10/4    Interesting research regarding world petroleum supplies
        http://news.independent.co.uk/world/environment/story.jsp?story=449053
        Whoever comes up with the best viable alternative to fossil fuels
        is going to be a gazillionaire, though I'm really curious (and a little
        wary) of what the "end of oil" might do to capitalism in general.
        \_ I'll read your link later but you understand various 'experts' have
           been predicting the "end of oil in the next 10 years" for at least
           30 years now, right?  As oil becomes harder to find and get out of
           the ground, it becomes more expensive and more money will be put
           into developing and subsidising other sources of energy (which *all*
           have their own problems) and life will go on.
           \_ Maybe you should read the link before you say anything - its about
              new estimates of the oil supply being far smaller than thought.
              If the oil starts running out in 2010, as they predict, the
              economic effects could be catastrophic.
              \_ That's what I'm saying.  "Experts" have been saying exactly
                 that since the early 70's.  What's so different about this
                 set of experts?  Anyway, what I said still stands: if oil
                 starts getting harder to pump in 2010, other energy sources
                 will look more viable, tech advances and government subsidies
                 will lower rates to economically viable ranges for the
                 consumer and businesses and we'll go on.  It doesn't matter
                 what kind of power plant provides energy for your wall socket
                 and hardly matters what powers your car.  Changing cars to
                 another fuel source will be the hardest part but it's not
                 impossible or even close.  Anyway, we'll just be swapping the
                 problems oil causes for other problems from the replacement
                 energy source.
                \_ I don't think we'll need to pave a sun-rich country
                   to prove worldwide dominance
                   \_ No, you'd just poison the rest of the planet with toxic
                      sludge to produce all those solar panels.  *EVERY* source
                      of energy we currently have has problems.  Solar isn't
                      some magical clean source of free power.
        \_ Yes, they predicted that oil production would peak in 2010.
           Turned out that it peaked in like 2001 and has been going down
           since.  Maybe it's just a local maxima, but add to that the new
           since.  Maybe it's just a local minima, but add to that the new
           demand from China where people are starting to buy cars, and I
           am going to invest in China/oil/gas related stocks like IVAN.
           Instead of worrying about things I can't control, I am going
           to profit from it.  This is kind of like the Economist repeatedly
           predicting the burst of the tech bubble in 1998 and 1999.  They
           sucked at the timing, but eventually it did happen, and no, I
           don't think the world is ready for the oil supply drying up.  There
           sucked at the timing, but eventually it did happen, and no, I
           don't think the world is ready for it.  They will be a worldwide
           depression.
           will be a worldwide depression.
           \_ Uhhh, timing is everything moron. Everybody knew that the tech
              bubble would burst, like everyone knows that petrol supplies
              will dry up. The important question is when.
              \_ Easier said than done.  I would rather be like Warren
                 Buffet getting out of tech early even though it may
                 mean giving up gains one may attain if one can time
                 perfectly.  Perfect timing is usually luck.  Same
                 principles apply to oil.
                 \_ A. There's no such thing as "perfect timing."
                    B. Timing is something that can be learned. If
                    that wasn't the case, then all traders would
                    trade equally good/bad over time. This is not
                    the case. There are certain individuals who
                    have winning strategies. Do they always time
                    correctly? No. But they win often enough to
                    know how to play the averages effectively.
                    \_ A. In investing, I prefer the Warren Buffet /
                          Peter Lynch way.  I find myself very good
                          and its potentially severe consequences,
                          I would rather not leave it up to "traders"
                          and "timers".
                 mean giving up gains one may attain if one can time
                 perfectly.  Perfect timing is usually luck.  Same
                 principles apply to oil.
                          at "trading" with hold times averaging around
                          1-month durations, but it takes a lot of work
                          and time.
                       B. In dealing with future oil shortage
                          problems and its potentially severe
                          consequences, I would rather not leave it
                          up to "traders" and "timers".
                          and its potentially severe consequences,
                          I would rather not leave it up to "traders"
                          and "timers".