12/26 If the economy is so bad, how come NASDAQ has gone from 1300 to
nearly 2000 in less than 1 year?
\_ Little do you know that you're still losing money. The USD
has gone down against every other major currency.
\_ LOL I'm not going to denominate my NASDAQ earnings in
Euro.
\_ Lots of markets around the globe beat NASDAQ handily,
partly due to the sinking dollar, and they still seem
more reasonably valued than the NASDAQ. Your loss
my gain. Hopefully the dollar's decline is gradual and
under control, without any panic setting in. Otherwise,
the NASDAQ may crash like in 1987.
\_ Bullshit. Name the foreign markets you're investing in.
\_ Japan, India, China and satellites, Eastern Europe
and Russia. US was a good investment back in
Oct02 and Mar03, but less so now, but I still
have some US stocks. Feel free to compare charts
of Nasdaq vs MJFOX (Japan fund), IFN (India fund),
EUROX (Eastern Europe / Russia fund),
MAPTX (Asia Pacific ex Japan fund), TGLDX (gold
and precious metals fund) or BHP (commodity proxy).
\_ I didn't ask you to look at http://cnnfn.com and find
indexes that have done better. I want to know what
you're invested in. You are *not* invested in 6
different foreign markets including gold funds since
10/2.
\_ I have all of the above. And no,
I didn't have all of them since 10/2. I was
more heavily weighted in US before the middle of
\_ Why not? I have all of the above. And no,
this year (Nasdaq had better valuation
then and did relatively better first half of
this year compared to many of the above funds,
etc., but relatively worse in the past few
months). Again check the charts.
\_ This is another investor who pulled most of my
money out of the US 18 months ago. My money
is in EWG (Germany), EWZ (Brazil), ETINX (E*Trade
International Fund), HMC (Honda), QQQ (Nasdaq 100),
STZ (Australian Beer Maker), TTF (Thai Fund), EWH
(Hong Kong), EWH (Singapore), EWJ (Japan) and ASL
(South African Gold producer). All have beaten the
S&P 500. My 401k is 50% OARIX. And yes, I pulled
my money out because of the Administration's
have some US stocks.
I didn't have them since 10/2. I was more
heavily weighted in US before the middle of
this year (Nasdaq had better valuation
then and did relatively better compared
to many of the above funds, etc., but
relatively worse in the past few months).
policies.
\_ Cause stocks were cheap back in Oct02 and Mar03, and there
were few other places to put your money. Also, because the
stock market is good at predicting the future, and it likes
Bush Jr's stimulation plan, at least in the short term. But
the guy above is right about US dollar's decline. It may
lead to inflation soon. There is already a hidden inflation
in terms of high housing, metals and commodity prices.
Inflation in prices of everyday good may follow soon.
\_ Here's why you don't get your economic advice from the motd.
The dollar's decline and every other economic indicator is
pointing to DEflation, *not* INflation. Sheesh. Inflation has
never been lower in your young life. If it rises a few points
it will still be lower than it has been in many years.
\_ Nah, dollar decline implies foreign goods and commodities
become more expensive implies inflation. Other factors
such as productivity gains, cwappy economy, china are
mitigating the effects of inflation so far, but it is not
due to the declining dollar. Inflation is not a good
thing, but it is bearable in a booming economy. What you
\_ It seems that in addition to econ 101, you need
logic 101.
\_ This only works if US consumers respond to the
increased price of foreign goods and therefore
buy less. This has not worked in the auto market,
I am not sure it will in other markets either.
don't want is a cwappy economy combined with inflation.
You need to retake economic 101.
don't want is a cwappy economy combined with inflation.
You need to retake econ 101.
\_ No, no, no, a declining dollar makes our goods and services
cheaper for foreigners to buy and increases exports so it
is cheaper to hire American workers which makes more money
flow through our economy instead of our welfare system and
brings foreign investment here as well which has the same
effect. You need to retake econ P.
\_ It seems that in addition to econ 101, you need
logic 101.
\_ This only works if US consumers respond to the
increased price of foreign goods and therefore
buy less. This has not worked in the auto market,
I am not sure it will in other markets either.
\_ Here is my question, as I am worried. We (USA) is relying on
foreign money for financing our account (trade) deficit as well
as budget deficit. If the dollar continue to tank, that means
at some point, these foreign governments will stop buying
dollar (there is no point to buy a current which is constantly
decline in value, as it means losing money). Once they doing that
we will be forced to raise long term interest rate to attract
more foreign influx of currencies. That would kill off the
economic recovery which my job is depend upon.
This sounds like a dooms day scenario, I am pretty sure I am
wrong. But, where is the fault my logic?
they've learned Engrish, and deserve the rewards they get.
\_ Sorry, sir, but your grammar is flawed. No job for you.
\_ The flaw in your logic is fundamental. You have taken the time
to learn something about economics, and presumably computer
science at this great institution, but never bothered to learn
how tense and number are used in the English language. Of these
three skills: economics, technical computer skills, and
English language communication skills, which do you think is
most likely to help you keep your job? Or get a new job?
or build a business that creates new jobs in America?
My contempt for you is not xenophobia. There vast numbers of
people who somehow manage to operate profesionally in a language
that is not their native language. Those people work harder and
are more people oriented than those who choose to give up once
they've learned Engrish, and deserve the rewards they get.
\_ Sorry, sir, but your grammar is flawed. No job for you.
\_ "There vast numbers of" stuck right out. The flaw in your
grammar is fundamental. (hah!)
\_ Ok, now here is someone with a clue even if he doesn't know it
unlike Mr. "the sky is falling" Inflation Monger above. Yes,
this is a very real thing to be concerned with. One possibility
is that as the European economies continue to slide and crash
and ours continues to pull out of it, the USD will look like a
huge bargain. Then you'll see the Euro crash and the dollar
rise. Then the worry is that if it rises too fast our exports
will suffer and there'll be even more reason to outsource to
the third world.
\_ That's my hope too, but why would foreigners want the
dollar? Stocks are already fully valued, treasuries
pay a pittance. There are better investments elsewhere.
US dollars in asian governments' hands, the stake
Big budget and trade deficits don't help. High
government (federal and state), corporate and personal
US dollars in asian government hands, the stake
debt levels don't help either. Neither does the
out-sourcing trend and unemployment. On the plus side
it is in many of the foreign goverments' interest to
let the dollar slide gradually and not in a panic, so
they continue to buy some dollar, and pray that the
falling dollar will improve US competitiveness and
then its economy. This presents an opportunity
to make some profit off the falling dollar, or at
least not let it hit you on the head.
- inflation monger
\_ certain things such as political stability and military
might seem to be undervalued. US currencies are still
the universal standard in times of crisis.
\_ You are right, but that's about the only thing it
has going for it. Don't exploit a good thing
too much. Besides with like 2 trillion worth of
US dollars in asian governments' hands, the stake
and risk is very high for them. And in times
of crisis, there is always gold, and euro is
now a reasonable alternative.
\_ Except that the EU is the last gasp of the dead
European empires of the past. They're only trying to
regain lost glory. There was a time when almost all
of them had more powerful economies than the US. Now
it takes all of them together to get into that scale
and they're still not making it. Europe will
continue it's slow decline into obscurity until it
one day becomes nothing more than history book
material for American grad students. They're dying
\_ That's my hope too, but why would foreigners want the
dollar? Stocks are already fully valued, treasuries
pay a pittance.
and risk is very high for them. And in times
of crisis, there is always gold, and euro is
now a reasonable alternative.
European empires of the past. They're only trying to
regain lost glory. There was a time when almost all
of them had more powerful economies than the US. Now
it takes all of them together to get into that scale
and they're still not making it. Europe will
continue it's slow decline into obscurity until it
one day becomes nothing more than history book
material for American grad students. They're dying
and they know it. That's hardly a good long term
investment. It's ok for now because what you're
doing is riding up the curve a bit as they improve
effeciency but that's just a blip up on the long
and painful trend downwards.
and they know it. That's hardly a good long term
investment. It's ok for now because what you're
doing is riding up the curve a bit as they improve
effeciency but that's just a blip up on the long
and painful trend downwards.
\_ This is not true. Look at the comparative
performance of any European economy vs.
the US since WWII. Look at GDP/capita
vs. the US in Germany, Norway, Luxemborg, Italy
over the last 20 years. Look at productivity
per hour worked vs the US today. EU has been
long outstripping the US in gains per worker
and continues to do so. The US has gained in
total population, masking this gain, but all
that means is that the US is increasingly a
source of cheap labor.
\_ Heh. It's easy to outstrip US since WWII if
you were starting from a FLAMING WRECK that
was Europe back then. "Fastest growing" is
a crock of an indicator.
\_ I think demographics are working in the
favor of the US in the long run though,
so I agree with you there. The US is
in almost as bad a shape though. I think
it is smart to invest in the economies
that are still going to be growing in
50 years. |
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