Berkeley CSUA MOTD:2003:December:27 Saturday <Friday, Sunday>
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2003/12/27 [Academia/Berkeley] UID:11596 Activity:moderate
12/26   Bears rock.
        \_ Little more caution from you, that is no trinket you carry.
           I carry nothing.
                \_ Indeed.
                   \_ Hmm, this is a new one. Moving my "Indeed" comment to
                      refer to another post.
2003/12/27 [Finance/Investment] UID:11597 Activity:high
12/26   If the economy is so bad, how come NASDAQ has gone from 1300 to
        nearly 2000 in less than 1 year?
        \_ Little do you know that you're still losing money. The USD
           has gone down against every other major currency.
           \_ LOL I'm not going to denominate my NASDAQ earnings in
              Euro.
              \_ Lots of markets around the globe beat NASDAQ handily,
                 partly due to the sinking dollar, and they still seem
                 more reasonably valued than the NASDAQ.  Your loss
                 my gain.  Hopefully the dollar's decline is gradual and
                 under control, without any panic setting in.  Otherwise,
                 the NASDAQ may crash like in 1987.
                 \_ Bullshit.  Name the foreign markets you're investing in.
                    \_ Japan, India, China and satellites, Eastern Europe
                       and Russia.  US was a good investment back in
                       Oct02 and Mar03, but less so now, but I still
                       have some US stocks.  Feel free to compare charts
                       of Nasdaq vs MJFOX (Japan fund), IFN (India fund),
                       EUROX (Eastern Europe / Russia fund),
                       MAPTX (Asia Pacific ex Japan fund), TGLDX (gold
                       and precious metals fund) or BHP (commodity proxy).
                       \_ I didn't ask you to look at http://cnnfn.com and find
                          indexes that have done better.  I want to know what
                          you're invested in.   You are *not* invested in 6
                          different foreign markets including gold funds since
                          10/2.
                          \_ I have all of the above.  And no,
                             I didn't have all of them since 10/2.  I was
                             more heavily weighted in US before the middle of
                          \_ Why not?  I have all of the above.  And no,
                             this year (Nasdaq had better valuation
                             then and did relatively better first half of
                             this year compared to many of the above funds,
                             etc., but relatively worse in the past few
                             months).  Again check the charts.
                       \_ This is another investor who pulled most of my
                          money out of the US 18 months ago. My money
                          is in EWG (Germany), EWZ (Brazil), ETINX (E*Trade
                          International Fund), HMC (Honda), QQQ (Nasdaq 100),
                          STZ (Australian Beer Maker), TTF (Thai Fund), EWH
                          (Hong Kong), EWH (Singapore), EWJ (Japan) and ASL
                          (South African Gold producer). All have beaten the
                          S&P 500. My 401k is 50% OARIX. And yes, I pulled
                          my money out because of the Administration's
                       have some US stocks.
                             I didn't have them since 10/2.  I was more
                             heavily weighted in US before the middle of
                             this year (Nasdaq had better valuation
                             then and did relatively better compared
                             to many of the above funds, etc., but
                             relatively worse in the past few months).
                          policies.
        \_ Cause stocks were cheap back in Oct02 and Mar03, and there
           were few other places to put your money.  Also, because the
           stock market is good at predicting the future, and it likes
           Bush Jr's stimulation plan, at least in the short term.  But
           the guy above is right about US dollar's decline.  It may
           lead to inflation soon.  There is already a hidden inflation
           in terms of high housing, metals and commodity prices.
           Inflation in prices of everyday good may follow soon.
           \_ Here's why you don't get your economic advice from the motd.
              The dollar's decline and every other economic indicator is
              pointing to DEflation, *not* INflation.  Sheesh.  Inflation has
              never been lower in your young life.  If it rises a few points
              it will still be lower than it has been in many years.
              \_ Nah, dollar decline implies foreign goods and commodities
                 become more expensive implies inflation.  Other factors
                 such as productivity gains, cwappy economy, china are
                 mitigating the effects of inflation so far, but it is not
                 due to the declining dollar.  Inflation is not a good
                 thing, but it is bearable in a booming economy.  What you
                    \_ It seems that in addition to econ 101, you need
                       logic 101.
                    \_ This only works if US consumers respond to the
                       increased price of foreign goods and therefore
                       buy less. This has not worked in the auto market,
                       I am not sure it will in other markets either.
                 don't want is a cwappy economy combined with inflation.
                 You need to retake economic 101.
                 don't want is a cwappy economy combined with inflation.
                 You need to retake econ 101.
                 \_ No, no, no, a declining dollar makes our goods and services
                    cheaper for foreigners to buy and increases exports so it
                    is cheaper to hire American workers which makes more money
                    flow through our economy instead of our welfare system and
                    brings foreign investment here as well which has the same
                    effect.  You need to retake econ P.
                    \_ It seems that in addition to econ 101, you need
                       logic 101.
                    \_ This only works if US consumers respond to the
                       increased price of foreign goods and therefore
                       buy less. This has not worked in the auto market,
                       I am not sure it will in other markets either.
        \_ Here is my question, as I am worried.  We (USA) is relying on
           foreign money for financing our account (trade) deficit as well
           as budget deficit.  If the dollar continue to tank, that means
           at some point, these foreign governments will stop buying
           dollar (there is no point to buy a current which is constantly
           decline in value, as it means losing money).  Once they doing that
           we will be forced to raise long term interest rate to attract
           more foreign influx of currencies.  That would kill off the
           economic recovery which my job is depend upon.
           This sounds like a dooms day scenario, I am pretty sure I am
           wrong.  But, where is the fault my logic?
              they've learned Engrish, and deserve the rewards they get.
              \_ Sorry, sir, but your grammar is flawed.  No job for you.
           \_ The flaw in your logic is fundamental.  You have taken the time
              to learn something about economics, and presumably computer
              science at this great institution, but never bothered to learn
              how tense and number are used in the English language.  Of these
              three skills: economics, technical computer skills, and
              English language communication skills, which do you think is
              most likely to help you keep your job?  Or get a new job?
              or build a business that creates new jobs in America?
              My contempt for you is not xenophobia.  There vast numbers of
              people who somehow manage to operate profesionally in a language
              that is not their native language.  Those people work harder and
              are more people oriented than those who choose to give up once
              they've learned Engrish, and deserve the rewards they get.
              \_ Sorry, sir, but your grammar is flawed.  No job for you.
              \_ "There vast numbers of" stuck right out.  The flaw in your
                 grammar is fundamental.  (hah!)
           \_ Ok, now here is someone with a clue even if he doesn't know it
              unlike Mr. "the sky is falling" Inflation Monger above.  Yes,
              this is a very real thing to be concerned with.  One possibility
              is that as the European economies continue to slide and crash
              and ours continues to pull out of it, the USD will look like a
              huge bargain.  Then you'll see the Euro crash and the dollar
              rise.  Then the worry is that if it rises too fast our exports
              will suffer and there'll be even more reason to outsource to
              the third world.
              \_ That's my hope too, but why would foreigners want the
                 dollar?  Stocks are already fully valued, treasuries
                 pay a pittance.  There are better investments elsewhere.
                       US dollars in asian governments' hands, the stake
                 Big budget and trade deficits don't help.  High
                 government (federal and state), corporate and personal
                       US dollars in asian government hands, the stake
                 debt levels don't help either.  Neither does the
                 out-sourcing trend and unemployment.  On the plus side
                 it is in many of the foreign goverments' interest to
                 let the dollar slide gradually and not in a panic, so
                 they continue to buy some dollar, and pray that the
                 falling dollar will improve US competitiveness and
                 then its economy.  This presents an opportunity
                 to make some profit off the falling dollar, or at
                 least not let it hit you on the head.
                                                    - inflation monger
                 \_ certain things such as political stability and military
                    might seem to be undervalued.  US currencies are still
                    the universal standard in times of crisis.
                    \_ You are right, but that's about the only thing it
                       has going for it.  Don't exploit a good thing
                       too much.  Besides with like 2 trillion worth of
                       US dollars in asian governments' hands, the stake
                       and risk is very high for them.  And in times
                       of crisis, there is always gold, and euro is
                       now a reasonable alternative.
                       \_ Except that the EU is the last gasp of the dead
                          European empires of the past.  They're only trying to
                          regain lost glory.  There was a time when almost all
                          of them had more powerful economies than the US.  Now
                          it takes all of them together to get into that scale
                          and they're still not making it.  Europe will
                          continue it's slow decline into obscurity until it
                          one day becomes nothing more than history book
                          material for American grad students.  They're dying
              \_ That's my hope too, but why would foreigners want the
                 dollar?  Stocks are already fully valued, treasuries
                 pay a pittance.
                       and risk is very high for them.  And in times
                       of crisis, there is always gold, and euro is
                       now a reasonable alternative.
                          European empires of the past.  They're only trying to
                          regain lost glory.  There was a time when almost all
                          of them had more powerful economies than the US.  Now
                          it takes all of them together to get into that scale
                          and they're still not making it.  Europe will
                          continue it's slow decline into obscurity until it
                          one day becomes nothing more than history book
                          material for American grad students.  They're dying
                          and they know it.  That's hardly a good long term
                          investment.  It's ok for now because what you're
                          doing is riding up the curve a bit as they improve
                          effeciency but that's just a blip up on the long
                          and painful trend downwards.
                          and they know it.  That's hardly a good long term
                          investment.  It's ok for now because what you're
                          doing is riding up the curve a bit as they improve
                          effeciency but that's just a blip up on the long
                          and painful trend downwards.
                          \_ This is not true. Look at the comparative
                             performance of any European economy vs.
                             the US since WWII. Look at GDP/capita
                             vs. the US in Germany, Norway, Luxemborg, Italy
                             over the last 20 years. Look at productivity
                             per hour worked vs the US today. EU has been
                             long outstripping the US in gains per worker
                             and continues to do so. The US has gained in
                             total population, masking this gain, but all
                             that means is that the US is increasingly a
                             source of cheap labor.
                             \_ Heh.  It's easy to outstrip US since WWII if
                                you were starting from a FLAMING WRECK that
                                was Europe back then.  "Fastest growing" is
                                a crock of an indicator.
                                \_ I think demographics are working in the
                                   favor of the US in the long run though,
                                   so I agree with you there. The US is
                                   in almost as bad a shape though. I think
                                   it is smart to invest in the economies
                                   that are still going to be growing in
                                   50 years.
2003/12/27 [Politics/Domestic/Election, Politics/Domestic/President/Bush] UID:11598 Activity:nil
12/26   The First Amendment died earlier this month.
        http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1046839/posts?page=1,50
        \_ What, you  missed this?  Yes, this ruling by the SCOTUS was a direct
           restraint of political speech.  It cuts to the heart of the 1st
           Amendment.
        \_ It took me a while to come around on this but I figured out a while
           ago that this is bullshit and the SC was wrong.  I originally
           thought it was a good idea but no longer.
Berkeley CSUA MOTD:2003:December:27 Saturday <Friday, Sunday>