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| 2008/3/17-21 [Finance/Investment] UID:49471 Activity:nil |
3/17 BSC chart for last 5 days, making dot com bubble stocks proud!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BSC&t=5d
\_ "Unless derivatives contracts are collateralized or
guaranteed, their ultimate value also depends on the
creditworthiness of the counter-parties to them. But
before a contract is settled, the counter-parties record
profits and losses--often huge in amount--in their current
earnings statements without so much as a penny changing
hands. Reported earnings on derivatives are often wildly
overstated. That's because today's earnings are in a
significant way based on estimates whose inaccuracy may
not be exposed for many years. The errors usually reflect
the human tendency to take an optimistic view of one's
commitments. But the parties to derivatives also have
enormous incentives to cheat in accounting for them...The
two parties to the contract might well use differing
models allowing both to show substantial profits for many
years.
Another problem about derivatives is that they can
exacerbate trouble that a corporation has run into for
completely unrelated reasons. This pile-on effect occurs
because many derivatives contracts require that a company
suffering a credit downgrade immediately supply collateral
to counter-parties...The need to meet this demand can then
throw the company into a liquidity crisis that may, in
some cases, trigger still more downgrades. It all becomes
a spiral that can lead to a corporate meltdown.
A participant may see himself as prudent, believing his
large credit exposures to be diversified and therefore not
dangerous. However under certain circumstances, an
exogenous event that causes the receivable from Company A
to go bad will also affect those from Companies B through
Z.
The derivatives genie is now well out of the bottle, and
these instruments will almost certainly multiply in
variety and number until some event makes their toxicity
clear...In my view, derivatives are financial weapons of
mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent,
are potentially lethal." --Warren Buffett, 2002
http://www.fintools.com/docs/Warren%20Buffet%20on%20Derivatives.pdf
-tom |
| 2008/3/17-21 [Reference/RealEstate] UID:49472 Activity:moderate |
3/16 http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23673100 What does this ALL MEAN? Bear Stern + JP Morgan + government interventions. I mean, is the market going to crash or not? When will home prices be available? I have about $200K in CDs and I want to know WHEN is a good time to buy a home. \_ The way things are going, I would worry about my job and my health care before I'd worry about buying a home. \_ "The financial markets are as close to collapse as I've seen in my career" -Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi (3/17/08) \_ Translation: my bonus is looking kind of thin this year, so I am begging for a government handout. \_ If you are trying to time the bottom of the housing market, give up, because that sort of thing is notoriously difficult. If you just want to play it safe, hold on until prices start to go back up again, which should be quite obvious. This might easily take five or six years, though, if the past is any indication. Are you ready to wait that long? \_ It took 7 years last time and that was with a run-up nothing like what occurred this time. I would guess it will be 10 years at least. \_ So wait until the freefall stops, and then buy, so you don't go underwater in the 1st year, which is quite depressing. \_ So wait until the freefall stops, and then buy, so you don't go underwater in the 1st year, which is quite depressing. \_ Buy when you can afford to and don't worry about paper profits and losses. My neighbor bought her house in the 1950s. She could care less that she can sell it for 100X what she paid for it. It's still just her house like it always was. People need to stop treating their primary residence like investment property. \_ How do you know when the end of the freefall is? \_ In the 50s, people keep their jobs for a very long time. In today's world, we don't stay in the same job or location very long. The average length of stay in a house in the US is ~7 years. I for one have had to switch from the east bay to the peninsula and back and finally ended up in Milpitas throughout countless acquisitions, mergers, job changes, and one lay-offs. \_ No one is going to sell/buy a new house because their \_ NO ONE? I know a few. Want to rephrase your statement again? Crossing the bridge is a total pain in the butt, but I suppose it's still a lot better than any LA freeway. \_ "No one who cares about their financial health, because buying/selling a house every year or two is very expensive if it is your primary residence, therefore no one smart would do such a thing, such a person, being smart, would rent". How is that? I meet the correct motd anal retentive standard? I commute to the peninsula from the far east bay every day. BFD. job moved between the east bay and south bay or peninsula. The commute is not that hard. If you need to be that close to work and your work location changes that quickly you should rent. \_ If we knew that we'd all be retired billionaires enjoying our islands, not posting on the motd. \_ The one is not contraindicitive of the other. If I was a retired billionaire with my own island, I might still post to the motd. |
| 2008/3/17 [Politics/Domestic/RepublicanMedia] UID:49473 Activity:nil 90%like:49475 |
3/17 Oops, Obama was at the hate sermon
http://newsmax.com/kessler/Obama_hate_America_sermon/2008/03/16/80870.html
\_ Wait, I thought the newsmax line was that Obama was really
a closet Muslim. Which one is it?
\_ This story was already debunked. Sorry.
\_ link?
\_ http://factcheck.barackobama.com/factcheck/2008/03/16/fact_obama_did_not_attend_serv.php
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/17/opinion/17kristol.html?_r=2&ref=opinion&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
http://conwebwatch.tripod.com/blog/index.blog/1797602/did-kessler-make-false-claim-about-obama
\_ newsmax is a much more reliable source than the liberal
biased NYT.
\_ Teehee. The newsmax story argues for something that
appears to have been physically impossible. But I guess
three separate cites debunking your precious fantasy
aren't enough, so please continue to stand by it.
Also, the NYT link is to a column by William Kristol,
not exactly a member of the vast left wing conspiracy.
He has retracted the "fact" at the top of his column,
you will note.
\_ Kessler says he's standing by his story.
\_ Apparently Davis, who is a freep poster, "lost his notes."
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1986607/posts?page=334#334
This shit is laughable. Are you really going to stand by
this? |
| 2008/3/17-21 [Politics/Foreign/MiddleEast/Iraq] UID:49474 Activity:low |
3/17 See, the Mission really was Accomplished:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080317/pl_nm/iraq_dc_37
\_ Dick Cheney, last great Crowleyan magician: if I say it loud enough,
it must be true!
\_ Headline of the day:
"Cheney praises 'phenomenal progress' as bomber kills 39"
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/story/30645.html
\_ The postmortems on this Administration will be amazing...
as will the hagiographies. I predict a GWB airport in 20
years.
\_ In Baghdad.
\_ If they named an airport after GWB in Baghdad it would
be because he was considered a local hero. Think about
what you just said.
\_ He is just as likely to be considered a hero there
(by the rulers, at least, who decide these kinds
of things) as in America. |
| 2008/3/17-21 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:49475 Activity:kinda low 90%like:49473 |
3/17 Oops, Obama was at the hate sermon
http://preview.tinyurl.com/yumfcv [newsmax]
\_ Yawn. All it takes is one Swift Boat to destroy him.
\_ What an incisive analysis!
\_ Wait, I thought the newsmax line was that Obama was really
a closet Muslim. Which one is it?
\_ Why can't a closet Muslim show at an extremist hate sermon?
Apparently he wasn't there but being a Muslim or not has nothing
to do with it.
\_ It's pretty funny how a few youtube clips of this preacher,
whom Obama has repeatedly said he doesn't always agree with,
trump everything Obama has ever said or written throughout
his life. That's a pretty amazing standard. I guess by this
standard, McCain has always believed that the Catholic
Church is the "great whore?"
\_ URL to the youtube clips?
\_ This story was already debunked. Sorry.
\_ link?
\_ http://factcheck.barackobama.com/factcheck/2008/03/16/fact_obama_did_not_attend_serv.php
\_ http://preview.tinyurl.com/39cpn7 [barackobama.com]
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/17/opinion/17kristol.html?_r=2&ref=opinion&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
http://conwebwatch.tripod.com/blog/index.blog/1797602/did-kessler-make-false-claim-about-obama
http://preview.tinyurl.com/26jw5f [nytimes]
http://preview.tinyurl.com/ytjtje [conwebwatch]
\_ newsmax is a much more reliable source than the liberal
biased NYT.
\_ Teehee. The newsmax story argues for something that
appears to have been physically impossible. But I guess
three separate cites debunking your precious fantasy
aren't enough, so please continue to stand by it.
Also, the NYT link is to a column by William Kristol,
not exactly a member of the vast left wing conspiracy.
He has retracted the "fact" at the top of his column,
you will note.
\_ Kessler says he's standing by his story.
\_ Apparently Davis, who is a freep poster, "lost his notes."
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1986607/posts?page=334#334
http://preview.tinyurl.com/2xlxox [freerepublic]
This shit is laughable. Are you really going to stand by
this?
\_ Kessler scrubbing his wiki page:
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/03/newsmaxs_kessler_scrubs_refere.php
http://preview.tinyurl.com/32u723 [tpm] |
| 2008/3/17-21 [Recreation/Dating] UID:49476 Activity:moderate |
3/17 motd lying sack of shit guy here. I still have the not getting me
laid girlfriend. A married McCain low level staffer wants to
go to Vegas for me with a weekend. What do people do in Vegas?
What should I do?
\_ i'm not lying!
\_ They blow their money on gambling and strippers. I say go-fer-it.
You have to experience the debauchery of Vegas at least once in
your lifetime and this guy probably knows how to party.
\_ I'm male. she is female. do you get it now?
\_ Does she work for John McCain?
\_ Yes.
\_ What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas. I still think you
should go see some strippers with her.
\_ wow so vegas is this 'safe zone'? i need to follow
up on it.
\_ Alternatively, what happens in Vegas, comes home as an STD.
\_ i'm new to this breaking-up-a-happy-relationship-with-a-tryst-
in vegas thing. any pointers?
\_ Do you even try to have sex with your girlfriend. What's the matter with
you that she won't put out or you won't leave?
\_ Do you even try to have sex with your girlfriend. What's the matter
with you that she won't put out or you won't leave?
\_ Women just don't like sex and guys put up with it.
\_ If this sweeping generality were the case, op would not get
laid in Las Vegas anyway. Pass.
\_ Well, there are strippers, whores, and gold-diggers who
get paid to do it. Doesn't mean they enjoy it.
\_ Your blatant misogyny makes my head hurt.
\_ You can't handle the truth. There are plenty
of nice, normal women of course. But those don't
like sex unless they were molested and then they
usually become strippers/porn stars/etc.
although sometimes they become nymphomaniacs
who lead self-destructive lifestyles.
\_ And sometimes they marry some really lucky guy
who has a sex drive that matches theirs.
\_ Would you be so kind as to post your name and
address so's we'll know where to arrest you when
the pretty girls who wouldn't sleep with you
start showing up in refrigerators?
\_ Do you really think she wants sex? Maybe she just wants some
cheap buffet food! She's not fat though. I'm going to hell.
\_ If she's not fat then she's a golddigger, wants a baby,
wants you to kill her husband, or has some similar motive. |
| 2008/3/17-21 [Uncategorized] UID:49477 Activity:nil |
3/17 Rates on super-conforming loans virtually the same as regular ol'
jumbos:
http://www.rpm-mortgage.com/julian
\_ I thought only Countrywide was offering them right now.
\_ nonono, "Super Jumbo" has ALWAYS meant > $650K
the new conformings still are pending availability: first comes
FHA-backed, then Fannie/Freddie Mae several weeks later |
| 2008/3/17-21 [Politics/Domestic/President/Bush] UID:49478 Activity:nil |
3/17 So what's up with Bush's government intervention of the financial
market (e.g. Bear Sterns)? I mean, I thought REPUBLICANS are pro
FREE MARKET INVISIBLE HAND but clearly, the hand is very visible.
\_ I supported the Iraq War -emarkp
\_ Capitalism for the masses, socialism for the rich Wall Street guys!
After all, deep executive talent is awfully hard to find in a
competitive global marketplace.
\_ "Privatize the profits, socialize the losses" -- the Republican
mantra. Get rid of any and all regulation to maximize risk and
return, and when everything collapses (long after all the rich
have gotten obscenely richer) bail the whole train wreck out
using taxpayer money.
\_ waiting for jblack and emarkp to counter these blatantly
false liberal statements.
\_ is there supposed to be something wrong with that?
\_ yes. |
| 2008/3/17-21 [Finance, Finance/Investment] UID:49479 Activity:nil |
3/17 So, are we or are we not in a recession?
\_ A rule of thumb is "two consecutive quarters of declining GDP."
We may not have actually hit that yet, but it seems obvious we
will. -tom
\_ it's not a rule of thumb, it's the definition used in the field.
\_ there are two definitions:
(a) what you guys said
(b) NBER defined, to summarize: significant economic slowdown
as measured by a combination of factors, including (a)
\- on a local note, of these people:
http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions.html
frankel is ex-ucb dept econ, c. romer and d. romer are
ucb dept econ. |
| 2008/3/17-21 [Computer/SW/OS/OsX] UID:49480 Activity:nil |
3/17 Anyone using a Windows Mobile based phone and is using a mac to sync/
backup? I don't want the current iPhone, but my phone's on its last
leg, so can't wait for the next iPhone to come out. I'm considering
the Moto Q (9h.) Thanks.
\_ I think the default iSync for Windows Mobile is not very good.
Most people I know with a Mac and Windows Mobile use Missing
Sync:
http://www.markspace.com/missingsync_windowsmobile.php |
| 2008/3/17-21 [Computer/SW/Apps] UID:49481 Activity:kinda low |
3/17 Is there a way to compare differences between two substantially
similar Excel and/or Powerpoint documents other than going through
them manually?
\_ In Excel 2003, there is a "Compare and Merge Workbooks..." option
under the Tools menu. (But for some reason it is greyed out in my
Excel 2003.) In PowerPoint 2003 there is "Compare and Merge
Presentations...". I've never used either, though.
\_ Sounds great, but I cannot find this in Office 2004 for Mac.
\_ Search for "merge workbooks" in Excel help, it explains
what you need to do to merge two workbooks. I think you
will need to share one of your workbooks and then make
a copy of it. In the copy you need to paste in the other
workbook. Then you can use the merge feature to merge the
two together and see the changes.
\_ Save them in the office XML format and compare those with diff.
\_ How do I save in XML? I don't see that as an option.
\_ AFAIK, you need Office 2007/2008 to export to XML. Earlier
versions don't support XML.
\_ I thought you could always save in some sort of text
format (tab delimited or whatever). I'd look for that.
\_ For Excel you can but it is primitive. For Powerpoint,
I dunno.
\_ I think all versions of Excel can export to comma
separated and tab delimited text files, but it can
be pretty hard to compare these files.
\_ My wife who's an accountant asked me the same question back when
Excel 2000 was the latest version, and here's the solution I
figured:
1. Open the two files in Excel, say foo.xls and bar.xls.
2. Find out how many rows and columns there are in Sheet 1 in
foo.xls and bar.xls.
3. Create a new file.
4. For Sheet 1, Cell A1 in the new file, enter
=EXACT([foo.xls]Sheet1!A1,[bar.xls]Sheet1!A1)
5. Highlight Cell A1, click Edit -> Copy.
6. Highlight the same number of rows and columns as in foo.xls and
bar.xls.
7. Click Edit -> Paste.
8. Click Edit -> Find. Under "Look in:", choose "Values".
9. Under "Find what:", enter "false", click "Find All".
You'll have to repeat this if there are multiple sheets in foo.xls
and bar.xls. You'll have to replace EXACT() with another function
if you want case-insensitive comarison or if you want to find
formatting differences.
--- yuen |
| 2008/3/17-21 [Computer/SW/Security, Industry/Jobs, Computer/SW/Unix] UID:49482 Activity:nil |
3/17 http://market-ticker.denninger.net Former sysadmin says Fed measures not addressing root of problem, IBs/banks will eventually be taken to woodshed \_ Once again, who cares if he is a sysadmin? \_ It dovetails nicely with the background of most of the pontificators on the motd. What's not to like? We really need to get this guy a soda account! \_ If sysadmins had run Bear Sterns the company would still be solvent right now. \_ He's got tech skills. I've got tech skills. Therefore I care what he says about the economy...? Huh? He may be 100% on the mark but having tech skills does not make his writing on the economy any more interesting. |
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