4/17 Just a thought. Say we select a small percentagle of the population
(e.g. 100000 people) with representations from all walks of life
(scientists, engineers, doctors, chefs, plumbers, nannies, ...) except
bad guys, transport them to a distant earth-like planet with abundant
natural resources, and take away all man-made objects (machines,
clothes, books, medicines, all tools, ...) How long will it take for
them to re-build a civilization when all they have is the knowledge
stored in their brains?
\_ Less than 100 years, IMO.
\_ history proves that mankind almost always self-destructs
in a large scale until the advent of nuclear weapons. Also,
more likely than not, a new disease will come out and wipe
out a large % of the population. Without the continued production
and research in diseases, those 100,000 people will be reduced
really quickly.
\_ But that hasn't happened since we learned about germs and how
diseases are actually transmitted, which these 100k would know.
\_ you underestimate the amount of resources (man + hours)
to setup a lab, which can only be done in a very stable
country with abundance of resources.
\_ All you need is soap, clean water and a good way to
dispose of human waste. But even getting that going
is pretty hard, as anyone who has been to a 3rd
world contry can attest to.
\_ try to find vaccine for H1N1 or drugs for AIDS with
100,000 people, most of which will not be doing
research or making microscopes and computers
and such. It takes just one new strand of disease
to wipe out huge populations.
\_ I would be more worried about the ancient killers:
cholera, tyhpus, typhoid ferver and dysentary. It
is possible that they 100k could be screened, but
soemthing would most likely slip through.
something would most likely slip through.
\_ I don't think they would in any reasonable amount of time. They
might get to the bronze age before they forgot everything but that
would be about it. Getting to the steam engine from scratch is
just too hard. Most of them would die off pretty quickly unless
you included lots and lots of people who were experienced hunters,
fishermen and farmers. In subsistance economies, almost everyone
has to focus on just generating enough food.
\_ as pointed it, its goign to depend alot on the availability of
natural resources. Worst case you drop them in an inhospitable
desert and they all die in a few days. How fast they advance
is going to be a huge function of how much of their time is spent
spent surviving.
\- It is also possible 100k people isnt enough genetic diversity
to avoid interbreeding -> propagating bad recessive traits.
I dunno if there are any good examples of island/isolated
populations of this size with reasonable medical care [so you're
not getting people dyning of simple infections etc]. --psb |