Berkeley CSUA MOTD:2008:September:14 Sunday <Saturday, Monday>
Berkeley CSUA MOTD
2008/9/14-19 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:51158 Activity:nil
9/13    McCain's campaign continues to be at war with the truth.
2008/9/14-19 [Recreation/Humor] UID:51159 Activity:nil
9/13    To guy who thinks xkcd is actually funny: have you checked out  I take it all back.  Compared to,
        xkcd is fucking brilliant.  --hates xcd guy
        \_ Compared to a hernia is fucking brilliant.
             -thinks xkcd is meh mixed with rare but worthwhile funny guy
2008/9/14-19 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:51160 Activity:nil
9/13    Yup, no racism in this election AT ALL!
        \_ You are the racist one, for even pointing this out. I am sure it
           is all a harmless joke.
           \_ You're joking or trolling? right?  Please tell me you're joking.
              I'm the racist one?  Huh?  Are you familiar with "little black
2008/9/14-19 [Uncategorized] UID:51161 Activity:nil
2008/9/14-19 [Uncategorized] UID:51162 Activity:nil
9/13    Is there anything McCain actually beleives in beyond getting
2008/9/14-23 [Health/Disease/General, Health/Women] UID:51163 Activity:moderate
9/14    bumped so this guy can see:
                    \_ I hope you are not still sitting out the month the
                       market goes up 20%, which it inevitably will, sooner
                       or later. How are you going to decide to jump back in?
                       \_ when the 50DMA increases past the 200DMA by 1% for
                          a major index
                          \_ Define "major index."
                             \_ DJIA.  Come on.  Hello?  I'm not trying to
                                "trick" you here.
                                \_ Okay, then post on the motd when you decide
                                   to get back in. I am kind of curious as to
                                   how your attempt at market timing works out.
                                   \_ all right.  keep in mind that I will
                                      likely put in 50-80% of my savings in,
                                      with 20-50% in CDs/bonds and "my favorite
                                      for the last 9-12 months, I have been 80%
                                      in CDs/bonds, and 20% in "my favorite
                                      shorts" (with appropriate stops)
                                      \_ There is a *huge* difference between
                                         being 20% cash and being 50% cash.
        \_ You're an idiot. I bet you predicted 10 of the last 3 recessions.
           I'm still in equities and I will be in equities 30 years from
           now. Have fun trading in and out. There's even a chance you
           will beat my return, but don't attribute it to skill.
           \_ bring up any major index in  use the
              Interactive Chart.  Draw the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA lines.
              go in at when the 50 crosses the 200 at +1%.  go out when the
              go in when the 50 crosses the 200 at +1%.  go out when the
              50 crosses the 200 at -1%.  now tell me who's the idiot.
              well, just emotional, but that's a normal reaction.
              well, just emotional, but that's a normal reaction.  people tell
              their relatives this shit and they tell them to go jump in a
              lake.  like i posted originally, it's your money, so do with it
              lake.  like i posted earlier, it's your money, so do with it
              what you will.
              \_ technical factors like those are not predictive.
                 \_ have you done the exercise yet?  please do so, and don't
                    respond right away.  wait a week.  run this on more
                    indices.  don't think about this in terms of who wins the
                    argument.  if you still don't wanna do it--that's fine,
                    but now you know what people like me are doing.
                    \_ Run what exercise?  Look at the past and expect it to
                       predict the future?  Here's a hint: The more people
                       try to chase the past behavior of the market, the
                       less it will behave like it used to.  This is exactly
                       the lesson of the hedge funds.  -tom
                       \_ "bring up any major index ...".  Do it.
                          think about it.  wait a week.  ask your respected
                          peers.  ask them to do it too.
                          the lesson on the hedge funds is that if you lever
                          up 30:1 it can bite you in the ass, especially if
                          you chase yield.
                          btw, I don't disagree with you on your point about
                          "the more people try to chase past behavior the less
                          it behaves like it used to".  in fact, this thought
                          is foremost of my concerns.
                          it behaves like it used to".
                          \_ The hedge funds wound up leveraging up because the
                             return on their strategy fell from .5% to less
                             than .2% in just a few years.  Individuals trying
                             to identify technical criteria for investing
                             are basically like the guy who has a system to
                             win in Vegas.  -tom
                             \_ 80% of technical analysis is crap.  have you
                                performed the exercise yet?  anyways, it's
                                your money.  ^Vegas^poker.
                                performed the exercise yet?  please do
                                consider this for a week.  you can check out
                                performance every 6 months.  it seems like
                                we're not going to settle this now, anyway.
                                \_ This would have nicely dodged the last two
                                   downturns, but look at 1987-1992 for a
                                   period where this strategy leaves you
                                   trailing a buy and hold investor by quite
                                   a bit.
        \_ for more detail on what tom is talking about, look up David Swensen
           or John Bogle.
           \_ works very well in a bull market, and much, much better than
              "letting J6P have at it with the market" -op
        \_ When will be the peak tomorrow?
           \_ Today was +3.86% in DJIA.  Expect up to +4%, then look for
              resistance on upward movement.  Largest volume occurs in the last
              [see thread]
              \_ DJIA is now +3.34% and shows upward resistance.
                 for example, today I would move ~16% of my final desired
                 for example, now I would move ~16% of my final desired
                 safety portion of my portfolio out of stocks.
                 Certainly there is a chance it can go higher, but if it rises
                 to +4.0% I would drop off another ~16%; or if I were rally
                 to +4.0% I would move another ~16%; or if I were really
                 sophisticated I would set some EOD limit orders on this +4.0%
                 and sell earlier on some new 1-day top with upward
                 and sell earlier on some new 1-day local maximum with upward
                 resistance.  as always, please consult a professional
                 financial advisor. -op
                 \_ summary:  you should already have been out 33% as of the
                    drop past +4.0%. -op
2008/9/14-19 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:51164 Activity:nil
9/14    The Obama and McCain tax plans, in a nifty chart: (Washington Post)
        \_ Per this article, per O's plan, I would be getting something like
           $1k tax cut, and everyone less well off than me would
           be getting a larger % tax cut.  Under McCain's plan, everyone
           BETTER off then me would be getting a larger % cut.
2008/9/14-19 [Politics/Domestic/President/Reagan] UID:51165 Activity:nil
9/14    LEH bailout fails; to file for bankruptcy tonight.
        MER bought by BAC (firewall).
        Central bank liquidity fund coming online.
        Guys:  Multi-year global credit deleveraging.  Nasty shit.
        It's your money though, so do with it what you will.
        \_ "But great as our tax burden is, it has not kept pace with public
            spending. For decades we have piled deficit upon deficit,
            mortgaging our future and our children's future for the temporary
            convenience of the present. To continue this long trend is to
            guarantee tremendous social, cultural, political, and economic
            upheavals." -Ronald Reagan
            \_ "Deficits don't matter. Reagan proved that." -Dick Cheney
2008/9/14-19 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:51166 Activity:nil
9/13    I just heard Palin on the radio in ANOTHER speech where she claims
        she was against the Alaskan earmarks.  SHE SAID "THANKS.  BUT NO
        THANKS." AGAIN.  I wish she'd cut it out.  I'm not going to fault her
        too much for taking the money, just lying about it, and sounding
        annoying while lying about it.  Has any governor in the history of
        this universe ever refused federal money?  I bet they haven't in
        the last 100 years.
        \_ OH YEAH?  Well, that's just like, your opinion, man.
2008/9/14-19 [Politics/Foreign/Europe, Politics/Foreign/MiddleEast/Israel] UID:51167 Activity:low
9/14    Good-bye, Britain:
        ISLAMIC law has been officially adopted in Britain, with sharia courts
        given powers to rule on Muslim civil cases.
        \_ Just like how the Jewish courts run there too?  At least they
           stooped so low as to have non-judges presid and make judgements for
           kangaroo courts broadcast on television like here.
           \_ Ummm... TV courts aren't leagally binding beyond the contract
              you sign when you go on.  That's a huge difference. -!pp
              \_ "Under the act, the sharia courts are classified as
                 arbitration tribunals. The rulings of arbitration tribunals
                 are binding in law, provided that both parties in the dispute
                 agree to give it the power to rule on their case."
                 It's the same thing.  Civil case.  "Law" means under contract
                 law.  You go to agree to arbitraion and you agree to the
                 results, you are now under contract.  This is nothing
                 but fear mongering and racism.
                 \_ yea, what he said. -ppp
           \_ Sharia tends to be a bit more murdery and misogynist, don't you
Berkeley CSUA MOTD:2008:September:14 Sunday <Saturday, Monday>