Berkeley CSUA MOTD:2008:February:21 Thursday <Wednesday, Friday>
Berkeley CSUA MOTD
2008/2/21-25 [Reference/RealEstate] UID:49205 Activity:kinda low
2/20    Suburbs, The Next Slum?
        \_ Well let me tell ya, city living SUCKS if you're having kids.
           The baby crying, the constant buying of baby/boy/girl things
           requiring lots of trips to/from the elevator, waiting for
           the elevator, people knocking your wall to shut your baby up,
           etc etc. As long as people have kids, there will be demand
           for suburbia.
           \_ I personally would rather live within walking distance of
              all my shopping than drive. Do you really think using the
              elevator is more inconvenient than having to strap your
              kid into a carseat, drive to the mall, find parking, etc?
              I have a kid in The City and I have had none of the problems
              you describe. Did you actually try it, or are you imagining
              what it might be like?
              \_ How do you take all of your stuff home with you when
                 you walk? When I lived in Berkeley I had to call a cab
                 to drive me home after I walked to the store. At that
                 point I may as well drive.
                 \_ It depends. Mostly we just shop every day, since there
                    is a produce store 1/2 block away and a butcher 1 block
                    away. Safeway is only three blocks away, and I have a
                    push cart that will hold 3 bags. Twice a month or so,
                    we go to Costco and take a car for that. I gotta tell
                    you having a 24 hour/day grocery store three blocks
                    away is very convenient.
        \_ Uh, no. As dollar devaluate, tons of wealthy foreigners will
           start buying up properties again. Remember when the Japs owned
           25% of NYC's buildings in the 80s? The rollercoaster goes up,
           and goes down, and up, and down...
        \_ Friend of Kunstler?
        \_ Seems like a good article, but a surplus of 22 million large
           lot homes? On what planet? Certainly not in urban CA. The
           article admits much of what it says applies to newly built
           suburbs on the fringes far from central cities. Is 40% of the
           housing stock really accounted for in such a way? I doubt it. What
           they call "lifestyle centers" in the article is really mixed
           use. It is popular now. Eventually it will go out of style and
           then be popular again. This is cyclical, not some long-term trend.
           \_ Mixed use has been how most cities have been arranged for most
              of history, actually.
              \_ Most wealthy people have been trying to get as
                 far from the noise and the filth of cities throughout
                 most of history, actually.
        \_ Ultimately growth will be financially driven. Right now urban
           developers have a tougher time selling and making new homes
           while suburban developers have reaped huge profits during the
           housing boom.
           \_ Developers react to the demands of the public or else they
              go out of business.
           \_ "Right now"? You mean a few years ago, right? Right now,
              suburban developers are facing massive write offs and are
              dumping inventory like mad in auctions. Some of them are
              even going out of business. Meanwhile, the luxury high-rise
              condo construction business in SF is booming.
              \_ Doubtful. Bust is bust, regardless of suburb or hi-rise.
                 Got URL to support your claim, or you're just talking
                 outa your ass?
                 \_ (PDF)
                    Note condo price per sq foot graph.
                    Or check out for more details.
                    \_ Note the rate of change of condo inventory over time
                       compared to that of SFR. It looks like the condo
                       curve is getting steeper.
                       \_ That is because literally thousands of new luxury
                          condos are coming onto the market. This has not
                          \_ And are not being sold judging by the rate of
                             change of inventory. Inventory doesn't mean
                             "units in existence". It means "units on the
                             market". With all of those units coming
                             online what do you think will happen to
                             \_ Are you familiar with the concept of
                                gentrification? I personally think that
                                prices will stay more or less steady.
                                SF is more like Manhattan than it is
                                like Las Vegas.
                                \_ 1. I think prices in Manhattan will
                                      fall short-term, too.
                                   2. SF is how many million people short
                                      of Manhattan?
                          lowered prices, either. Just drive through SOMA
                          sometime, they are building them like mad. I think
                          10k new units are projected to come onto the market
                          in the next three years. Will this crash the market?
                          I dunno, but it certainly has not yet...
                          \_ Do you think 10-20K new people are going to move
                             into SF and buy one of these units? They are
                             still building them like mad because the
                             projects have been in the works since the
                             market was hot. Remember when commercial was
                             hot in SF and how there was a lot of new
                             construction which led to vacant buildings
                             for years after that? And then <DEAD><DEAD>
                             happened and those places along Market and in
                             SOMA were finally leased? And then <DEAD><DEAD>
                             busted and they were vacant again? And now
                             they are building "lofts" in the same place
                             which were snapped up? What happens next in
                             this cycle?
                             \_ To answer your question, yes I remember and
                                I remember that home prices never really went
                                down, even during the bust. I do expect
                                10-20k people to move into SF to fill those
                                units. Why wouldn't they?
                                \_ Home prices didn't go down, but prices
                                   for commercial space went way down. Why
                                   do you expect the population of SF to
                                   increase so much in the next 3 years?
                                   The population is 33,000 smaller now than
                                   it was in 2000 according to the US Census.
                                   \_ SF lost a lot of people after the dot
                                      com bust. The population has been going
                                      up for the last three years. Remember
                                      1/4M commute into SF every day to work.
                                      It would not be surprising if 1/10th of
                                      them ditched the commute if given the
                                      \_ They will only do that if prices
                                         fall to a level they can afford
                                         or else those so inclined likely
                                         would have already.
2008/2/21-25 [Politics/Foreign/Asia/Japan, Reference/History/WW2/Japan] UID:49206 Activity:nil
2/21    Any Japanese here?  Does Chikako Aoyama make any X-rated adult video?
        I can only find R-rated ones on the net.  Thanks.
        \_ Don't ask crap like that on the motd.  Take it to
           \_ That's useful.  Thx.  -- OP
        \_ key word: usually
2008/2/21-25 [Academia/Berkeley/CSUA/Motd, Computer/SW/Editors/Vi] UID:49207 Activity:nil
2/21    Why don't people respect the lock on the motd put on by vi or
        emacs? Are they that paranoid about kchang's motd watching program?
        Is anyone still using motdedit?
        \_ hey I still use it.  Some people don't though.  some sneaky folks
           edit a copy of the motd offline and put it in place, not caring how
           much they stomp on others' changes that might have happened in the
           meantime... -ERic
           \_ The problem here is that if enough people edit offline, it
              becomes impossible to edit using vi.  I have taken to using
              the offline approach because vi changes I make get reliably
              stomped. Or maybe some dolt wrote a script to remove changes
              I make *shrug*. -- ilyas
              \_ My changes get stomped sometimes, too.  The best are when
                 I post 2 things at the same time and *one* of them is
                 gone later.  Doesn't take a genius to figure out what
                 happened but by editing offline it is trivial to restore
                 maliciously edited or removed material.  I also fix the
                 malicious trolling edits of other people's posts which is
                 something you can't do with live edits.  Again, it is just
                 a button press to fix those.
              \_ obUseEmacs
        \_ exactly, I don't want to be identified.
           \_ don't you want to know who has a sore on their groin?
                \_ {insert Slide joker here}
           \_ Ok I feel bad about this, and have semi-anonymized
              usernames. Tell me if this is okay with you        -kching
        \_ I use a little script to merge changes others might make while
           I'm editing. It also works to merge my stuff in again if someone
           clobbers it. So while I don't respect locks I don't care anymore
           if someone overwrites me. (If you had a lock and you overwrite
           someone that seems reasonable enough to me, though I don't
           overrwrite people. I sometimes restore others' stuff too.)
           \_ Same here.  I don't update the master copy unless no one else is
              editing it and do diffs, etc, as well to make sure I'm not
              stomping.  I also write stuff I decide after I don't really
              want to post so it gives me a chance to drop those bits before
              going live.
              \_ Also: no grabbing lock and then getting distracted. I use
                 diff also. It's the only sane way to see what people are
                 adding in a large motd.
        \_ key word: usually
2008/2/21-25 [Computer/HW/Memory, Computer/SW/Security] UID:49208 Activity:nil
2/21    Cold Boot Attacks Against Disk Encryption:
2008/2/21-25 [Health/Disease/AIDS, Health/Skin] UID:49209 Activity:nil
2/21    There is a sore on my groin.  Is it herpes?
        \_ If you bike a lot, it'll go away.
        \_ I am pretty sure that no one licensed to practice medicine posts
           to the motd. Go see a doctor.
           \_ I think there is one.
        \_ There are a lot of things it could be.  It probably isn't herpes,
           but you should definitely get the sore examined before it goes away
           to be sure.  If you don't have insurance, there are plenty of free
           clinics that offer this service.
           \_ i thought herpes gave you this IMMEDIATE FIERY WHITE SORE
              ON THE SUBWAY, but my symptom is this little annoying bump.
              No fluid (yet).  No scab (yet).  Just sitting there.
              I don't know what it is.
              \_ Sheesh.  calm down dude.  It's not AIDS
              \_ You have smallpox.  No big deal.
              \_ smallpox guy nuked my post, but anyway... you could have
                 which isn't really that big of a deal.  You might have
                 genital warts.  You might have a couple of other dozen
                 things.  You might even have herpes, which has enormous
                 variability in symptoms.  Mostly, you need to get yourself
                 to the clinic and stop ranting on the motd.  You'll be
                 fine.  Get a hold of yourself.
                 \_ Woah thats gnarly.
                    \_ What, molluscum?  Nah.  Clinics don't even bother
                       to treat it, since it has no ill health effects,
                       causes no pain or irritation, and tends to
                       go away on its own without recurrence.  There's
                       also no evidence that condoms do much to help
                       prevent its spread, since it can be transmitted just
                       by skin contact.  If he has it and he's really freaked
                       out about it, he can get a doctor to freeze the bump(s)
                 \_ I used to have this on my lower body (from stomach down)
                    for more than ten years.  It came and went by itself.
                    Neither betadine nor permangenate helped.  Then it
                    mysteriously stopped a few years ago, and I have no idea
                    \_ Yeah, it's an odd one.  Children get it on their faces
                       a lot as well.  Essentially the virus is in the papule,
                       and contact spreads it.  The reason it came and went
                       is that molluscum has a high tendency to "self-infect"
                       - i.e., you rub the bump on your lower stomach, then
                       rub some other part of your stomach and pretty soon
                       you've got two bumps.  And like you said, it just seems
                       to go away by itself.  This isn't the same mechanism
                       as herpes recurrence, however.
                \_ My symptoms do not look like
                   but the 'weird pimple shows up once, then another a few weeks
                   later' bit does.
                   but the 'weird pimple shows up once, then another a few
                   weeks later' bit does.
                   \_ You sound like you have molluscum for sure.  You should
                      get a doctor to check it out, and maybe freeze the bumps
                      off if you're really concerned.
        \_ Sounds like syphilis to me.
        \_ key word: usually
2008/2/21-25 [Reference/RealEstate] UID:49210 Activity:low
2/21    Google for Las Vegas luxury condo meltdown. Luxury condos still
        doing well? Doubt it.
        \_ Is SF more like Las Vegas or Manhattan?
           You may wish to read:
        \_ How the hell do the "affordable unit" things work? Do you have to
           enter some kind of lottery to get below-market rates? What is the
           point anyway, seems to me like they should just build more units
           instead of subsidizing a few.
           \_ The incentive is for the developer to build more units. All
              new construction must contain some mandatory number of such
              units, often in exchange for some other concession like
              relaxed zoning. Just hoping a developer builds more units doesn't
              work so well.
           \_ Yeah it is some kind of lottery. There are set-asides for families
              making area median (~80k/yr) as well as 80% and 60%. You are
              required to sell the unit back to the agency that runs the
              thing when you are done, at a price equal to what you paid
           \_ Yeah it is some kind of lottery. There are set-asides for
              families making area median (~80k/yr) as well as 80% and 60%.
              You are required to sell the unit back to the agency that runs
              the thing when you are done, at a price equal to what you paid
              plus inflation, when you move. The reasoning goes that even
              if 3k more units were released to the market it would not
              lower prices that much, certainly not enough so that anyone
              making 80k/yr would be able to afford one.
        \_ key word: usually
2008/2/21-25 [Science/GlobalWarming] UID:49211 Activity:high
2/21    Just curious, what was Al Gore's plan to save the earth from
        global warming? And which candidate is closest to Al Gore's
        \_ McCain loves the environment, I think.
        \_ I dont recall Al having any plans to save it or stop global
           warming, just spread lots of fear and alarm about it being a
        \_ I thought it had something to do with the Kyoto Protocol.
        \_ His plan was to profit from liberal-guilt. And what policies
           of his do you mean? He's been in the private sector since 2001.
        \_ If you're not just trolling:
           \_ I want credit for driving members of the Casual Carpool every
              day. --erikred
           \_ Why does living in California lower my footprint?
              \_ weather. and maybe regulations, energy sources etc.
                 \_ Ok, just energy sources. I guess weather is accounted in
                    the monthly bills amounts.
              \_ "Location: Electricity is generated from different types of
                  power plants, such as coal, natural gas, and hydroelectric.
                  Different types of power plants create different amounts of
                  carbon dioxide per kilowatt hour of electricity produced;
                  therefore we need to know the user's location to apply the
                  correct calculation."
           \_ All motd posts are trolls, except for this one.
           \_ My carbon impact is .65, cool.
              \_ That's very good!  I drive a Prius and I still get 2.9. :-(
              \_ keyword: usually.
              \_ Mine was 1.85 and I don't give a crap about the environment.
              \_ Mine was 1.6 and I don't give a crap about the environment.
                 I wonder what Al Gore's score is.
              \_ Mine was 2.45, almost entirely based on plane flights.
                 (I don't drive and have solar power for my house).   -tom
                 \_ What about all the sushi you eat flown in from Japan
                    and the waste from all the foam cartons that are
                    manufactured for the comic books you have shipped
                    monthly to your home from Tennessee? These simplistic
                    calculators are just meant to make you feel good/bad.
                    \_ Mine was 24.8.  I feel great.  Of course the calculator
                       is silly.  You can't punch in a dozen numbers into a
                       javascript on the web and get a serious number out.
                       \_ I can't even imagine how you got such a high score.
                          I tried putting in a 1985 SUV with 20k miles/yr
                          and 10 flights a year and I still only got 16.
                          Do you fly a lot on business or something?
                          \_ I drive a V8 20k+ miles/year.  And worth every
                             \_ It looks like your lifestyle might be
                                particularly impacted if the US implements
                                a carbon tax, as looks increasingly likely.
                                \_ The economy is going to super-tank if a
                                   carbon tax passes.  Paying $8/gallon will
                                   be the least of anyone's worries at that
                                   point.  I could drive a toy that got twice
                                   the mileage but the actual savings is
                                   rather minimal, even at triple the price
                                   of gas.
                                   \_ A $5/gallon carbon tax would probably
                                      not be feasable, at least not all at once,
                                      this is true, but gasoline went up over
                                      $1/gallon without causing a recession.
                                      As long as it is done graduatlly, people
                                      As long as it is done gradually, people
                                      and the economy will adjust. Why do you
                                      object to poisoning the water with
                                      mercury, but think that leaving a
                                      damaged atmosphere for someone else
                                      to clean up is okay?
                                      to clean up is okay? What makes you
                                      think that a carbon tax would "super-tank"
                                      the economy, anyway?
                             \_ Worth every penny that you're not paying.
                                You are a tragedy of the commons!
                                \_ I could drive a prius which cost only
                                   a tiny bit less than my car and leave a
                                   giant battery behind in 5 years for someone
                                   else to clean up.  Way to go, greenboy.
                                   Have you swapped out your bulbs for the
                                   mercury filled ones yet?  Another smart
                                   move.  Or maybe put solar on your house
                                   which requires toxic industrial processes
                                   to produce those low efficiency solar cells?
                                   I'm all in favor of green solutions that
                                   actually work.  When we get some I'll be
                                   the first to use them.
                       \_ This is not GIGO.  It is GO, but not GI.  The input
                          is not garbage.  The computation is garbage, and
                          therefore the output is garbage.
                          \_ The input is GI.  For example, my electric bill
                             is not directly related to my carbon use because
                             electrical use uses tiered pricing.  My usage goes
                             up linearly but not my carbon use.  If it asked
                             what my actually amount of electricy used was then
                             maybe it wouldn't be so heavily GI.
                          \_ Why do you say that? Aren't the main contributors
                             of greenhouse gases personal transportation and
                             home energy use? I guess it might miss the
                             occasional person who burns a lot of wood at home
                             or something. Or do you have evidence that the
                             way they are calculating C0^2 emissions is actually
                             way they are calculating C0^2 emissions is
                             actually flawed?
                             \_ Yes, it is flawed.  See my reply above re:
                                electric pricing.
                             \_ I am guessing that industry and commercial
                                transport are bigger contributors, but
                                that's just a guess.
                                \_ It looks like it is about 50%/50%:
                                   \_ By "industry" I meant energy used in
                                      manufacturing and by commercial buildings,
                                      not just transportation. Your link
                                      says residential is 22% of energy use,
                                      but clearly some unspecified % of
                                      the 28% transportation use is also
                                      manufacturing and by commercial
                                      buildings, not just transportation.
                                      Your link says residential is 22% of
                                      energy use, but clearly some unspecified
                                      % of the 28% transportation use is also
                                      "residential" and not commercial. If
                                      we say it is 50% (not sure how real
                                      that is) it means maybe 36% is
                                      directly under our control and the
                                      rest is driven by our demands.
                                      \_ Yes, I see that. You are obviously
Berkeley CSUA MOTD:2008:February:21 Thursday <Wednesday, Friday>