www.anesi.com/accdeath.htm
If youre like most people, you are more afraid of an airplane crash or gun accident than an auto accident, or accidental fall. In fact, auto accidents and falls kill 25 times more people in the United States each year than airplane crashes and firearms accidents. Indeed, accidental drowning alone kills far more people than airplane crashes and firearms accidents combined. So, why do people people grossly overestimate the danger of trivial risks, while ignoring the danger of greater ones? Airplane crashes are far more dramatic than auto accidents, and remain more accessible in a persons memory. Similarly, an accidental gun death, especially if a child is involved, is far more dramatic than a falling, choking, or drowning death - and so also remains more accessible in a persons memory. This problem is compounded by the news media, which 1 perseverates over dramatic events, regardless of how inconsequential they may be to the reader or viewer, and 2 never puts anything in perspective. The net result of all this is that public policy is distracted in bizarre and useless directions. Instead of cautioning Americans to watch their weight, quit smoking, wear seatbelts and life jackets, and take care when using ladders, we have endless grandstanding over safety measures like trigger locks on handguns, radon amelioration, and photocells on garage door openers. These are nice ideas, but require much effort and expense for trivial results. Better to spend the effort where it will have a detectable effect. Solutions: Journalists should: Understand risks, costs, and benefits. News organization should offer a mini course a few days in probability theory and statistics, and require that all employees take it and pass. When speaking of airplane crashes and firearms accidents, it might help the reader/listener/viewer to note that his odds of being killed in such a way are extremely remote. Insist that anyone presenting statistical data identifies, specifically, the source thereof. If he cannot do so, either disregard the data, or report it as is, noting that it is probably unreliable. Insist that anyone suggesting a safety measure gives a reliable estimate of the total cost of the measure including indirect costs, and a reliable estimate of value of the benefits to be achieved thereby. Spending a billion dollars to save one life per year is not economically sustainable. Scrutinize closely information provided by government officials who often just want more money for their own departments, Consumer groups, and Industry groups, all of whom have axes to grind. Disregard completely any information offered by product liability attorneys, including information from organizations employed by them. All Citizens of the United States should: Understand risks, costs, and benefits. Not permit elected representatives to distract the public by concentrating attention on bizarre and trivial risks, while disregarding truly important matters. References Statistical Abstract of the United States at the United States Bureau of the Census web site. For more information on irrational thinking and how to avoid it, consult the works of John Paulos mathematician, Garrett Hardin physical scientist, and Stuart Sutherland psychologist.
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