2/16    You can call the end of cheap oil "tin foil hat" hysterics, but even
        according to documents from ExxonMobil it's true:
        http://csua.org/u/60q
        (see page 4)
        lower 48 state oil discovery peaked in 1930
        lower 48 state oil production peaked in 1970 (note 40 year gap)
        world oil discovery peaked in 1964
        It is now 40 years since 1964
        It is not the end of oil ... it is the end of *cheap* oil upon which
        our entire way of life depends.  Is this so wacky?
        \_ this is baloney. the world now has more known reserves than before.
           the largest amount in saudi arabia. also extraction technology has
           improved so yield are higher. YMWTS:
           http://home.lbl.gov:8080/~psb/BLOG/OnOil-psb.txt --psb
           \_ Phew! Some handwaving from psb!  With no facts, charts, etc., to
              back it up!  I can go to sleep tonight now!  He's "pretty sure"
              there are more known reserves!
                    \- by volume there certainly are more known reserves now
                       than ever before. i am not sure whether what this
                       volume means in time terms, i.e. flow or consumption,
                       volume means in terms time, i.e. flow or consumption,
                       it depends on how they do the projection. i was being
                       is at a all time peak or not ... and if so, obviously
                       it depends on how the do the projection. i was being
                       honest and candid. the "other side" usually is not.
                       e.g. see the hatchet job down on the "skeptical
                       environmentalist". there are several reference so
                       more authoritative sources in that mail. see e.g.
                       "power to the people" for the most recent ref.
                       i'm sorry if i disappointed you if you were expecting
                       a 4 color chart. --psb
              \_ Read "The Skeptical Environmentalist" -- the author points out
                 a bet someone made (in 1990 IIRC) that in a decade 3 resources
                 would be cheaper and more plentiful.  Three people took him up
                 on the bet and all lost.  It turned out that *every* resource
                    \-that is the julian simon vs paul erlich bet. --psb
                 was more plentiful and cheaper (inflation adjusted) after a
                 decade.  If oil becomes more expensive to acquire, it will be
                 economical to pursue other sources of oil or more expensive
                 extraction techniques.  If all the oil disappeared overnight,
                 \- helo i am not an eco freak oil alarmist but it is fair
                    to say oil prices contain a lot of hidden subsidies and
                    these may artifically depress innovation in other energy
                    options. just like there are some pretty obvious subsidies
                    for "alternative" energy sourcest there are some really
                    obscure subsidies for oil [like the govt dredging
                    channels for oil tankers]. ok tnx. --psb
                    \_ the subsidies are for the pumpers, processors, movers,
                       and sellers.  the end user eats all of that plus some
                       high taxes on it and is still quite happy to drive
                       high use, low efficiency vehicles.  oil is still easy
                       enough to get and will be for the foreseeable future
                       but i agree with your basic point 100%.  eventually oil
                       use will be too expensive and etc as you say but not
                       yet, perhaps because my tinfoil hat has a whole or my
                       RF shielding unit is low on power.
                 it would be a problem.  But as costs rise, alternatives will
                 be viable.  No chicken-little syndrome necessary.  -emarkp
        \_ I wouldn't say "entire way of life". There are other energy
           technologies that would become more cost-effective if oil wasn't
           so dirt cheap. It will lead to changes but massive global
           catastrophe is tinfoil hat territory. Although that could happen
           regardless.
        \_ Yes, it is wacky because the technology required to get to the
           deeper reserves continues to advance.  We can relatively easily
           reach oil reserves today that we couldn't even have found in 64.
           They were saying the same shit all through the 70's.  We were
           supposed to be out by 1980, then it was 1990, then it was 2000 for
           sure, now it's...?  Wake me up when we run out if I haven't died of
           old age by then.
           \_ Please pay attention ... We are NOT running out.  Production will
           \_ 3x as much?  Bullshit.  That would mean we're running off oil
              found decades ago and we should have run out in the 70s, or was
              it the 80s, no wait, they really meant the 90s, oh damn, uhm,
              let me check with my personal numerologist and get back to you!
           simply slowly decrease after the peak.  We are using 3 times as much
           oil as we discover each year ... So that can't last.