Berkeley CSUA MOTD:2008:October:03 Friday <Thursday, Saturday>
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2008/10/3-9 [Politics/Domestic/President/Reagan] UID:51360 Activity:nil
10/3    Palin blatantly misappropriates Reagan quote:
        http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/03/raising-the-white-flag-of-surrender-to-medicare
2008/10/3-7 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:51361 Activity:nil
10/3    I'm fucking sick of politicians who think truthiness beats truth.
        http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2008_10/015014.php
        \_ You could have stopped before "who"
           \_ Yes, but then it would have been a noisy snide comment instead
              of an actual expression of disgust. -!op
2008/10/3-6 [Computer/Companies/Ebay] UID:51362 Activity:low
10/3    Question about eBay. Say there are two accounts (A and B) bidding
        on one item. Starting price is $10, and A bids $50. Then B bids
        $55. The price is so high, no one else bids on the item. Then
        for some reason A retracts the bid. Does the bid go back to $10?
        \_ I don't think you can retract a bid that isn't winning the item.
           And there are lots of auctions that work like ebay does.  Google
           "dutch auction."  That pretty much works the same way.  Everyone
           says the max they are willing to pay and the high bidder gets
           the item for the next higer bidder + 1.
        \_ Why would it when there is a bid at $55?
           \_ Because eBay bidding system works differently than any
              auction known to mankind. If you bid $55 when someone else
              bids at $50, then eBay says "ok you can get the item at
              $50+($1 increment)", and you walk away with the item at $51.
              eBay bidding says "the amount you put in is the highest you're
              willing to pay, but the actual price is the second highest
              bidder plus increment."
              \_ I'd imagine this system is for cutting down site traffic by
                 bidders who would otherwise need to constantly check if they
                 have been outbid.
2008/10/3-6 [Finance/Banking, Finance/Investment] UID:51363 Activity:nil
10/3    House passes bailout by significant margin.  Guys, THINK about your
        long-term equity investments.  You'll have PLENTY of people to blame
        in the near future, but where will your money have gone?  Please
        consider the advice of a professional financial advisor, too, but
        in the end, it's YOUR MONEY.
        Practical advice:  If you're not sure, move part into safety.
        \_ Coherence isn't your strong point is it?
           \_ WHAT is your problem dude?
        \_ At 3% CD rates, subtracting taxes and inflation, you are losing
           about 2%/yr with your cash position. This is a guaranteed way
           to end up poor in your old age. Is that what you want? I have
           gone from 0->$1M in 10 years, how have you done?
           \_ Past performance is not a predictor of future results.  The
              specific reasons why have been what all my posts for the last
              two months have been about.
              I won't argue with you if you are confident in what you're doing.
              Good luck.  I sincerely hope you do well in your investments.
              \_ Good luck to you, too. I think you should spend some more
                 time thinking about how to hedge against what imho is the
                 inevitable dollar devaluation to come. Sitting in Treasuries
                 is not going to cut it.
                 \_ thanks.  fyi, that's exactly what I'm working on.
                 \_ I am buying lots of TIPS and have for a while now. If
                    the dollar falls then inflation should rise.
                    \_ This is not a bad call, but I assume you know about the
                       "upfront tax" costs of a TIP. This is not an issue in
                       a IRA.
2008/10/3-6 [Uncategorized] UID:51364 Activity:nil
10/3    I'm old and know a little French and Spanish.  How hard would it
        be for me to learn Russian?
        \_ russian is notoriously hard. you may enjoy learning "mat".
        \_ The answer really depends on your MOTIVATION. What is the
           primary reason for learning Russian? Business? Love?
           Traveling?
           \_ I think the US is going to collapse financially.  At least
              I won't freeze to death in Russia if they have all the oil
              and natural gas.
                  \- recommend you learn "mat". ok spasibo.
              \_ Russia is one of the worst escape plans I've heard of.
                 Why not just go whole hog and plan to move to Darfur?
                 \_ There are no hot Russian girls in Darfur.
                    \_ Brazil dude. If you know Spanish, Portuguese is pretty
                       easy to pick up and Rio is much nicer than Siberia.
2008/10/3-6 [Science/GlobalWarming] UID:51365 Activity:nil
10/3    "Russia to deploy new nuclear missile"
        http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081002/wl_nm/us_russia_forces
        \_ This is, paradoxically, the best news I've heard from Russia in
           a long while. Why did the USSR fail? Because it spent all of its
           money on military build-up. God, I hope this causes Putin to
           get ousted.
2008/10/3-4 [Uncategorized] UID:51366 Activity:nil
10/3    Beyonce Knowles is SO )(#*$)*#)$#(* HOT HOT HOT
2008/10/3-6 [Industry/Startup, Finance/Investment] UID:51367 Activity:nil
10/3    Stock tip 2:  Lifetime of this pump will be much more short lived
        than people might expect.  (I.e., do not go all in long, although you
        could do so if you put in some stops--but that isn't long, is it?
        times like this are where the phrase "don't try to time the market"
        originate from)
        \_ Stock tip A: VIX levels like this are only seen at the top or the
           bottom of the market. We know we are not at the top, so...
           \_ Stock tip mu: Ignore stock advice based on technical factors
              given by random hosers.
           \_ VIX is a measure of put and call options based on volume and
              difference from fair value.  Notice how shorts are prohibited
              for about a 1,000 stocks?  They're all in options now.  Stock
              tip mu guy is right--you'd be hosed if you didn't understand
              this. -op
              \_ VIX has nothing to do with "fair value" whatever that means:
                 http://preview.tinyurl.com/4exdqx
                 \_ http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fairvalue.asp
                    ok, probably the wrong term, but let's just say, "the
                    current market price of the underlying"
        \_ Lifetime of the pump after House passage was assured: 0 minutes. -op
2008/10/3-4 [Uncategorized] UID:51368 Activity:nil
10/3    WFC to buy WB:
        http://preview.tinyurl.com/4nkovj
2008/10/3-6 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:51369 Activity:nil
10/3    I would say that if anyone patronized anyone, Palin patronized Biden.
        "There you go again!"  "You washington folk don't know what it's like."
        And that sort of stuff.  Perhaps my partisanship is showing?
        \_ After the debate, I felt good. I know Obama is the winning
           ticket. I love Obama, and I'M READY FOR SOCIALISM. Fuck
           y'all capitalists. SOCIALISM NOW!!!
        \_ No, you are right, she did.  What do you expect?  When she tried
           to actually say anything of substance she showed how empty her
           understanding of the issues was so she had to go on the attack.
           \_ But 80% of the people in oh-so-white Valencia, CA thought
              she won. The rest were undecided or didn't care.
              \_ CA voters don't matter. What matters is how Palin did in
                 suburban Denver or Alexandria, VA.
        \_ Biden followed proper vp debate procedure and basically ignored
           Palin, and only attacked McCain and promoted Obama.  I don't know
           if that convinced any independent voters though.
           \_ According to polls it did.
2008/10/3-6 [Uncategorized] UID:51370 Activity:nil
10/3    Short ban to expire Wed night 11:59pm (I believe), after Dubya signed
        the bailout.  If I were a criminal, I'd let the shorts get positioned,
        and create the biggest short squeeze imaginable.
        \_ How could you manage that, unless you were Paulson or something?
           \_ or Bernanke, or Cox
2008/10/3-6 [Uncategorized] UID:51371 Activity:nil
10/3    Keep on eye on VIX:
        http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle+articleid_2397461.html
        \_ translation:  people are buying a whole lot of out-of-the-money
           options as insurance, to front-run a move, or both
2008/10/3-9 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:51372 Activity:nil
10/3    I know  why McCain doesn't ever look at Obama.  I know why McCain
        loathes Obama.     To McCain, Obama is a civee.  Obama smokes dope.
        Obama is a self absorbed smartie pants who never bled, never served.
        \_ And Thank God we have a system where we have Civilian rule, not
           military rule.
           \- then he should hate BUSH 10x [the warrior poseur] and
              CHENEYCO [chickenhawks] 100x as much.
              \_ Please don't bring reason into this.
              \_ He probably does, he is just better at hiding it.
        \_ Rolling Stone has a pretty long detailed extensive article about
           his military service.  It's also really mean.  Not sure what to
           think of it.
           http://rollingstone.com/news/story/23316912/makebelieve_maverick
           \_ I actually don't know of any conservative that reads
              Rolling Stone.
              \_ I completely agree.  The article is pretty detailed.  I had
                 no idea McCain has crashed so many planes.  The LA Times had
                 a similar article:
                 http://tinyurl.com/3jyu4c
              \_ I don't know anyone under 40 that reads Rolling Stone.
2008/10/3-6 [Consumer/Camera] UID:51373 Activity:nil
10/3    Dear photo buffs. Now that full frame FX cameras are getting into
        the low $2000 range, and possibly much lower in a few years, do you
        think DX 1.3 1.5 1.6 smaller frame DSLR cameras will be obviated
        in the future? What is your prediction?
        \_ the race for megapixel is dead. Small frame DSLR is good enough
           and it'll be around for a very long time.
        \_ I don't see full-frame as really providing much value.  Canon
           in particular is highly dedicated to APS-C frame size, and
           gets results which make going any larger seem unnecessary.  -tom
           \_ Canon chose to never go back to full frame size. Their EF-S
              lenses do not physically fit into their full frame bodies.
              On the other hand, Nikon is waivering, undecided. Their DX
              lenses all fit into FX bodies, and their FX bodies recognize
              FX and crop accordingly. Canon=Republican, Nikon=Democrats
              (their lenses and bodies all get along). Canon is firm and
              takes better pictures. Nikon is queer and their indecisiveness
              make them look like pussies.
           \- it has implcations for noise, lens design and few other things,
              just as canon's decision to change the lens mount to a larger
              diameter.
              \_ The reality is that noise is becoming less and less of an
                 issue.  Even at ISO 1600 in low light my XSi displays
                 astonishingly little noise.  Sure, there are implications for
                 lens design, but 35mm is an arbitrary size and there doesn't
                 seem to be much marginal value in pegging digital to that
                 size, particularly for Canon whose lenses are aimed at APS-C.
                 If Nikon is costing more and not producing signficantly
                 better results with 35mm sensors, the invisible hand will
                 smack them down to size.  so to speak.  -tom
                 \- look for serious photographers, there are more issues.
                    (not suggesting i'm in that category)
                    quality at 1600 is certainly better than it used to be,
                    but i still dont like it, but different things work for
                    different people, when you get to "qualitative" stuff
                    like this. on the other hand there are plenty of technical
                    difference, e.g. the DoF performance when shooting
                    portraits with a 105/2.8 on 35mm vs APC. i think you would
                    need something like a 80/2.0 for similar effect. i assume
                    the yields will improve and he total fraction of cost in
                    the sensor will come down, and the real estate will be
                    good for high end cameras. but i agree for "regular"
                    photographers [i.e. people usually not to "focused" on
                    photographers [i.e. people usually not too "focused" on
                    DoF], things like weight and cost and some features like
                    IS trump extreme quality, MTF curves and corner cases.
                    BTW, there are definitely places i've taken my <$1000
                    camera body i would not take a multi-$k body [risk of
                    damage, theft etc] ... so in once sense i was able to
                    take better pix with a lighter, cheaper camera.
2008/10/3-4 [Uncategorized] UID:51374 Activity:nil
10/3    I don't really understand why the Ted Stevens quote about the Internet
        being a series of tubes is considered so mock worthy.  It's not a bad
        metaphore.
        \_ I think a large part of it was the delivery.  It didn't sound like
           he was talking metaphorically.
2008/10/3-6 [Politics/Domestic/California] UID:51375 Activity:nil
10/3    Hypothetical moral question: if you know someone who has the
        opposite political stance as you but know that the person isn't
        sure whether he/she wants to vote, would you:
        1) encourage that person to vote because it's in the American
           spirit to vote?
        2) don't bother that person to vote because he/she will
           nullify your vote.
        Please explain your answers.
        \_ I think everyone should vote who's paying attention.  There's
           something to be said for the wisdom of democaracy, but I think
           something to be said for the wisdom of democracy, but I think
           that breaks down if the voter isn't paying attention.
        \- 1. i dont think this is a moral question typically
           2. not voting is a form of voting.
           longer answer: if you are persuaded the way you are voting is
           "moral" and the other party is not ... like say they believe
           in torturing people ... the moral act is to try to persuade them
           to do the "right thing". now in some cases it's reasonable to
           agree to disagree or the other party may reasonably have different
           interest from you. i think discussing issues matters more than
           voting. but to answer your question directly, #2. --non-voter.
        \_ Cast an additional vote on their behalf for your candidate. -rdaley
        \_ It doesn't matter. -DIEBOLD
2008/10/3-6 [Uncategorized] UID:51376 Activity:nil
10/3    Wow, Cramer is telling people to sell any pop wtf
        \_ Sounds like good advice.
        \_ What's pop?
           \_ significant increase in stock price
        \_ Cramer is the perfect contra-indicator.
        \_ oh, nevermind, apparently he's been doing it for a couple weeks -op
2008/10/3-6 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:51377 Activity:nil
10/3    McCain knows Latin America... biblically
        http://www.miamiherald.com/americas_conference/story/711991.html
2008/10/3-9 [Science/GlobalWarming] UID:51378 Activity:nil
10/3    Wind changes, not global warming are cause of Greenland and West
        Antarctic ice sheet losses
        (Blog referencing two new articles in Science)
        http://tinyurl.com/4cs4fq
        \_ If you actually looked at the articles you'd see they are blaming
           the wind changes ON GLOBAL WARMING.  Look this isn't hard.  The
           environment is a chaotic system that settled into a local minmum.
           That's rarely stable.  All it takes is a little push and things
           go haywire.  Global warming is that push.
2008/10/3-6 [Consumer/Camera, Computer/HW/Printer] UID:51379 Activity:low
10/3    Hey tom, can you tell us why Canon is better than Nikon? I'm
        shopping and can't decide.
        \_ I think Canon and Nikon are comparable.  -tom
           \_ #f spec for spec, price-value-wise, lense selection,
              Canon beats Nikon hands down.
              \- if you dont have an investment in nikon, buy canon.
                 if price truly is not object, then there might be
                 some debatable issues depending on what you want.
                 but actually what you should do is fix you budget,
                 which will determine a small range of bodies and
                 you should them compare specific models not brands.
                 especially if you are in the $1k - $1.5k range ...
                 if you are never going to be looking at +$1k lenses,
                 who cares about those. --nikon owner
                 \_ You can rent lenses easily at pro shops. Even pros do
                    it all the time.
                 \_ Another reason might be that you have very specific needs
                    on lenses.  I imagine you can use the 1972 Nikkor 6mm f/2.8
                    fisheye (angle of view = 220 degrees -- seeing behind
                    itself!) or the 1990 Nikkor 1200-1700mm f/5.6-8 (not a
                    reflex) on a Nikon D body in manual mode.  But other than
                    that, I heard that Canon usually gives a better bang for
                    the buck.  -- owner of Nikon FM2n, N70, D80.
                    \- yes, that is why i wrote "if you dont have an investment
                       in nikon". and renting is not a reasonable option if
                       you are travelling for a month ... and those are the
                       pix i really care about. i still like the "feel" of
                       nikons more than canon, but it comes at a high price
                       and isnt directly contributing to the quality of the
                       results. when you get down to comparing specific models,
                       sometimes user inerface matters more than trivial diffs
                       in quantitiative stats. e.g.  it is really annoying
                       when some setting you change a lot is on a two deep
                       menu rather than on a dedicated dial ... i would gladly
                       trade some megapixels for that interface change.
                       --http://home.lbl.gov:8080/~psb/PSB_MISC/PSB_N1-fb.jpg
                       \_ UI is very subjective. Hey what kind of lenses
                          have you invested in? Do you have a bunch of
                          EF-S/DX lenses that'll get obsolete in 5 years?
                       \_ wedding photographers rent equipments all the time
                          \- the economics of photography change dramatically
                             if you can justify it as a business expence.
2017/09/23 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
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Berkeley CSUA MOTD:2008:October:03 Friday <Thursday, Saturday>