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2009/2/19-22 [Finance/Investment] UID:52598 Activity:low |
2/19 The Bush Decade was as bad economically as the Great Depression: http://tinyurl.com/ar9h67 \_ It's only bad if you're the middle class or lower. Wonderful for corporations and stock holders. \_ I'm a stock holder and it hasn't been that great. The NASDAQ never recovered and now the DOW is at 1990 levels. Awesome. \_ Self reliance. Blame yourself for not getting out earlier. \_ I'm not *blaming* anyone. I'm just pointing out that Bush wasn't really favorable to anyone except his oil buddies and defense contractors. The perception is that all those "fat cat stockholders" like, I dunno, just about everyone with a 401k, made out like bandits and we most decidedly did not. \_ Not that bad. More like 1997. \_ Oh, come on. \_ That's about the dumbest thing I've ever seen. The Dow is down 35% IN THE LAST 6 months, forget the last decade. |
2009/2/19-25 [Finance/Banking, Finance/Investment] UID:52599 Activity:moderate |
2/19 "There is no scenario under which you would claim the government was not involved ... -tom" \_ Apparently there is no scenario under which you would agree government policy has a hand in creating financial crises. My point isn't about getting rid of the government itself but the banking system supported by governments around the world. These crises keep happening around the world and yet people always find something to blame except the actual system. It's like building your house next to a flood zone and then blaming the rain when your house inevitably gets trashed. On the surface, you can blame banks in these crises because we always get these situations where banks create massive amounts of debt based on overvalued assets. This is natural because greed is natural. The problem is a) they are shielded from the consequences and b) the govt-sanctioned system allows them to pyramid debt upon debt in a tremendous explosion of newly created money, and a tremendous skewing of the economy's fundamentals (trade balances, capital allocation). In a conservative system (not talking GOP or Dems here) a series of failures would simply not be able to cause such deep problems. After you unwound the failures then you'd still have the same basic money supply in the economy. With the current system, you are putting an impossible regulation task onto the government. The current crisis is really an extension of problems that have been building up for decades. In the latest episode the Fed kept interest rates too low for too long. \_ Not a "conservative system", a "free market system". The free market cannot work unless there's profit AND loss. Oh, and the government shouldn't tell the companies to do something unprofitable and then blame them for it. \_ http://tinyurl.com/c83pfd (The Economist) Your lefty fellow travelers over at The Economist don't seem to agree. Financial crises are as old as capitalism. \_ That article doesn't even touch on the issue of the banking system itself. It's mostly ignored by all mainstream sources as if it must be, always has been, and always will. There's no proof that this credit expansion system is really a benefit. This isn't really a left/right issue either. The only people who talk about this kind of thing are, I guess, libertarians. \_ What are you talking about? Every macro econ class talks about money supply. Read Chapter 13 of Keynes General about money supply. Read Chapter 17 of Keynes General Theory for the first modern discussion of it, but so did Friedman, Von Mises, Krugman, all the greats. It might be true that libertarians (and their fellow travellers, the Austrians) are the only ones who seriously consider that fiat money and franctional lending are a bad idea. Do you notice that no one in the world is on the gold standard? That is because it is a crappy way to run an economy, full of booms and busts far worse than what we are experiencing today. \_ There's no evidence it's a crappy way to run an economy. The real reason is very simple. Government inflation of the currency is a hidden tax on holders of money. Govts used this repeatedly in times of war, though they usually returned to gold afterward. This is just a fact, look at the history of about every major British or US war. They inflated the currency tremendously in WWI, then tried to deflate it again afterwards which was doomed to failure. This is also orthogonal to fractional reserve banking where demand deposits are treated as bank assets, and the money supply is exponentially expanded via debt. There is no evidence this is needed or even beneficial. Most of the historical problems, if you look into it, were either a) not really crises or b) not actually a free market gold standard. The deflationary spiral problem is endemic to fractional reserve inflation, so is the risk of widespread bank failures. Banks today, in general, are not allowed to fail. We pay for their mistakes via the government bailing them out in one way or another. It's private profits socialized losses. But actually this has been the case for hundreds of years... because it wasn't nipped in the bud, it's always been too painful to undo. Govts bailed out banks many times in history. \_ You imply that having a hidden tax on holding money is a bad thing. I would argue that we don't want people hoarding money a'la Scrooge McDuck. \_ Let's see you argue it then. \_ If you are not familiar with the historical poverty of humanity and the many long periods of depression and famine before 1900, then I cannot hope to type enough words to educate you. Go read a history book or something. The explosion of human wealth since the invention of capitalism is really unprecedented. \_ Capitalism is not synonymous with central banking. There are no periods of famine and depression that can be blamed on a lack of central banking. You're also placing credit on "capitalism" when there are so many other technological advances in the same time frame. \_ What do you think that the "capital" in capitalism represents? \_ Not central banking, that's for sure. Why, what do you think it represents? Is this a joke? \_ Do you even know why we went off the gold standard? \_ So that the gov't could inflate the currency whenever they wanted. \_ It all sounds like funny money to me. \_ Is it better when completely random effects inflate the money supply? (Someone discovered gold!) Or, even worse, business as usual deflates the money supply? (Hold amount of gold constant, increase GDP, automatic deflation!) \_ You don't need a gold standard. The money-is-debt, fractional reserve thing is mostly orthogonal to having a gold standard. You could still have fiat money but make it non-debt based (i.e. just directly create X amount of money by fiat). A gold standard is a separate debate. Many arguments against it are bogus though. We left the gold standard so that the government could finance wars without worrying about taxes or voters. \_ Are you getting paid by the word? -tom \_ I should be. My day job is boring, I guess. \_ what is this quote from? \_ an earlier motd thread |
2009/2/19-25 [Computer/SW/Languages/C_Cplusplus, Academia/GradSchool] UID:52600 Activity:low |
2/19 Student Expectations Seens as Causing Grade Disputes: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/18/education/18college.html \_ "I tell my classes that if they just do what they are supposed to do and meet the standard requirements, that they will earn a C." All well and good, but the problem is that 2.0 is perceived as almost failing. Maybe once employers and grad schools realize that 3.0 is not a minimum effort but a pretty good student then students will adjust expectations accordingly. I got a B in a very difficult upper division math class and I had a recruiter tell me "You must not be very good at math." I told her I was very good and where did she get that idea. "Your report card." So as long as students have to deal with that crap then hell yeah we won't accept a C for spending 40 hours per week on a class even if it's "what we deserve" because the perception is that a C is really a D (pass for credit, but that's about it). Perhaps this is a result of grade inflation, but I don't think students spawned it. Competition did. It used to be fairly easy to get into schools like Stanford and very few students took the SAT. If 80% of the class got C's that was fine. It's not fine anymore and from what I can see from my nieces and nephews kids are working harder than ever even at young grades. My 3rd grade nephew has like 3-4 hours of homework a night. I think we have to do this to complete as this is common in places like Japan, but the older people in the system don't realize how much things have changed and have not adjusted expectations accordingly. You won't get only the top 5% of students in college anymore at most universities and the kids that are there are less motivated by learning. They need that B to be able to survive while at the same time there is a perception that C = poor student. \_ C *IS* poor. My parents used to tell me that C is for inferior native kids, B is for second generation immigrants, and A is for people like us. -hard working immigrant \_ Not with the definition professors are using: "I tell my classes that if they just do what they are supposed to do and meet the standard requirements, that they will earn a C." By the way, your parents sound like real pieces of work. \_ I agree, kids these days have no sense of perspective. They want 100 column terminals, good grades, friendly professors, &c. Back when I went to Cal everyone knew that a C- was the mean and working your butt off to get mean was standard operating procedure b/c the mean student was an asian overachiever just like you. An A was a mythical promised land reserved for future nobel prize winners - the ones who sat in the front row and could correct the mistakes of the nobel prize winner teaching the class. \_ Wasn't there a CSUA'er who took like 39 units in a semester and ended up with a 3.9+ GPA? calbear? I wonder if he's gonna win a Nobel Prize. I had a crap GPA while at Cal but knew lots of people with 3.7's who didn't study 24/7. College just seemed easier for them, like how High School was just easy for most Cal students. \_ I went to HS with calbear. He was wicked smart. Last I heard he dropped out of the PhD program at the farm. But he might still win a nobel prize though. \_ I thought he completed his Ph.D. \_ http://hkn.eecs.berkeley.edu/~calbear/resume/mr.htm \_ Guess I heard wrong. |
2009/2/19-25 [Finance/Banking] UID:52601 Activity:nil |
2/19 http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/18/let-the-human-capital-exodus-begin \_ Suppose you are a damn good executive. Someone gives you the chance to come in to a ailing firm that has a long history and some serious pluses going for it. If you manage to turn things around in a 5-10 year time frame you will be heralded as a brilliant mind and even the elite will treat you like royalty. Would you walk away from that oppertunity because you will "only" get 500k a year until things get better? If so I don't think you are the kind of person that these companies need right now. (why the fuck did you delete this?) \_ The words banking, innovation, talent, used together is nothing but an oxymoron. Give me a break. We used to think that energy derivatives was a brilliant idea. Ditto with 0% down 0% interest loan. Yeah, we made TONS of money because of 0% down 0% interest, it's such an innovative financial product! WHOOPY!!! \_ Finding new ways to use renewable energy = innovation. Finding new ways to make money by giving out unsound and unsustainable loans = innvation? Give me a fucking break. \_ I think the post above is agreeing with the three comments above. |
2009/2/19-21 [Politics/Foreign/Canada, Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:52602 Activity:nil |
2/19 http://www.ireport.com/docs/DOC-215694 Canadians to Obama. We're the friendiest and most tolerant people. |
2009/2/19-21 [Politics/Domestic/Immigration, Academia/Berkeley/CSUA/Troll/Jblack] UID:52603 Activity:nil |
2/19 Motd has been boring lately. Where is jblack's "fuck immigrants" and "self reliance" freeper drivels? |
2009/2/19-25 [Recreation/Pets] UID:52604 Activity:nil |
2/19 Mmm, puppy paws, or "Why US Fois Gras is OK". http://www.villagevoice.com/content/printVersion/894706 |
2009/2/19-25 [Politics/Domestic, Politics/Domestic/President] UID:52605 Activity:nil |
2/19 GOP congressmen who voted against stimulus now bragging to their districts about getting the money http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2009/02/behold_the_hypocrimap.php \_ They're asking for people to report examples. I don't see any so far. |
2009/2/19-21 [Health, Health/Disease/General] UID:52606 Activity:nil |
2/19 "The most dramatic (and scary) surgery we've seen" http://www.csua.org/u/nkn (shine.yahoo.com) |
2009/2/19-25 [Finance/Banking, Politics/Foreign] UID:52607 Activity:nil |
2/19 I believe in the latest edition of dictionaries, next to the definition of "batshit insane" there is a picture of Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-obviously): http://tinyurl.com/btd698 "We're Running Out Of Rich People In This Country" |