10/29   How are spreads created? I'm bored at work and want to create a
        free market (with spreads if possible) for betting on random
        events at work, like "How much longer before Sue and Jack break up?"
        and "4 to 1 odds that the Christmas party will be cancelled?"
        Ya, it's entirely stupid, and the idea is not original (the movie
        40 days and 40 nights had the same sort of thing),
        but like I said, I'm bored.
        \_ Unless you're intimately knowledgeble about people's betting
           habits and personal lives, forget it. Instead, run a pool. Payoffs
           depend on how much people put into it. There is no chance of you
           losing money (unless you bet) and you can be a lot less accurate
           about the outcome, since it doesn't really matter who wins.
        \_ You're looking for odds, not spreads:
           http://csua.org/u/4u6
           That said, you're talking about setting quantifiable odds for
           qualitative results, and that's a mug's game.  If you're really
           bored, establish a trash-can free-throw game, watch the other
           players practice, and set your odds based on their hit-miss ratio.
        \_ Ever look at http://tradesports.com ?  The way they do it is make a
           'contract' that pays $1 if an event happens or $0 if it doesn't.
           A player Andy can sell a contract to Bob for, say $0.30.  If the
           event doesn't happen, Andy keeps his $0.30.  If it happens, Andy has
           to pay Bob $1 (but keeps the $0.30 he got for selling the contract)
           Anyone can buy and sell contracts as they please and the prices move
           The spread occurs whenever there are no buyers at the price the
           sellers are willing to accept.
        \_ odds are different, but casinos and sports books adjust lines
           so that they'll get pretty close to an even amount bet on both
           sides.
           \_ How exactly does that work? If I set the spread for the Lakers
              game at 7.5 points and everyone is betting on the Lakers, can I
              change the spread to 11.5 and void the previous bets?
              \_ No, the previous bets still stand, but now you get more bets
                 against the Lakers
              \_ as above.  Once you increase the spread(assuming Lakers are
                 favored), you'd get fewer bets on the Lakers and more against.
                 Thus, they adjust until they get even amounts of bets on both
                 sides, and the net payout approx. = net gain, regardless of
                 outcome.  That's why you see lines adjusting as events get
                 closer.
                 Thus, Vegas lines are not a probability of winning, they're
                 a snapshot of what the betting community thinks the prob.
                 of winning are.
                 \_ Perhaps less obviously, all probabilities are a snapshot
                    of someone's belief of what the probability of something
                    is.  -- card-carrying bayesian
        \_ There was an article recently in the SmartMoney magazine about a
           professional sports better.  Besides doing lots of research, he
           would have several people working for him placing bets all at the
           same time such that the spread doesn't move against him.
        \_ hey good way to get fired.  what company is this?  where do i send
           my resume to get your job when you're gone?