing offense that could be terribly exciting but also make a few mistakes. Then, at the last minute, they found out they had to play someone else. The new opponent had a rather boring, but very effective, ground game and avoided making further mistakes. For retired General Wesley Clark, this problem was evident in Oklahoma. He correctly assumed that, as a general, his record would stand up well against Howard Dean in that military-friendly state (and other places). However, when John Kerry entered the game, Clark's edge disappeared because Kerry was a legitimate war hero. Dean had shown himself out of step with Southern voters on a number of cultural and religious fronts. He was particularly clumsy talking about his faith and issues like gay marriage. Edward was likely to defeat Dean in a number of Southern States and could have plausibly presented himself as the most electable Democrat. Kerry was far less offensive to Democratic voters in the South. In fact, exit polls from last Tuesday show that even Democrats who consider themselves somewhat conservative were comfortable with the Senator from Massachusetts. On top of that, polls from Rasmussen Reports and other firms showed Kerry leading President Bush before last Tuesday's contests. This meant the issue of electability became a plus for Kerry, not Edwards. What this suggests is that the best thing that happened to John Kerry was losing his front-runner status last year. Had he remained the front-runner, his opponents would have developed an entirely different set of strategies that might have produced an entirely different outcome. Whether this will produce the final results that Democrats are hoping for remains to be seen. But, it should serve as a reminder to all that Election 2004 is likely to have a number of surprising twists and turns. |