Berkeley CSUA MOTD:2005:June:17 Friday <Thursday, Saturday>
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2005/6/17-19 [Computer/SW/Languages/Java, Academia/Berkeley/CSUA/Motd] UID:38167 Activity:high
6/16    Do any of you essentially not read books any more?  I find it
        interesting there are people who are bright and by any measure
        successful who read maybe .5 - 1 book a year, e.g. my housemate
        has an MBA from MIT/Sloane and is essentially retired at 48.
        I'm not sure he has read 2 books in the 2yrs I've lived here.
        He does watch various news and informational TV programs so he's
        not clueless about the world. This does not include "HowTo" books.
        \_ I generally don't make time for reading, though several times
           a year I go crazy and read all the books I buy in my off periods.
           In general, though, the books I do try to read when I'm not devoting
           most of my time to it are difficult reads that I go through them
           very slowly.
        \_ I am neither bright nor successful, but I don't really read
           very much.  -- ilyas
        \_ I read a lot when commuting on BART.  Since I had to start driving,
           I've pretty much stopped.
           \- I'm not talking about very much. I mean zero. And I'm not
              talking about do you knock off a Shakespeare now and them ...
              I mean people who dont even read The Da Vinci Code or Michael
              Crichton or other "airplane pilp".
              Crichton or other "airplane pulp".
              \_ When I read, I tend to read classics or books of an
                 informational nature. Most newer fiction is not for me.
                 The last book I read was 'Dune' (again) about a year ago.
                 I am not sure that reading books (especially fiction)
                 indicates much of anything at our age. I used to read a
                 lot more when I was younger and had the time. FWIW, I
                 don't watch TV or go to the movies either. I do read the
                 newspapers and magazines like 'The Economist' religiously.
                 BTW, how come your housemate is a 'housemate' when he has a
                 good degree from a good school? Is he lazy?
                 \- I'm not suggesting anything about "our age" ... this was
                    asked on the soda MOTD and I'd think the soda motd has
                    a marginally higher literacy rate than "our age". Of course
                    people here are more likely to have the web suck up their
                    time. And I am not talking about reading but reading
                    books. A lot of these smart-but-non-readers read the
                    newspaper and other practical books like the Idiot's
                    Guide to DVD burning etc.
                    I dont understand the "why is your housemate a housemate"
                    part of the question.
                    \_ What I mean by 'our age' is that a kid who reads a
                       lot is probably bright (not sure about which is the
                       cause and which is the effect). I do not think this
                       is true once you reach adulthood. If someone reads
                       10 bodice rippers a week does that imply anything about
                       his or her intellect or lack thereof? 'Number of
                       books read' by itself is meaningless at this stage of
                       intellectual development. Someone who reads the NYT
                       and Wall Street Journal every day is quite likely
                       doing more for themselves than the bodice ripper
                       person. As for your housemate, I am wondering why
                       he doesn't have his own place when he has a graduate
                       degree from MIT. That sounds rather odd. I'd worry
                       about that more than about how many books he reads.
                       \- I was not the one equating "reads" with
                          intelligence. If anything I was saying that I
                          found it odd a fair number of pretty intelligent
                          people *dont* read ... or if you go to their homes
                          you will not see 10 books. I agree a lot of people
                          who read pulp somehow think that is supirior to
                          wantching TV, when they are essentially the same
                          thing ... and then there are people who watch a
                          HISTORY CHANNEL show on Rome and think that is
                          50% of the way to reading R. SYME: THE ROMAN
                          REVOLUTION when it is closer to like 3%. Re: house-
                          mate: he owns multiple millions of dollars in
                          real estate. I can only assume he lets me live here
                          because of my wit and charm, since he clearly doesnt
                          need my meagre rent.
        \_ I haven't read a book 'for fun' since I graduated several years ago.
           Reading is on my 'todo' list but never rises to the top.  I have
           other things I'd rather be doing or need to be doing.
           \_ Interesting.  I didn't have time to read at college, but now
              that I work I read voraciously.
        \_ Before to law school I was reading about 1 book every 2 weeks
           or so (mostly non-fiction - science/history/&c.). Now I pretty
           much only read my casebooks or related material which amounts
           to around 300 pages a week (or more).
        \_ I had pretty much stopped reading for pleasure by my junior year as
           an undergrad.  Then I married a librarian.  I read like crazy now
           (and keep having to get more bookshelves).  -emarkp
                \_ Why does being related to a librarian always make people
                   read more? Is it because they bring home books, or that
                   they get good recommendations at work, or that they read
                   a lot themselves and pass the book on, or what? I've known
                   several sons/daughters of librarians, and they're all
                   avid readers.
                   \_ If you didn't love books, you wouldn't become a librarian
                   \_ Speaking as the son of a librarian, I think the
                      factors are mostly envionmental.  My mother read to
                      me a lot as a child.  There are always books around
                      the house.  We went to the library (as a family)
                      weekly.  We got books as presents.  Mom was always
                      reading books. etc. -jrleek
                   \_ In my case, she had a lot of great books that I'd never
                      read.  Now we recommend books to each other. -emarkp
        \_ No, we're too busy reading motd. =) But seriously, I read newspaper
           and website for things that used to be available on printed media.
        \_ Sometimes books have a hard time competing for my attention with
           all the other stuff there is to do... I don't read as much as I
           would have liked. I occasionally get into a mode of reading a number
           of books. If I get "stalled" in a book it tends to kill my reading
           habit for a while and I'll go play videogames instead or whatever.
           I stalled out of a few books lately when I tried reading more
           classic literature... I made it halfway through Karamazov before
           giving up. Master and Margarita didn't capture me after a partial
           attempt. For Whom the Bell Tolls I picked up after really enjoying
           The Sun Also Rises, but I kind of trailed off halfway through that
           also. I'm 3/4 through The Iliad translated by Robert Fagles, which
           doesn't seem as poetic as whatever unknown translation I read
           a little bit of in college. And the storyline gets a little bogged
           down with the endless battling and slaughter.
           I hope to just get those two done and then stick with lighter
           stuff for a while. I had fun reading short stories since they
           can be done in one sitting. Hard Boiled detective stories and Fritz
           Leiber's Lankhmar tales were the latest I read.
           Lately I've just been listening to audiobooks while I fall asleep or
           over breakfast... at least I get through stuff that way.
           \- imho, the iliad is not something you can read without "guidance".
              best is to read it in a class with a good teacher, but even
              reading a good introduction may be enough. i say this for two
              reasons: 1. it is a very "alien" work so you are likely to
              arrive at some incorrect interpreations unless you are waved
              off [like say with the metrical rather than descrptive function
              of the ephithets] 2. it is an amazingly complicated work and
              there are some structures/methods that you'll need some
              examples pointed out ... after you know what to look for,
              there are some structures/methods that you'll need some to be
              pointed out ... after you know what to look for,
              then you can look for these on your own [like some details of
              "ring composition", or the way HELEN is described in the
              famous "Teikoskopia"].
              \_ You're probably right... this book does have a relatively
                 long introductory/preface section and appendices etc. and
                 I did have part of the Iliad as class material at Cal (but
                 I really bailed on that class and I think the focus was
                 not on the literature but the mythological ideas). It does
                 describe at least some of what you're talking about. I have
                 describe at least some of what you're talking about. I
                 have to be in the proper mood for it... I also have the
                 Odyssey from the same guy. I did not compare translations
                 beforehand so I kind of wonder if I'm missing out on something
                 But it's hard to say what the "real" approach should be. The
                 guy of course argues his way best captures the feel. Oh well.
                 \_ psb is right.  It's not just a matter of being in the
                    'mood,' you need a lot of background on their society, the
                    way they thought, their entire moral and metaphysical
                    framework was completely different from ours.
                    \_ I meant in the mood to enjoy reading it. This motd
                       stuff got me into it again for now...
                    \- "moral and metaphysical framework" nicely captures
                       what is at issue in my first point about the "alieness"
                       of the "world of odysseus". but the structural elements
                       unique to oral composition [the parry-lord-parry stuff]
                       in general or homeric epic in particular [like the
                       telescoping of the 10 years of the conflict into the
                       short period covered by the iliad] is a different set
                       of issues. in fact there is one more, which is the
                       philological ... like greek language has "aspect"...
                       but that stuff is beyond me. and i think that has
                       \_ I wish schoen@@csua would login and post.  He would
                          know more about this I bet. -- ilyas
                          \- are you a russian? doesnt the russian language
                             have notoriously difficult aspect in addition to
                             tense? then this may be easier for you to follow.
                             the closest i've read to a philology heavy book
                             is G. Nagy: The Best of the Achaeans. very good.
                             \_ I think aspect distinctions exist in English,
                                too.  English just lacks a general mechanism.
                                I don't know how sophisticated greek aspect is
                                compared to russian aspect. -- ilyas
              I didn't know what aspect was, so I found this elucidating: _/
    http://www.absoluteastronomy.com/encyclopedia/G/Gr/Grammatical_aspect.htm
              http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grammatical_aspect
                        \-yes that was sort of my point. some of this stuff
                          is not like "oh yes the clever boy in the english
                          class got more out of reading Ozymandias than i
                          did" ... there is no hope you will get some of this
                          stuff because it just doesnt exist in your brain,
                          it's not a matter of insight and figuruing it out.
                       diminishing returns for a "normal person". i note that
                       even 5th cent BC athens is much less "alien" and
                       easier to understand. with some exceptions like the
                       Oresteia.
                       \-BTW, I like the Lattimore trans the most probably
                         but I think Fitzgerald and Fagles are reasonable.
                       \-BTW, I like the Lattimore trans the most, but
                         I think Fitzgerald and Fagles are reasonable.
                         Perhaps the 100s of pages of Fagles cant compare
                         to the "highlights" you remember from college.
                         if you want to really go for the poetic one, look
                         at the pope translation. not user-friendly, tho.
                         FACTOID: T.E. Lawrence (of Arabia) did a prose
                         trans. of the Iliad and Odyssey.
                        \_ That may have been it; I will look into it next time
                           I'm in a book place. There are a couple of passages
                           I will know it by. I found Pope online and this too:
                       http://www.perseus.tufts.edu/cgi-bin/ptext?lookup=Hom.+Il.+1.1
                           That last version has some ridiculous (IMO)
                           Shakespeare dialogue like "wherefore art thou" that
                           seems out of place. The Fagles stuff is certainly
                           very readable; I guess it seems too casual at times.
                           \- Butler->ass
                           \- Butler -> ass
2005/6/17-20 [Computer/SW/Apps/Media] UID:38168 Activity:nil
6/17    What are the pros and cons for upgrading to Win Media 10? I'm
        pretty happy with 9 and I'm hesitant to upgrade anything M$
        \_ I think Win Media Player 10 came with a new codec which you
           might need in the future.  Personally, I find v9 to v10 is
           not as painful as v6 to v7, as v9 is pretty bloated at first
           place.
2005/6/17-18 [Transportation/PublicTransit] UID:38169 Activity:moderate
6/17    In response to this:
                      "Speaking as someone who gets around without a car,
                       you're wrong.  The combined Bay Area transit miasma
                       is one of the most expensive and least effective
                       systems in the country, and it shows no signs of
                       abating as the biggest, most expensive, and least
                       effective part of it (BART) keeps sucking up
                       all the mind share and funding.  Woo hoo, a billion
                       dollars for an extension to Warm Springs, that'll
                       help!  -tom"
        See "BART named #1 Transit System in U.S."
        http://www.bart.gov/news/features/features20040824.asp
        \_ The APTA awards are self-nominated and self-congratulatory; they
           mean nothing.  -tom
           \_ Reference please?
              \_ http://www.apta.com/services/awards.
                 And your above URL, which lauds BART's airport extension
                 that came in 2 years late, more than a billion dollars
                 over budget, and has less than half the ridership BART
                 was projecting.  -tom
                 \_ $1 billion over budget?  WHat was the budget?
                    Although, since it's basically the only part of BART I
                    ride regularly, I like it anyway.
                    \_ The budget was originally $1.2 billion.  Actually,
                       if I recall correctly the budget was $700 million for
                       a multi-modal station west of 101, where you'd get
                       the monorail, but BART insisted on going directly
                       to the airport, which had an estimated cost of $500
                       million more, and made the trip slower.  And it
                       wound up costing over $2 billion.  -tom
                 \_ Hmm, people think BART sucks because they don't ride it,
                    and people don't ride BART because they think it sucks.
                    \_ People ride BART when it's an easy hop from it to their
                       destination, and when their destination has high parking
                       or toll costs.  Other than that, its integration with
                       the rest of public transport, and the imbalance in funds
                       making for lower quality in the rest of public transport
                       makes BART suck.
                 \_ Hmm, people think BART sucks because people don't ride it,
                    and people don't ride BAR because they think BART sucks.
                    and people don't ride BART because they think it sucks.
                       \_ I see many bus lines stopping at every BART station.
                          SF MUNI's light rail also stops at BART stations.
                          And there are free BART shuttles to employers.  (I
                          used to take the one going from Hayward to Foster
                          City.)  How is it not integrated with the rest of
                          public transport?  Suggestions for improvement?
                          \_ Take a trip to Singapore and experience the
                             MRT system. They use a single RFID card to
                             deduct money each time you enter and leave
                             a train station or bus anywhere in Singapore.
                             That doesn't work with BART,MUNI, AC Transit
                             Cal Train, etc.
                             \- SINGAPORE IS THE STANDARD:
                    http://home.lbl.gov:8080/~psb/Singapore/StandardCard12.jpg
                                Of course there is also this aspect of SIN:
                    http://home.lbl.gov:8080/~psb/Singapore/ForeignWorker34.jpg
                          \_ There is no "transit pass"; if you want to take
                             AC Transit to BART to MUNI you need to pay three
                             different times.  BART, when partnering with
                             other transit agencies, insists on BART service
                             being offered at something like 90% of full price,
                             which makes monthly passes pointless.   -tom
                        \_ That is not the way politics works. BART is nice
                           so more middle class people ride transit, so more
                           money is allocated to transit overall. The money
                           would go to freeways instead.
                           \_ Obviously, this hasn't worked, as nearly
                              all the money which goes to "transit" goes
                              straight down BART's money pit.  Been to
                              Warm Springs lately?  -tom
           \_ NYC's MTA won the same award in 2001.
              \_ I was there in 2000 and I didn't like MTA at all.
                 Trains are slow, mainly because they stop every two
                 blocks all the way from Coney Island until
                 Manhattan. Seats are not very comfortable. Stations
                 are dirty and ugly, water leaking from the ceilings
                 in some underground stations. I thought BART was so much
                 better than that.
                 \_ Exactly.  The award means nothing.
                 \_ BART was designed by people who think public transit
                    should be like Disneyland.  -tom
                    \_ OOC, if you were designing public transit, how would you
                       do it?  --dbushong
                       \_ UBAHN! The TUBE!  There are successful models the
                          whole world over.  We'd rather subsidize the auto
                          industry than have good public transit.
                          \_ The Tube?  The Londoners I know bitch about the
                             Underground every goddamn day.  It's really just
                             grass-is-greener syndrome, they have no idea
                             how good they have it.
                       \_ I would be a lot more careful about things like
                          survey results and customer satisfaction.  Cushy
                          chairs may increase customer satisfaction, but if
                          they don't increase ridership, the money spent on
                          cushy chairs should be spent somewhere else.
                          I would build in incentives to use the system
                          a lot (monthly passes at significant discounts).
                          I would build it so transit users are prioritized
                          over auto drivers (instead of transit users
                          subsidizing thousands of free parking spaces as
                          they do on BART).  I would notice that the most
                          successful stations are the ones that are located
                          in neighberhoods, not the ones that are located
                          in the middle of acres of parking lots.  I would
                          use standard rail (unlike BART) to allow for
                          flexibility in use of the right-of-way, and lower
                          build and replacement costs.  For long-haul runs,
                          I would use trains which are fast.  I would
                          make runs like Dublin to Bay Fair short shuttles,
                          rather than redesign the entire schedule (poorly)
                          just because two stations were added.
                          For example.  -tom
              \_ I was there in 1999 and thought it worked pretty well, but I
                 was only in Manhattan/Staten Island.  I rode VTA (mostly bus)
                 and CalTrain in the south bay in 1997-2000 and it was
                 miserable.
                \_ that's nice.  tom is still right.
2005/6/17 [Politics/Foreign/MiddleEast/Iraq] UID:38170 Activity:kinda low 63%like:38179
6/17    I've read the Lancet study (Oct 2004) and it does seem to have some
        problems.  In particular:
        - the "100,000 dead" number comes from a 95% conficence interval
          spanning 8,000 to 194,000.  Pretty big range there.
        - "Interviewers were initially reluctant to ask to see death
          certificates because this might have implied they did not believe the
          respondents, perhaps triggering violence. Thus, a compromise was
          reached for which interviewers would attempt to confirm at least two
          deaths per cluster."
        - "We think it is unlikely that deaths were falsely recorded.
          Interviewers also believed that in the Iraqi culture it was unlikely
          for respondents to fabricate deaths.
          "It is possible that deaths were not reported, because families might
          wish to conceal the death or because neonatal deaths might go without
          mention."
        - "When violent deaths were attributed to a faction in the conflict or
          to criminal forces, no further investigation into the death was made
          to respect the privacy of the family and for the safety of the
          interviewers.
        - "Of these, two were attributed to anti-coalition forces, two were of
          unknown origin, seven were criminal murders, and one was from the
          previous regime during the invasion."
          This suggests that violent crime was mixed in with war-related deaths.
        - The slate article (http://slate.msn.com/id/2108887 that criticizes
          the study points right to the biggest problem: the cluster
          reassignments:
          "During September, 2004, many roads were not under the control of the
          Government of Iraq or coalition forces.  Local police checkpoints
          were perceived by team members as target identification screens for
          rebel groups. To lessen risks to investigators, we sought to minimise
          travel distances and the number of Governorates to visit, while still
          sampling from all regions of the country. We did this by clumping
          pairs of Governorates."
          So their random sample is reduced dramatically.

          Like all statistial analyses, the results can be hugely varied
          depending on methodology.  I see the Lancet study as seriously flawed
          and the claim of 100,000 extra dead invalid.  See the slate article
          for a link to the .pdf of the study and read it yourself. -emarkp
        \_ emarkp, i think you need to be a little less verbose.
           \_ So does the Lancet when they're making up numbers.  etc.  -emarkp
          \_ the death amount is 40k to 150k at a 85% confidence interval
             and 60k to 120k at a 75% confidence interval. The report did
             not claim that all ~100k were killed by American action, on the
             contrary, many were known to have died due to the unstable
             security situation. If the study is so flawed, why doesn't anyone
             else do one to debunk it. We know the Pentagon has its own
             numbers, why don't they release them?
             \_ I think these numbers: http://www.iraqbodycount.net
                are more reliable. -emarkp
2005/6/17-18 [Politics/Domestic/911, Politics/Domestic] UID:38171 Activity:nil
6/16    Red Cross joins AI:
        http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1292692/posts
        \_ What are they talking about?  The report last year?
           God, freepers are unintelligible
           \_ I think he is saying that the Red Cross has joined
              Amnesty International in stating that the prison
              conditions for terror suspects is less than humane.
              \_ And is there some new story?  Or is this moaning about
                 the report from last year?
                 \_ I think it is just moaning. The best thing to do
                    is to ignore the weirdos (on both sides) and hope
                    they will get bored and go away.
2005/6/17-18 [Recreation/Humor] UID:38172 Activity:nil
6/16    Heh, political cartoon about "Live 8"
        http://www.filibustercartoons.com
        \_ Just curious, does this site get a lot of play on freeper?
           \_ I have no idea.  I don't read free republic I think this
              site is funny, so I check it regularly.  -op
              \_ With all due respect, I find it about as informed and
                 funny, in its intended sense, as freeper.
                 \_ That's fine, don't read it.  Political cartoons are
                    rarely funny to everybody.  You notice I didn't post
                    it as an IP address to try and fool you or something.
                    \_ And I appreciate that, I truly do.
2005/6/17-18 [Politics/Foreign/MiddleEast/Iraq] UID:38173 Activity:nil 80%like:38177
6/17    And now we learn that we lied about napalm use in iraq
        http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/story.jsp?story=647397
        \_ Oh no! We used a weapon in war!?! Next time we shoudl limit
           ourselves to just harsh words. Then we can expect the enemy to
           honor the same code and limit themselves as well.
2005/6/17-18 [Reference/Law/Court] UID:38174 Activity:nil
6/17    Okay, wait, lemme see if I got this straight.  A lesbian couple in
        Vermont gets a civil union.  Later, they get a divorce.  An entirely
        unrelated heterosexual married couple in Iowa then SUES the couple for
        harming their marriage?  HUH?  Have we entered BIZARRO-WORLD?!
        http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050617/ap_on_re_us/lesbian_divorce
        \_ I read this and didn't see a single mention of vermont. Granted,
           it's still a retarded case and thus a funny article.
           \_ "[...] The two were joined in March 2002 in Bolton, Vt.,
              according to Brown's divorce petition."
        \_ Welcome to the country of lawsuits.
2005/6/17-20 [Computer/SW/OS/VM] UID:38175 Activity:nil
6/17    I'm trying to use VMware Tools to "shrink" my Fedora Core 3 partition.
        Note that VMware "shrink" means to claim space not used by the
        vm so that the host will have extra space. This is important
        because when you create a big file in VMware and then delete it,
        the host still keeps the big file and wastes space. My problem is
        that VMware tool only recognizes /boot as something that is
        shrinkable while it doesn't know anything about /.
        How do I shink /? The following is df -k if you're curious:
        /dev/mapper/VolGroup00-LogVol00
                      81892056   4168044  73564116   6% /
        /dev/sda1     101086     12286     83581  13% /boot
        \_ ext{2,3}resize, then run VMware tools?
2005/6/17-20 [Computer/Networking] UID:38176 Activity:nil
6/17    Dumb question, in Linux, how do you find out your current IP?
        \_ ifconfig
        \_ nslookup <hostname>
2005/6/17 [Politics/Foreign/MiddleEast/Iraq] UID:38177 Activity:nil 80%like:38173
6/17    And now we learn that we lied about napalm use in fallujah
        http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/story.jsp?story=647397
2005/6/17 [Recreation/Dating] UID:38178 Activity:nil
6/17    What's your favorite hobby?  (no ref to sex, please)
        \_ Yermom.
        \_ Yermom jokes.
        \_ \"sex"
        \_ &sex
2005/6/17 [Reference/Military, Politics/Foreign/MiddleEast/Iraq] UID:38179 Activity:high 63%like:38170
6/17    [Hey, I was challenged to read this.  I did and here are my comments.
        Please don't delete it for at least a day or so.]
        I've read the Lancet study (Oct 2004) and it does seem to have some
        problems.  In particular:
        - the "100,000 dead" number comes from a 95% conficence interval
          spanning 8,000 to 194,000.  Pretty big range there.
        - "Interviewers were initially reluctant to ask to see death
          certificates because this might have implied they did not believe the
          respondents, perhaps triggering violence. Thus, a compromise was
          reached for which interviewers would attempt to confirm at least two
          deaths per cluster."
        - "We think it is unlikely that deaths were falsely recorded.
          Interviewers also believed that in the Iraqi culture it was unlikely
          for respondents to fabricate deaths.
          "It is possible that deaths were not reported, because families might
          wish to conceal the death or because neonatal deaths might go without
          mention."
        - "When violent deaths were attributed to a faction in the conflict or
          to criminal forces, no further investigation into the death was made
          to respect the privacy of the family and for the safety of the
          interviewers.
        - "Of these, two were attributed to anti-coalition forces, two were of
          unknown origin, seven were criminal murders, and one was from the
          previous regime during the invasion."
          This suggests that violent crime was mixed in with war-related deaths.
        - The slate article (http://slate.msn.com/id/2108887 that criticizes
          the study points right to the biggest problem: the cluster
          reassignments:
          "During September, 2004, many roads were not under the control of the
          Government of Iraq or coalition forces.  Local police checkpoints
          were perceived by team members as target identification screens for
          rebel groups. To lessen risks to investigators, we sought to minimise
          travel distances and the number of Governorates to visit, while still
          sampling from all regions of the country. We did this by clumping
          pairs of Governorates."
          So their random sample is reduced dramatically.

          Like all statistial analyses, the results can be hugely varied
          depending on methodology.  I see the Lancet study as seriously flawed
          and the claim of 100,000 extra dead invalid.  See the slate article
          for a link to the .pdf of the study and read it yourself. -emarkp
        \- for a long comment like this, why dont you put a link to
           ~ping/lancet.blurb. people can put short followups here.
        I've read the Lancet study (Oct 2004) and it does seem to have some
        problems.  In particular:
        \- Why dont you move long comments like to an external file?
        - the "100,000 dead" number comes from a 95% conficence interval
          spanning 8,000 to 194,000.  Pretty big range there.
        - "Interviewers were initially reluctant to ask to see death
          certificates because this might have implied they did not believe the
          respondents, perhaps triggering violence. Thus, a compromise was
          reached for which interviewers would attempt to confirm at least two
          deaths per cluster."
        - "We think it is unlikely that deaths were falsely recorded.
          Interviewers also believed that in the Iraqi culture it was unlikely
          for respondents to fabricate deaths.
          "It is possible that deaths were not reported, because families might
          wish to conceal the death or because neonatal deaths might go without
          mention."
        - "When violent deaths were attributed to a faction in the conflict or
          to criminal forces, no further investigation into the death was made
          to respect the privacy of the family and for the safety of the
          interviewers.
        - "Of these, two were attributed to anti-coalition forces, two were of
          unknown origin, seven were criminal murders, and one was from the
          previous regime during the invasion."
          This suggests that violent crime was mixed in with war-related deaths.
        - The slate article (http://slate.msn.com/id/2108887 that criticizes
          the study points right to the biggest problem: the cluster
          reassignments:
          "During September, 2004, many roads were not under the control of the
          Government of Iraq or coalition forces.  Local police checkpoints
          were perceived by team members as target identification screens for
          rebel groups. To lessen risks to investigators, we sought to minimise
          travel distances and the number of Governorates to visit, while still
          sampling from all regions of the country. We did this by clumping
          pairs of Governorates."
          So their random sample is reduced dramatically.

          Like all statistial analyses, the results can be hugely varied
          depending on methodology.  I see the Lancet study as seriously flawed
          and the claim of 100,000 extra dead invalid.  See the slate article
          for a link to the .pdf of the study and read it yourself. -emarkp
        \_ emarkp, i think you need to be a little less verbose.
           \_ So does the Lancet when they're making up numbers.  etc.  -emarkp
          \_ the death amount is 40k to 150k at a 85% confidence interval
             and 60k to 120k at a 75% confidence interval. The report did
             not claim that all ~100k were killed by American action, on the
             contrary, many were known to have died due to the unstable
             security situation. If the study is so flawed, why doesn't anyone
             else do one to debunk it. We know the Pentagon has its own
             numbers, why don't they release them?
             \_ I think these numbers: http://www.iraqbodycount.net
                are more reliable. -emarkp
                \_"Our maximum therefore refers to reported deaths - which
                   can only be a sample of true deaths unless one assumes that
                   every civilian death has been reported. It is likely that
                   many if not most civilian casualties will go unreported by
                   the media. That is the sad nature of war." -FAQ from that
                   site. So they are a very reliable count of what they are
                   counting, which is known to be an underestimate of the
                   total number of people killed.
                   \_ Unless deaths are over reported. -emarkp
2005/6/17-18 [Politics/Domestic/RepublicanMedia] UID:38180 Activity:nil
6/17    Bill O'Reilly's Videogate
        http://www.perrspectives.com/blog/archives/000195.htm
2005/6/17-20 [Computer/SW/OS/Linux] UID:38181 Activity:nil
6/17    What's a good way to learn about Linux build, modules (insmod, lsmod,
        etc), how to compile, how to add/subtract stuff, grub, differences
        between a *.o and a *.ko module, significance of
        /lib/mmodules/<version>/kernel/* ? Thanks.              -newbie
        \_ Pick one that looks fun, start playing with it, break it, reinstall
           it, ask someone where the manuals are, try to figure out your
           answers from there, then don't hesitate to ask stupid questions,
           look at http://www.linux.org/dist for info on various distros,
           find a project that looks interesting on sourceforge, download it,
           try to compile it, look at http://www.linux.org/lessons/beginner ,
           ask more stupid questions, use google a lot.  Have fun.  -John
2017/09/20 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
9/20    
Berkeley CSUA MOTD:2005:June:17 Friday <Thursday, Saturday>