11/26 Media lavishes attention on bogus Zogby poll showing Hillary trailing
while ignoring reputable Gallup poll
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/horsesmouth/2007/11/media_lavishes.php
\_ More proof of liberal media bias.
\_ I think you're being sarcastic, but one could make that argument
since Hillary is probably the farthest right of the Dem
canidates. However, what the media really hates is a sure bet.
A sure-win canidate reduces the drama and reportability.
\_ Both polls are meaningless since we don't elect the POTUS in a
general election, otherwise Gore would have won in 2000. Only
State by State polls matter, assuming any poll does. Frankly, most
of the polls survey such a tiny number of people they're all highly
questionable. Show me a poll of 2000+ LV's and I'll pay attention.
\_ There is one meaningful point--much of Hillary's support is
because of "electability". If she's not as electable as
previously believed, that may erode her support.
\_ I understand that "electability" is what got Kerry nominated
too.
\_ I don't actually think that is true, since Edwards is clearly
more "electable." While it is true that Hillary supporters
often tout her electability, I think it is because they know
it is her weakest point and they are trying to pre-empt
Obama and Edwards' attacks on the point. FWIW, Obama is
probably no more electable than she is. -Edwards supporter
\_ Why do you support Edwards?
\_ I agree with him on the big issues: the Iraq War, which
he thinks was a mistake and wants to wind down as quickly
as possible; healthcare, which he wants to reform and
ensure complete covereage, with the most comprehensive
plan of anyone; and campaign finance reform, where he
has consistenly taken a stance against the open buying
and selling of political favors which is what K Street
has become these days. He also would use the bully
pulpit to bring attention to the issue of widening
income imbalance, which no one else seems to even notice
or care about. I disagree with him on a few things, like
free trade, but those are not large enough issues for me
and he is not enough of a protectionist for me to be too
worried. I also think he has a wider appeal than any of
the other candidates from either party and because of this
might be able to correct our drift away from a dangerous
and unhealthy extreme partisanship that has become
the other candidates from either party and because of
this might be able to correct our drift toward a danger-
ous and unhealthy extreme partisanship that has become
endemic lately. I know I partly say this just because
I grew up poor and white too, and so his story resonants
with me, but polls bear out that he has the most support
from independent voters of any candidate. He also doesn't
poll that badly amongst Republicans, probably because of
his southern accent and his open declarations of faith.
\_ Why don't people understand that universal healthcare
will bankrupt this country in a way that Bush's
stupid war could only dream of? Any candidate
that advocates such a plan should be voted down
just as if he was advocating invading Iran.
\_ Why aren't all the Western Democracies bankrupt
then? Why don't people understand that nationalized
healthcare has worked and saved the overall economy
vastly in every place that it has been tried?
\_ 1. The US pays their (expensive) defense
bills for them.
2. They will be bankrupt soon enough.
\_ Point 1 really means the American tax payer
pays for their defense. We also pay for
their health care to a large degree because
their governments hold down the price of
drugs artificially.
\_ Don't kid yourself. What percentage of
health care is drug costs?
\_ A lot. You tell me otherwise. How
much was the drug bill they passed
a year or two ago? How much will it
balloon up in 10-20 years?
\_ Spending on perscription drugs is
less than 10% of the overall
national cost of health care.
This is not a large proportion.
http://www.csua.org/u/k3z (IHT)
It will grow unless we do something
drastic, like nationalize health
care spending though, you are right
there.
\_ Sure they will. Conservatives have been
saying that about Sweden for at least 60
years now and in that time, they have
actually been closing the gap with America
economically. This is an interesting time
to claim that anyone else is going "bankrupt"
\_ People always point to Sweden. How
about Germany, Japan, and France?
Here's a good article about France:
http://tinyurl.com/22bc73
\_ Sweden has the highest tax rate.
Similar arguments can be made for
Germany and France, though. Japan
actually has a lower tax rate than
the US.
\_ Sweden has the highest oveall tax
burden. You can make the same general
arguement for most of Europe: the
argument for most of Europe: the
economy is doing just fine, in spite of
decades of Conservative insistence that
the mixed model cannot possibly work.
Their per capita income has actually
closed with the US over any period
in the past you care to measure it for.
France is kind of a basket case, but it
has been for a long time. Japan
actually has a relatively low overall
tax burden, slightly lower than the US.
\_ You should ask the Swedes what they think
about the way Sweden runs things.
\_ It's a Democracy, right?
\_ It's a democracy, isn't it?
\_ If you think democratic government
implies satisfaction with the
government, politicians, policy, or
the way the country is going you are
breathtakingly retarded.
\_ argumentum ad hominem
\_ What do you think should be done about income
imbalance?
\_ Tax the rich til they aint rich no more!
\_ Have any actual constructive suggestions?
\_ That was it.
\_ Spend more on education and job retraining,
especially for people displace by globalization.
Repair our badly neglected infrastructure, which
should employ lots of people and fix some of
our transportation issues at the same time.
What ideas do you have?
\_ The domestic income gap is related to global
income gaps and thus ties in to trade issues
and currency issues.
When you have "jobs Americans won't do" the
system is broken. To reduce the income gap you
have to either raise the floor or lower the
ceiling. Lowering the ceiling seems backwards
to me. To raise the floor you have to protect
"lower level" jobs to some extent, protect the
value of human labor vs. global competition.
\_ See, you are a protectionist, too! I am not
fundamentally disagreeing with you, but I
don't think it is very easy, or perhaps not
even really possible to "protect" these
lower skill jobs without screwing up your
economy in the long run. How would you propose
doing it? Tariffs? Closing the border? Trying
to impose labor or environmental standards on
our trading partners? All of these are
problamatic, for different reasons.
\_ Well I'm not really advocating
protectionism, but that is what I see it
amounting to if you see imbalance as a big
problem. It's not something I've ever really
been concerned about.
I think we should end guest worker programs.
It does not help Americans. It's a form of
subsidy and protectionism for inefficient
uses of resources. I'm not a fan of H1B
either. We need to invest in our own people,
not bring in foreign workers, unless those
workers are truly unique. H1Bs to do
low-level interchangeable tech work is bad.
letting skilled workers move here
permanently is ok by me but only at a
controlled rate.
We need to let market forces work to find
the proper use of our own workers in our
own land.
For trade though, labor and environmental
standards have to be part of the equation.
Ethical standards can't be allowed to affect
competitive advantage. I think China has a
natural competitive advantage in mfg'ing
in its labor supply, but tax and currency
issues can still hurt us.
issues can still hurt us. I think our
national monetary policy and debt and
inflation issues hurt low-income workers
around the world and contributes to
global income disparity.
\_ I would like you to explain your last
sentence, because I don't see it. How
does our monetary, debt and inflation
policy hurt low-income workers around
the world?
Inflation causes rise in asset prices without corresponding wage _/
increases. Since the world economy is historically dollar-driven,
as dollar-denominated assets such as oil rise in value, poor
workers lose. They have the least assets. US policy of massive
deficit spending and monetary supply increases has broad effects
on the world economy. Dollar inflation cancels out real wage
value increases for economies dependent on the dollar.
Here are some articles:
http://www.house.gov/paul/congrec/congrec2006/cr021506.htm
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/HC22Ad02.html
The author of the second article has tons of other articles,
all very long and rambling. Have fun.
all very long and rambling. In that one he eventually talks about
Hitler. Have fun.
Honestly though I'm in way over my head with this economics stuff.
(Unfortunately I get the feeling that most of our politicians are
even more so.)
\_ That Asia Times article is really long and mostly disjointed.
It reminds me a lot of some of Lyndon LaRouche's stuff.
Have you actually read it? The Ron Paul thing was amusing, but
mostly wrong or irrelevant. I don't think inflation has the
effect that you seem to think that it has. The big losers in
an inflationary environment are people who depend on fixed
income investments, like retirees. The working poor don't feel
too much effect, since their paychecks are going up with prices
in a truly inflationary environment. What we are seeing now is
not really inflation, but a redistribution of purchasing power.
This is painful to the US, but probably feels pretty good to
China.
\_ I at least skimmed most of it. What exactly is wrong
in the Ron Paul speech?
China has its own income imbalance problem. I don't know if
average Chinese feels that great earning a couple bucks a day,
producing crap for Americans, with inflation in prices to
offset their wage gains. But I don't know, if overall they
are gaining real purchasing power then that's good...
Real inflation is higher than the official inflation figures.
Look at the costs of: education, medical care, drugs, energy
over the last couple decades. Wages for the lowest level jobs
have not grown much if at all. Food prices are on the rise
here and in China.
Inflation hits the poor and middle class much more than the
wealthy. Their savings are depreciated and the low wages
don't keep pace, and they don't have valuable assets.
\_ We are not in any kind of inflationary environment. If
we were, wages would be going up as well as prices, that
is what I keep telling you. Some things have gone up in
price, but many things are going down, like just about
anything that can be built in China. Real purchasing power
for urban Chinese has been going up very fast, but the
rural farmers are being left behind. A discussion of what
is wrong with the Gold Standard would require a new
topic, I am not going to go into it here. Inflation
has winners and losers, to be sure, but you can't just
make the blanket statement that it hurts the poor more
than the rich. Economically, it is actually the opposite
of that, because the poor have no assets to lose, while
many rich become poor (okay, usually middle class) in an
inflationary environment. Things like bonds get killed in
inflation. Stocks do poorly as well. Some kinds of hard
assets (like land) hold up well, but that is not how most
rich people hold their wealth anymore.
\_ Do you really think there is no inflation? I think we're
done here as you're just making contrary assertions and
this thread is gigantic.
\_ Do you want me to point you to any of the official
or unofficial statistics from the experts who measure
inflation? Inflation is low by any reasonable standard,
certainly lower than 5%/yr and probably about what
the BLS states as official inflation at ~2.5%/yr. I
don't think there is *no* inflation, but I think it
is very low and you haven't presented any evidence
otherwise, other than some anecdotal evidence. You are
the one making the unusual claim, you need to provide
proof of it. Wages have been going up less than prices,
but that is not the definition of "inflation."
I think you are just confused about what the term
means.
\_ I'm kinda too busy today to look up stuff for you
or talk about this more. Try googling for inflation
articles. Official government inflation figures are
not necessary reflective of real world inflation.
Inflation also doesn't act equally on all prices
and wages due to the nature of how the money supply
works. You also haven't pointed out any specific
error in the Ron Paul thing which I'd be interested
in. Also, look up inflation in China for example.
\_ Dude, I read The Economist every week. You are
simply speculating. Real inflation might be a
small amount more than reported inflation, but
not by much, at least not over the whole
economy. Ron Paul's desire to go back to the
Gold Standard marks him as a total fruitcake:
you lose control over your monetary policy in
such a monetary regime and would kill economic
growth to boot. No serious economist advocates
such a regime and would kill economic growth
to boot. No serious economist advocates
it, only a bunch of loons. I told you that
discussion is waaay to long and involved to go
into as an aside, but since you asked...
\_ Our monetary policy was primarily used to
allow massive government debt and price
bubbles. I fail to see how the current
situation is good in the long run.
Consumer debt is also the highest ever.
The US economy grew just fine before the
current system.
I also don't accept the "no serious expert"
line of reasoning.
The modern system is to conduct monetary
policy as if no recession can ever be allowed
to occur. But the reality is that this policy
is financed by endless expansion of debt and
inflation. Instead of natural corrective
recessions we are building up to some kind
of major crisis. It's like over-aggressive
fire prevention policy that ends up creating
a giant inferno when the forest gets too dry.
\_ Gloom and doomers are always with us.
We used to have much worse downturns, like
the Great Depression, the Panic of 1983 and
the Panic of 1837, before we went off the
Gold Standard. Only people with a serious
misunderstanding of history and economics
like Ron Paul want to bring back the
"good ole days" of 20%+ unemployment.
\_ The gold standard didn't cause the great
depression. It was irresponsible fiscal
policy. The central bank still has a lot
of power to affect money supply with a
gold standard. Prior to the Great
Depression in the 20's the Fed allowed
credit to grow beyond what could be
supported by reserves, much like the
mortgage crisis today. Result was the
the stock price bubble. When that crashed,
stock price bubble. When that crashed,
it also failed to act. The UK left the
gold standard in 1931, but it had already
been abandoned in WWI. The conditions
leading to the great depression and how
it was dealt with can't be chalked up
to the use of the gold standard.
Has any candidate taken a stance for the open buying
and selling of political favors?
\_ Open? Sure. Behind closed doors in smokey
rooms? Not a chance.
\_ I'm not sure you parsed my question properly.
\_ Uhm, maybe not.
\_ Clinton takes a lot of lobbyist money. Edwards
does not.
\_ I don't particularly like Clinton so I'm focusing
on Obama vs. Edwards. I'm personally a
conservative-leaning independent. Obama seems to
be in a better position to beat Hillary in the
primary. Have you considered that in your
electability calculations?
\_ I don't have any particular reason to
dislike Obama and I actually think he is
a pretty swell guy. I think he is less likely
to win in Nov, but I would certainly vote
for him against any GOP candidate I can
imagine. -Edwards' supporter
\_ I think that Edwards has a better chance in
the general election, but I would gladly
vote for either Edwards or Obama. -ES
It seems to me that Obama has done more in this area
than Edwards.
Obama had the wisdom not to authorize the Iraq war in
the first place.
Free trade is a mostly meaningless term to me. I
support it on textbook principle but the real world
isn't so simple.
\_ Obama didn't vote on the Iraq War as he was in
the Illinois State Senate at the time, I believe.
\_ Yeah. He spoke out against it in 2002 though:
http://tinyurl.com/3djwm5 (barackobama.com)
\_ "By contrast, I can't find a single example of any reporter or
commentator on the major networks or news outlets referring to the
Gallup poll at all, with the lone exception of UPI." Wait, I
thought UPI was the untrustworthy one with no original reporting?
\_ The Zogby poll was an internet poll? Was the number 1 canidate
Ron Paul? |