7/12 "Debt commission leaders paint gloomy picture"
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_governors_debt_commission
"... everything needs to be considered . including curtailing popular
tax breaks, such as the home mortgage deduction, ..."
Housing market is going to crash again?
\_ Doubt it, not with NSFW marketing tactics like this:
http://modelmayhm-6.vo.llnwd.net/d1/photos/080824/00/48b0dd6ea15cc.jpg
\_ Probably not, but don't expect it to go up for a long
time. Medicare benefits are going to have to be cut,
it will be amusing to see which party decides to
break the bad news to seniors.
\_ Everything is going to have to be cut. Let's start with the
DoD. I bet they can get by on half of what they spend now.
My sister-in-law is in the Air Force Reserve and works in a
civilian (federal) job at an Air Force Base and the waste is
appalling. One example is that when she goes on training for the
military she gets paid for that AS WELL AS drawing her
regular full-time salary. So she volunteers for reserve duty
all the time because it doubles her pay. That practice could
easily be ended and would save taxpayers a lot of money.
\_ From Business Insider:
"In the United States, the average federal worker now
earns 60% MORE than the average worker in the private
sector."
Also, did you hear about the city manager of Bell who
just resigned over his $800K annual salary? He's going to
be drawing $650K/year retirement from CalPERS.
\_ Sure, the average federal worker also has more education
than the average worker and works in a higher skill job.
What is the apples to apples comparison on salaries?
\_"One thing we do know about public sector employees in
general, if you try to guess what they should be paid
... on average they are overpaid," said John Matsusaka,
a political economist and USC professor in law,
business and politics.
\_ If Federal workers have more education and better
skills then why are they working for the government?
It is because the government pays better and is
viewed as more secure. The talented people need to go to
work in private industry to add to the tax base and not
for the government where they are a drain. My anecodotal
dealings with federal and state employees have not been
good. Sure, my bank is bad but the teller is making
peanuts compared to a government clerk and truthfully
doing a better job than the clerks in the windows of
most government offices. My sister-in-law (mentioned
above) is a good worker with a graduate degree and
some of her coworkers don't like her because she
makes them look bad. Certain items that were supposed
to be done same-day were queued up for four days when
she first started She worked off the queue and got one
of those "You're working too hard and raising
expectations" speeches from her coworker. Does that
surprise anyone who has had to deal with the IRS,
State Department (passports), Social Security etc.?
BTW, she is working for the Feds because it was the
best salary she was offered anywhere *BY FAR*, allowed
her to be paid double for her military duty (and
not get in trouble for going off all of the time
which many employers do not like), and had the best
benefit package, too. She just got a big fat raise,
too, (> 10%) for getting the department all caught up
(i.e., doing the job they should have been doing
all along). I am happy for her, but as a taxpayer I am
appalled.
\_ People at the NSA, CIA, FBI and Joint Chiefs are
highly educated, skilled, and gov employees.
\_ And yet they still lag behind their peers in
private industry. I know this because my
girlfriend's dad was in the DIA for many years and
her mom worked for NIH. Both of them are educated,
but like a lot of people in government it was more
about a paper education than a real one. The
government views a BA from Florida State with a
Master's from James Madison's night school in
Public Policy about the same as a BS from
Stanford and a Master's from MIT in Economics.
Example: the current CIO of the FDA has
a Master's Degree in Public Administration
from LSU and did undergrad at South Carolina.
This is pretty typical. Not that there aren't
people in government with degrees from
Harvard, but the typical upper level government
employee went to some directional state school
somewhere and then grad school at a place like
Santa Clara or Alcorn State or whatever. Joint
Chiefs consists of 6 people, so I don't think they
skew the mean upward. BTW, if you read the bios of
the Joint Chiefs you will find them surprisingly
undereducated in a conventional manner. (I am
sure they have extensive military training.) My
girlfriend's stepdad was career military with a
PhD in history from Yale. That was the exception
rather than the rule. He served as an advisor to
the Joint Chiefs and had connections to a lot of
the inner circle in DC. He said it is as much who
you know as what you know, which is why it is
called politics - and politics drives choices
for high level government jobs (many of which
are appointments) and also jobs for government
contractors to some extent (often worried more
about head count than actually fulfilling the
terms of the contract). I collaborate with a lot
of government employees and the military, too,
and let's just say I am not impressed by most of
them compared to our private industry and
academic partners.
\_ you know anecdotes may be interesting but
you cant really aggregate them into some
theory/general pattern. i'm sure i can
match you anecdote for anecdote ... i know
princeton english majors who worked at
investment banks and didnt know how to do
anything except dress well and schmooze.
maybe thy could calculate a simple NPV but
for anything complicated they would keep
calling my friend when he was home with the
flu [friend = berkeley EE/Business undergrad].
talking about "the govt" and "the private
sector" is ridiculous. walmart, google, the
federal reserve, the port of oakland, NIH,
dmv, el burrito restaurant, nsa ... covers
a lot of different ground. it might be worth
asking a question like "does the nsa get
second rate number theory/algebra people
compared to mit/princeton/berkeley" or
us army corps of engineers" vs "bechtel"
in civil engineering chops.
\_ Better to ask:
Why are government agencies from the TSA to
the DMV to the IRS to the SEC to UC so
incompetent and difficult to do business
with? Private business is not always
competent and pleasant to deal with, but
it's clear who gets more work done --
and cheaper. Government is full of
clerks earning $50K/year to shuffle
paper who answer to nobody.
\_ I never have any problem dealing with
government agencies, perhaps you are
just a difficult person.
\_ Government jobs are more likely to be in an
office and require computer skills that the
office and require computer skills than the
average job. Are you really this clueless?
\_ My wife just switched jobs from HUD to Citi and
almost doubled her salary. -one anecdote
\_ Did she work just as hard then as she does now?
\_ Yes, she is like that. She was a rock star
at HUD and just average at Citi though. She
left because it takes five years to get a
promotion at HUD and the pay is less.
\_ Cutting the home mortgage deduction might lead to an armed
revolution. You have a better chance of me accepting an income tax
increase than destroying the value of my home. Like Prop 13,
the mortgage deduction is sacred.
\_ Frankly, the mortage deducation is stupid, it's basically just
an indirect bank subsidy. But, yeah, I admit it would
be hard to eliminate now. What about a slow ratcheting down
over 40 years? Just rachet down the amount you can deduct a
little each year. That way the current owners can pay off their
mortgage before it affects them, and the new buyers just have to
work it into their math before buying. -R homeowner
\_ But opponents of the politicians suggesting it could scream
about ending the deduction without mentioning the fine points.
It's the impact on politics, not actual homeowners, that makes
things like the mortgage deduction and Social Security ("the
political third rail") difficult to withdraw.
\_ People don't really take up their guns for things like home
interest deductions. But they would go to the ballot box and
throw all the bums out. |
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