slate.msn.com/id/2089641
By Steven Waldman I heard about this guy who called himself evangelical, said he lived a Bible-centered life, had a personal relationship with Jesus Christ and voted for Al Gore over George W. Actually, in 2000, at least 10 million white evangelical Christians voted for Gore. Many people, especially secular liberals, misunderstand the nature of religion in politicswhich is, to be fair, ever shifting. To them, if its not about Jerry Falwell or Joe Lieberman, its kind of a blur. So, just in time for another religion-packed election, here is a guide to sorting through some common myths about God and American politics: Continue Article Myth 1: Evangelicals all vote Republican. Fundamentalists are very conservative and almost entirely Republican because they view the deterioration of traditional morality as the primary public policy crisis. But fundamentalists are a subset of evangelicals, which is a more diverse group. John Green, a professor at the University of Akron and the foremost scholar of evangelical voting behavior , spliced and diced data some time ago and managed to delineate a group of moderate evangelicals. I like to call them freestyle evangelicals because they are socially more liberal they dont vote strictly for pro-life candidates, for example and politically in play. This group went for Bill Clinton 55 percent to 45 percent over Dole in 1996 and 55 percent to 45 percent for W.
Turnout among the members of the religious right thats the goofy way pollsters make people self-identify was 56 percent, says Green, only slightly higher than the national averageand actually lower than that of devout Catholics, mainline Protestants, and Jews. The religious right gets a lot of attention because a to liberals, they are verrrrrrry scarrrrrry and b their turnout has been on the rise in the past few decades. But Bushs political folks view this as a huge target of opportunity. They were able to increase turnout among religious conservatives in the 2002 congressional elections through aggressive get-out-the-vote efforts. The 2004 election may turn in part on whether religious Christians behave more like they did in 2000 or 2002. Myth 3: Bushs religion talk has appealed to his base but has alienated moderate swing voters. Actually, 56 percent of independents think he mentions his religious faith just the right amount compared to 20 percent who say he does it too much, according to a Pew Religion Forum study .
Myth 4: In this era, no candidate would lose votes just based on his or her religion. The same Pew study tried to assess which religions carried the most electoral baggage. When they asked people if they would be less likely to vote for someone because of religion, the big losers were not Jews or Catholics. Rather, the groups with the most political baggage were atheists, evangelicals, and Muslims. Interestingly, many even atheists didnt like the idea of voting for an atheist. We have become a much more tolerant country, but that doesnt mean we dont hold religious biases. Defining extremist as someone on the far end of the religious spectrum, it is true that most fundamentalists are Republican.
According to one study 60 percent of first-time white delegates to the 1992 Democratic convention claimed no attachment to religion. The perception of Hispanics as conservative is misshapen by the political behavior of Floridas Cubans, who are indeed overwhelmingly Republican. But on the question of gay marriage, for instance, Hispanics were at the national average 54 percent opposed. Professor Green has found a big difference between Hispanic Catholics and Hispanic Protestants, with the latter group more conservative than the former. Professors Louis Bolce and Gerald De Maio put voters into three groups according to religious intensitytraditionalists, moderates, and secularists. Only 10 percent of Hispanics turned out to be traditionaliststhis fraction in the African-American community was much larger. So, Republicans shouldnt assume that issues like abortion will lure large numbers of Hispanic Catholics. John Kennedy beat Nixon among Catholics by 54 percentage points, and Hubert Humphrey beat Nixon by 26 points;
Clinton won them by 20 points in 1996, but Gore did by only 6 points. While its true that many Catholics are pro-life and dislike the Democrats position on abortion, they tend also to be more interested in social issues, such as health care, and may be influenced by opposition to the Iraq war expressed by the pope and the bishops. For Bush, then, its important that he still tout compassionate conservatism, not so much to appeal to conservative evangelicals as to appeal to swing Catholics. Republicans are also attempting to lure Jews, who are one of the few groups that vote against their own socio-demographic class. Based on their income and education levels, Jews ought to be voting Republican, and the GOP sees their strong support of Israel and the Iraq war as a way to make inroads. So far Republicans have been far more sophisticated at understanding religious voting patterns than Democrats have. I suspect its because religion gives the willies to a lot of secular liberals, who just happen to be the folks who run political campaigns and cover them for the media. Perhaps the biggest religion question of the 2004 campaign will be whether the Democratic nominee can talk about his faith without gagging.
|
http://csua.com/feed/