| WIKI | FAQ | Tech FAQ | |
 http://csua.com/feed/ | |
| ||||||
| 2008/9/14-19 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:51158 Activity:nil |
9/13 McCain's campaign continues to be at war with the truth.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=a1J0tfV3XJYs |
| 2008/9/14-19 [Recreation/Humor] UID:51159 Activity:nil |
9/13 To guy who thinks xkcd is actually funny: have you checked out
http://shreddedmoose.com? I take it all back. Compared to http://shreddedmoose.com,
xkcd is fucking brilliant. --hates xcd guy
\_ Compared to http://sheddedmose.com a hernia is fucking brilliant.
-thinks xkcd is meh mixed with rare but worthwhile funny guy |
| 2008/9/14-19 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:51160 Activity:nil |
9/13 Yup, no racism in this election AT ALL!
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hNafTsdlgbSZ8YMoFRDSgrVlEwGwD936205O0
\_ You are the racist one, for even pointing this out. I am sure it
is all a harmless joke.
\_ You're joking or trolling? right? Please tell me you're joking.
I'm the racist one? Huh? Are you familiar with "little black
sambo?" |
| 2008/9/14-19 [Uncategorized] UID:51161 Activity:nil |
9/13 http://www.isbarackobamamuslin.com http://www.isbarackobamamuslim.com |
| 2008/9/14-19 [Uncategorized] UID:51162 Activity:nil |
9/13 Is there anything McCain actually beleives in beyond getting
elected?
http://www.armytimes.com/news/2008/09/defense_mccain_FCS_091208 |
| 2008/9/14-23 [Health/Disease/General, Health/Women] UID:51163 Activity:moderate |
9/14 bumped so this guy can see:
\_ I hope you are not still sitting out the month the
market goes up 20%, which it inevitably will, sooner
or later. How are you going to decide to jump back in?
\_ when the 50DMA increases past the 200DMA by 1% for
a major index
\_ Define "major index."
\_ DJIA. Come on. Hello? I'm not trying to
"trick" you here.
\_ Okay, then post on the motd when you decide
to get back in. I am kind of curious as to
how your attempt at market timing works out.
\_ all right. keep in mind that I will
likely put in 50-80% of my savings in,
with 20-50% in CDs/bonds and "my favorite
stocks"
for the last 9-12 months, I have been 80%
in CDs/bonds, and 20% in "my favorite
shorts" (with appropriate stops)
\_ There is a *huge* difference between
being 20% cash and being 50% cash.
\_ You're an idiot. I bet you predicted 10 of the last 3 recessions.
I'm still in equities and I will be in equities 30 years from
now. Have fun trading in and out. There's even a chance you
will beat my return, but don't attribute it to skill.
\_ bring up any major index in http://finance.yahoo.com. use the
Interactive Chart. Draw the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA lines.
go in at when the 50 crosses the 200 at +1%. go out when the
go in when the 50 crosses the 200 at +1%. go out when the
50 crosses the 200 at -1%. now tell me who's the idiot.
well, just emotional, but that's a normal reaction.
well, just emotional, but that's a normal reaction. people tell
their relatives this shit and they tell them to go jump in a
lake. like i posted originally, it's your money, so do with it
lake. like i posted earlier, it's your money, so do with it
what you will.
\_ technical factors like those are not predictive.
\_ have you done the exercise yet? please do so, and don't
respond right away. wait a week. run this on more
indices. don't think about this in terms of who wins the
argument. if you still don't wanna do it--that's fine,
but now you know what people like me are doing.
\_ Run what exercise? Look at the past and expect it to
predict the future? Here's a hint: The more people
try to chase the past behavior of the market, the
less it will behave like it used to. This is exactly
the lesson of the hedge funds. -tom
\_ "bring up any major index ...". Do it.
think about it. wait a week. ask your respected
peers. ask them to do it too.
the lesson on the hedge funds is that if you lever
up 30:1 it can bite you in the ass, especially if
you chase yield.
btw, I don't disagree with you on your point about
"the more people try to chase past behavior the less
it behaves like it used to". in fact, this thought
is foremost of my concerns.
it behaves like it used to".
\_ The hedge funds wound up leveraging up because the
return on their strategy fell from .5% to less
than .2% in just a few years. Individuals trying
to identify technical criteria for investing
are basically like the guy who has a system to
win in Vegas. -tom
\_ 80% of technical analysis is crap. have you
performed the exercise yet? anyways, it's
your money. ^Vegas^poker.
performed the exercise yet? please do
consider this for a week. you can check out
performance every 6 months. it seems like
we're not going to settle this now, anyway.
\_ This would have nicely dodged the last two
downturns, but look at 1987-1992 for a
period where this strategy leaves you
trailing a buy and hold investor by quite
a bit.
\_ for more detail on what tom is talking about, look up David Swensen
or John Bogle.
\_ works very well in a bull market, and much, much better than
"letting J6P have at it with the market" -op
\_ When will be the peak tomorrow?
\_ Today was +3.86% in DJIA. Expect up to +4%, then look for
resistance on upward movement. Largest volume occurs in the last
[see thread]
\_ DJIA is now +3.34% and shows upward resistance.
for example, today I would move ~16% of my final desired
for example, now I would move ~16% of my final desired
safety portion of my portfolio out of stocks.
Certainly there is a chance it can go higher, but if it rises
to +4.0% I would drop off another ~16%; or if I were rally
to +4.0% I would move another ~16%; or if I were really
sophisticated I would set some EOD limit orders on this +4.0%
and sell earlier on some new 1-day top with upward
and sell earlier on some new 1-day local maximum with upward
resistance. as always, please consult a professional
financial advisor. -op
\_ summary: you should already have been out 33% as of the
drop past +4.0%. -op |
| 2008/9/14-19 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:51164 Activity:nil |
9/14 The Obama and McCain tax plans, in a nifty chart:
http://preview.tinyurl.com/5s4l7j (Washington Post)
\_ Per this article, per O's plan, I would be getting something like
$1k tax cut, and everyone less well off than me would
be getting a larger % tax cut. Under McCain's plan, everyone
BETTER off then me would be getting a larger % cut. |
| 2008/9/14-19 [Politics/Domestic/President/Reagan] UID:51165 Activity:nil |
9/14 LEH bailout fails; to file for bankruptcy tonight.
MER bought by BAC (firewall).
Central bank liquidity fund coming online.
Guys: Multi-year global credit deleveraging. Nasty shit.
It's your money though, so do with it what you will.
\_ "But great as our tax burden is, it has not kept pace with public
spending. For decades we have piled deficit upon deficit,
mortgaging our future and our children's future for the temporary
convenience of the present. To continue this long trend is to
guarantee tremendous social, cultural, political, and economic
upheavals." -Ronald Reagan
\_ "Deficits don't matter. Reagan proved that." -Dick Cheney |
| 2008/9/14-19 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:51166 Activity:nil |
9/13 I just heard Palin on the radio in ANOTHER speech where she claims
she was against the Alaskan earmarks. SHE SAID "THANKS. BUT NO
THANKS." AGAIN. I wish she'd cut it out. I'm not going to fault her
too much for taking the money, just lying about it, and sounding
annoying while lying about it. Has any governor in the history of
this universe ever refused federal money? I bet they haven't in
the last 100 years.
\_ OH YEAH? Well, that's just like, your opinion, man. |
| 2008/9/14-19 [Politics/Foreign/MiddleEast/Israel, Politics/Foreign/Europe] UID:51167 Activity:low |
9/14 Good-bye, Britain:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/crime/article4749183.ece
ISLAMIC law has been officially adopted in Britain, with sharia courts
given powers to rule on Muslim civil cases.
\_ Just like how the Jewish courts run there too? At least they
stooped so low as to have non-judges presid and make judgements for
kangaroo courts broadcast on television like here.
\_ Ummm... TV courts aren't leagally binding beyond the contract
you sign when you go on. That's a huge difference. -!pp
\_ "Under the act, the sharia courts are classified as
arbitration tribunals. The rulings of arbitration tribunals
are binding in law, provided that both parties in the dispute
agree to give it the power to rule on their case."
It's the same thing. Civil case. "Law" means under contract
law. You go to agree to arbitraion and you agree to the
results, you are now under contract. This is nothing
but fear mongering and racism.
\_ yea, what he said. -ppp
\_ Sharia tends to be a bit more murdery and misogynist, don't you
think? |